Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 062115
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE N CA COAST TROUGH TUE WITH A FLAT
MOISTURE-INFUSED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

MOISTURE IS DOWN A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 3 PM...THESE STORMS WERE MOSTLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BUT EXPECT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN AGAIN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
STORMS AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.

ON TUESDAY THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL START OUT AROUND AN INCH...AND
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH WILL BE
FAVORED AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THAT AREA...AND MODELS SHOW THE
BEST MOISTURE OVER NW CO/NE UT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE WEST COAST LOW COMES ONSHORE ON WED/WED NIGHT. THE LOW THEN
OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN EVENTUALLY
BRUSHING THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THEREFORE LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY LATE FRI FOR A DOWNTURN IN MOISTURE...AND
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...THIS
COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RISING TEMPERATURES FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING OVER ADJACENT
VALLEYS. AIRPORTS EAST OF A KCAG-KRIL-KDRO LINE FACE A 25 TO 35
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THEIR RUNWAYS WITH 10
TO 20 PERCENT PROBABILITIES WEST OF THE LINE. THESE STORMS MAY
LOWER CIGS BRIEFLY BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH VSBY POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CRITERIA IN HEAVY RAIN. UNPREDICTABLE AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE
THIS EVENING BUT WON/T DIMINISH ENTIRELY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



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