Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 051121
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO TH EAST TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

850MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.  MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA.  EVEN
WARMER MID 50S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELPING THE
WARMING PROCESS.  UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS
RISE TO 8 C. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 20S RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

A WEAK ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTHERN JET WILL RETREAT INTO CANADA AND TAKE IT WITH IT MOST OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE OF THUMB. GFS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF ON THE NEXT TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AND THE EC AT THIS POINT AND KEEP IT DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS



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