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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181756
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DRY LINE FAINTLY DETECTABLE ON KGLD RADAR AT 1745Z FROM NEAR ST
FRANCIS SOUTHWEST TO BURLINGTON AND THEN SOUTH TOWARDS CHEYENNE
WELLS. IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MIXING EAST INTO KANSAS AND SHOULD
BE THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS BEST FURTHER EAST FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT EVEN NEAR THE DRY
LINE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE AREA BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY...IN
FACT IN WESTERN AREAS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
FORECAST...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO PRIMARILY IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH HAIL UP TO THE
QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN THREAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD CAN BEST BE DESCRIBED AS UNSETTLED AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH TROUGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS
SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW THIS DEVELOPS...AN
OVERALL COOLER PATTERN IS LIKELY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE HEATING
NEEDED ON SUNDAY TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN
NO CLEAR NEAR SFC FORCING MECHANISM...AM HESITANT TO INCREASE POPS
OUTSIDE OF 30-50 RANGE AND HAVE NUDGED GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVENT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO AREA ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE HERE AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MAINLY TO COOL TEMPS A
BIT.

UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BE PRESENT AT 500 MB FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PLAINS REGION. HIGHER
500MB JET MAXES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI STATE
AREA.  700MB SHOWS STRONGER JET MAXES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND 850MB
HAS SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHER JET SPEEDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME UPLIFT FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BECOMES ELONGATED AS THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL
FLOW.  THE ENSUING TROUGH WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER JET SPEEDS STAYING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEFLECTS
THE JET STREAM AROUND THE AREA.  850MB THETA E VALUES REMAIN
MODERATE BETWEEN 310 AND 315 K AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.5
AND 0.8 SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  850MB
SHOULD MOISTEN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SITUATE OVER IOWA WEDNESDAY...BUT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD
AFFECT THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  LACK OF
CAPE...UNSTABLE LIFTED INDEX TEMPERATURES...AND LOW TT INDEX
DEMONSTRATES LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT MORE WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK
AS WELL AS  MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE AREA COULD
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST FOR TUESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
FOR SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER THAT TIME WITH
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...024