Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 282109
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
309 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The short term forecast continues to be influenced by a closed
low over the Four Corner region. Weak forcing associated with this
system continues to show mainly stratiform shower activity
rotating counterclockwise around this low. As the atmosphere
continues to destabilize this afternoon, expect to see more
thunderstorms develop into the early evening hours with the
strongest cells generating brief heavy rain, small hail and
frequent lightning. Shower activity will slowly diminish
overnight, but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms
continuing after midnight...especially along the Continental
Divide south of Interstate 70.

The closed low will slowly shift east over northcentral New Mexico
by Monday with the main focus of showers and thunderstorms to
remain over the southern half of the forecast area with lesser
coverage across the north. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish
after sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the western
half of the CONUS through the workweek as a trough of low
pressure moves inland and impacts the Pacific Northwest. There
will be a slight decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity on
Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered activity over the southern
mountains and isolated activity elsewhere. Moist southwest flow
will increase by midweek with an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity expected into the weekend. As the Pacific storm system
moves east across the northern Rockies the southwest gradient will
increase by late Friday. Seasonable temperatures are expected
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Moisture wrapping around a low pressure system that will move into
northwest New Mexico this evening, will keep the chance of
showers and thunderstorms across our forecast area this afternoon
and into this evening. Thunderstorms will become more prevalent by
around 20z. Then both showers and thunderstorms will diminish from
02-03z. Heavy rain may be possible with the stronger storms and
may briefly drop cigs/vsby into the MVFR category at some TAF
sites or other airports in the CWA. Mountains may be obscured at
times in showers. Most of the precipitation will occur south of a
line from the Flat Tops Mountains to Canyonlands airport. North of
that line conditions will be drier. After 03z VFR is expected
area-wide.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...EH



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