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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160831
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE COMING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1800 TO 2400 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40KTS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE AREA.
STEERING WIND WILL MOVE STORMS SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND CHANCE POPS SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
EAST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TREND OF
RISING HEIGHTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
RESULTING IN A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE AREA SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING...BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLIGHT SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DENSE CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH
COULD PREVENT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRATUS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES WHERE THERE IS SOME
CLEARING PRESENTLY. FOG IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE MINIMAL EVEN THOUGH GLD RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL
AND MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
KGLD TODAY WHILE WINDS AT KMCK SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO
AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ALSO HINT THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY/FRONT LOCATED NEAR KMCK. HAVE NOT MENTIONED TS FOR NOW
BUT A MENTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...RRH