Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 191832
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

A transitory ridge will move across the area today. This will
help remove a bit of the moisture that has been over the forecast
area and suppress s some of the convective development this
afternoon and evening. The next big pacific storm will move down
the west coast from the pacnw to northern ca tonight and friday.
The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will
allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough
along the west coast. Have increased wind speeds and gusts across
the board friday. The pacific storm will slowly move inland friday
but the forecast area should remain under a dry slot. The big
story will be increasing south to southwest winds friday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016

A large upper level low will sink south and then stall in the
vicinity of the interior Pac NW states by Saturday. We will be in
the tighter gradient region between this low and the ridge of high
pressure over the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday which will
bring a breezy to windy and warm pattern to our region. Cannot
rule out isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain
Friday and Saturday...but should have a little better coverage on
Sunday as a minor upper level trough moves through. As the upper
level low weakens and moves north, individual shortwave troughs
caught in the broad long wave trough over the western U.s. will
begin to cross the region every 36 hours or so next week.
Precipitable water values will be about half what they are
now...so expect only isolated mainly diurnally driven convection
over the mountains each day. After Saturday, as the region comes
under the trough aloft, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

isold shower and a few storms will fire this afternoon though
coverage is expected to be less than seen yesterday. convection
will form over mountains so main concerns aviation-wise will be
mtn tafs including kase...kege...and ktex where vcts looks good
for now. kmtj and kdro may see some activity but confidence not
high enough to include in taf attm. most precip will end by 03z
with next concern being gusty winds tomorrow starting after 17z or
so. gusts of 30 to even 40 mph are possible at times. the
strongest winds are expected over kcny with lesser winds
elsewhere.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR



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