Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD


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