Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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535
FXUS65 KGJT 060511
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NNW
TO SSE ACROSS EASTERN UT AND EXTREME WESTERN CO TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM. THEN THE
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL SLIDE NORTH OVER NE UTAH AND SOUTHERN WY
OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHOWER AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASED OVER
SOUTHEAST UT AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP TO MOVE THIS AREA OF NORTH AND A
BIT EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...OUR RESIDENT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL MOVE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SOUTH FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE BETTER
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGES
HAVE INDICATED SOME CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRI AS THE SOUTHERN CA
SYSTEM BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER SCENE.
THEREFORE ON FRI LOOK FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SHEAR
CHARACTERISTICS ALONG OUR NORTHERN EDGE...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF TODAY`S DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS/PCPN.

EXPECT THAT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FRI NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSETTLED AIR
MASS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE DETAILS OF THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. TODAY`S
MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED A MORE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM COMPARED WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUNS` MORE COHESIVE SINGLE MAIN CIRCULATION. THIS MAY
BE DUE TO BETTER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION AS THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF ROBUST CIRCULATIONS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND SUN. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH CIRCULATION PASSES. POPS GENERALLY SHOW A
BROAD-BRUSHED FORECAST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY
MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS WILL SHOW AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE DIURNAL ASSIST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE MILD.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K-11K FEET. BUT
CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY DRIVE SNOW...GRAUPEL OR SNOW PELLETS
LOWER AT TIMES.

THE NORTH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORED ON MON AS A LOBE OF
ENERGY/MOISTURE WILL WRAP-AROUND THE EXITING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WITH LESS CONFIDENCE...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SEPARATE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS
A TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TREND WILL THEN
REVERSE FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

A BAND SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT EASTERN UTAH INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KVEL AND KCNY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GUSTY
WINDS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH CAUSING SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



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