Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1223 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

High pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest and
continue a hot and dry pattern across the region. Temperatures
will remain about 10 degrees above normal. Expecting precipitable
water to decrease to near one half inch across the area by this
afternoon so little convective activity should occur this
afternoon. As usual for this time of year, the San Juans has the
best chance to see any showers or thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Expecting possible gusty winds with high- based
convection...but actual precipitation will be unlikely with
development. Similar day on Friday with temps potentially a couple
of degrees cooler just due to slightly lower heights as the high
pressure shifts slightly westward.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The dry heat continues through Friday. Over the weekend and into
next week, northern Pacific low pressure systems dig into the
Pacific Northwest then track east. This flattens the Subtropical
Ridge and nudges it east. This allows marginal monsoonal moisture
to push back north of the Four Corners beginning Saturday night.
The GFS has precipitable water values approaching one inch in the
southern valleys through Tuesday, decreasing to around 0.7 inch in
the north. The GFS shows deeper moisture invading next Wednesday.

The return of moisture next week will shave some heat off the
afternoons but dewpoints back into the mid to upper 40s will make
for muggy conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A few showers and storms are possible over the higher terrain but
they`ll be very isolated in nature. No impacts are expected for
any TAF sites. Expect terrain driven winds.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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