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000
FXUS63 KGLD 131131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP POPS NIL FOR THE TROUGH
THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT BUT SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN NIL POPS FOR THE TIME PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WESTERN FA TO AROUND 40 IN THE
EAST. A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXISTS SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...UPPER 30S.  850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO
AROUND 6C IN THE WEST ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER TEENS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MID 20`S SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE TRI-STATE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.  MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
COLD FRONT MID WEEK...KEEPING IT NORTH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN ADDITION THE ARCTIC FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
DELAYED AS MODELS SLOW DOWN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL  BE
THURSDAY EVENING.  ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE SPLIT 500MB JET BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TYPICALLY SPLIT JET FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIP. DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA AS STORMS EITHER REMAIN NORTH OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THERE IS SOME LIFT SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SO
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SNOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

WIND WILL GET BREEZY AT KGLD AND KMCK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA TODAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT KMCK SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS