Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
953 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 951 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Updated for expected areas of precipitation for the remainder of
the night and into tomorrow afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...a mix of psunny to
msunny skies as the region lies west of a warm front currently over
the central portion of Kansas. Temps are ranging in the lower to mid
70s w/ dewpts ranging from the 45f to 50f west to the lower to mid
60s east due to the proximity to a warm front. To our west...a slow
moving upper low over the 4-corners region of the country will make
its way towards the Tri State region overnight.

Do expect areal coverage of trw to increase as the afternoon/evening
hours progress...which will be in tandem to the approach of the
upper low to our southwest. Strong shear...current sb cape values
approaching 1500-3000 j/kg especially in locales closest to the warm
front...could produce severe storms with tornadoes. The area could
also see 1-2" hail...winds 60-70mph or higher with any storms.
Training of thunderstorms could also bring heavy rainfall and
potential flooding to some areas.

The combination of these these factors has put the area into mainly
an enhanced to moderate risk for severe wx...which has resulted in a
tornado watch for the cwa until 01z-03z.

Going into Friday with the upper low will begin to move over the
cwa...model dynamics for severe wx will shift east of the
cwa...but do expect trw/rw thru the day due to the slow mvmnt of
the system.

For temps...overnight lows tonight and daytime highs Friday will be
highly dependent on areal coverage of clouds/precip over the area.
Looking for lows to range in the lower to mid 50s and highs Friday
to range from the mid 60s west to the mid 70s east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Upper low will be moving over the area Friday night which result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours
then gradually pulling out to the northeast after midnight. Some
light precipitation may linger in the far northeast counties
around McCook through Saturday morning before ending. There will
be a limited severe threat early Friday evening but as the surface
cold front sweeps through the severe threat will end relatively
early Friday night.

Storms on Saturday afternoon will be isolated and tied to surface
heating in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado/Palmer Divide.
Upper forcing will be quite weak with only a hint of a shortwave
trough in the zonal flow. Surface instability will also be weak so
do not think there will be much of a severe threat. An increase in
activity is expected on Sunday as the upper flow becomes southwest
with a weak embedded shortwave trough. Moderate instability is
forecast but deep layer shear of only 20-30kts will probably
keep any severe threat on the low end.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next week with a cut
off low over the northern plains resulting in general troughiness
across the central plains. However by the middle of the week that
system will lift into central Canada with shortwave ridging trying
to build over the central Rockies and adjacent plains. As a result
expect precipitation chances to decrease and temperatures increase
during that time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 449 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected with widespread thunderstorms
producing strong gusty winds and possibly hail through about 07Z.
Conditions will transition to IFR between 06Z-08Z with isolated to
scattered showers continuing through the remainder of the TAF
period. expect conditions to transition back up through MVFR
between 17Z-20Z and VFR conditions after 22Z.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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