Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PLAN TO RESTRICT POPS TO EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE
FORCING IS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE ON TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SINCE LIFT IS NOT INDICATED
TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS INDICATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO DECREASE
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LEAVE CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING, CAPE AND SHEAR
ARE INDICATED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS NEXT WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT
EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 60S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL ANTICIPATED AT KMCK THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS
DECK BUT FELT STRATUS MOST LIKELY STALLS BETWEEN KMCK AND KGLD.
THEREFORE...VFR FORECAST ISSUED FOR KGLD. STRATUS BURNS OFF BY
LATE MORNING. STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO...
ADVANCING EAST THROUGH EVENING. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE
VCSH/VCTS MENTION INTO FORECAST DUE TO ISOLATED STORM NATURE.
NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTH BY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH



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