Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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953
FXUS65 KGJT 261722
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1122 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms today as a weak
wave moves across the area. We should see an uptick and an earlier
start to convection as a result of this wave. Models are showing
increased PWs from the south and fairly steep lapse rates to aid
storm development. The main impact is expected to be brief heavy
rain and gusty outflow winds. Shower activity will diminish this
evening as a ridge of high pressure builds west over the region.
Dry and hot conditions can be expected on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The ridge of high pressure will remain over the Great Basin
through the remainder of the workweek bringing dry and hot
conditions over the forecast area. The ridge of high pressure will
slowly shift east this weekend into early next week. This movement
will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop this weekend with
the main impacts being gusty outflow winds and lightning as the
atmosphere will be dry at the onset of convection. The coverage
and intensity of storms will increase by early next week as the
plume becomes deeper and more established over the southwestern
US. More seasonable temperatures are expected by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Scattered thunderstorm and shower coverage will begin first over
higher terrain this afternoon then begin to impact TAF sites after
22z and continue through 04z. Brief heavy rain may impact
CIGS/VSBY especially at our higher elevation TAF sites with gusty
outflow winds possible at all TAF sites. Otherwise VFR conditions
will dominate through Wednesday.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...Joe



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