Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302310
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 35
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALOFT...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WERE
EJECTING/STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW. ACCORDING TO
LATEST RADAR DATA...PRECIP ECHOES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN COLBY KANSAS
AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOWEVER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET
ANOTHER FACTOR AS ANY PRECIP WOULD LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THEREFORE...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER.
FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO CHANGE TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10:1 OR SO DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOG. WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN
AND MOISTURE POOLING ON THE NORTH/EAST EDGES AND LIGHT WINDS...
VISIBILITIES COULD EASILY DROP. SOME GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
FORECASTING DENSE FOG BUT DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TOMORROW...PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
AND MOISTURE SOURCE PASSES EAST. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION. BASED ON TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS PRECIP TYPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITION
TIME FOR SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF CAA IN
CORRELATION WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM LIGHT RAIN TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ESE
FLOW(WITH APPROACHING RIDGE) THAT WILL BE REPLACING THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE...WILL CREATE SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL CREATE SOME MORNING FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER REGION...DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL LAST
GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY BEFORE MODELS SHIFT SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA AFTER
FROPA. A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE DRYING OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...A WIDE RANGE OF NUMBERS FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF EACH ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. A DOWNTREND IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP MON/TUESDAY WITH STRONG WAA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH RIDGE TO
THE EAST. WEDNESDAY HAS NEXT SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS OPENING
UP THE CWA TO WARM AIR INTRUSION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30F FOR SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...UP TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 60S FOR REST OF TIMEFRAME...WARMEST MON/TUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN RANGE OF TEENS TO M/U20S. EACH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
TIGHT BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

KGLD AND KMCK WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THIS
LOW WILL BRING PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. FOG WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH THESE ELEMENTS
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS


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