Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 080936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH
INTO CANADA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD LAS
VEGAS NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER IN THE
40-50KT RANGE AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS OF 50-
55KTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 5MB OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAV/MEN/LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALL SUPPORT GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. FOR TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND AM
ONLY EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT BEST.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES AM SHOOTING FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWPACK DOESNT EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED COOLER AIR MOVING OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE NORTH OF THESE
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE READINGS TO BE A FEW DEGREES UNDER WHATS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TUESDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5-8F WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TO MID 40S EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY) AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON WEDNESDAY MUCH WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND UNDER FULL MIXING COULD
SUPPORT LOW TO UPPER 60S. WE`LL HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK FOR
MANY WHICH WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING TO OCCUR. WILL BLEND BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS WITH PARTIAL MIXING AT 850MB TO COME UP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EAST AND 60-65 ACROSS THE FAR WEST DOWN
TO TRIBUNE AND LEOTI. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW TO
UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHILE THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST AND FLATTENING AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO MORPH OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL KEEP THE EASTERN SECTIONS NEARLY 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SETUP TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EFFECTS
DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS. AROUND 23Z OR 00Z (TUESDAY) WINDS
WILL FALL AT OR JUST BELOW 12KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS
LOOK TO BACK A BIT TO THE WEST AND/OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.