Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271639
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1039 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND WITH MOST OF THE REGION`S
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOME 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY AND
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN NW FLOW HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE REGION...THICKEST IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA.

THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT IS FLATTENED BY A TROUGH
RACING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ALONG
OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY SET OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THERE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH LOOK TO REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY UNDER A
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST TUESDAY WE
BEGIN A PATTERN CHANGE TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT PROMISES TO
BRING A COOL DOWN AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE SINKS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY A WEAKENED RIDGE TRIES TO REBOUND OVER THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PUMPS
SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR A CHANCE
OF LATE-DAY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THERE. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE IS DECIMATED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. MOST OF THE TROUGH`S ENERGY WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS PROGGED TO BE
COLDER. A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS ARE STILL
LOW FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. STILL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BE UNSETTLED...WINDY...WITH SNOW
RETURNING MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR A FURTHER COOL DOWN AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOWS PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM KSBS/K3MW TO KCCU
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STRONGER NW WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME
TURBULENCE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS AND ON THE LEESIDE
OF RIDGES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAD



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