Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 142337
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
437 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 429 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Isolated snow showers are continuing over our central CWA as main
trough axis is still transitioning southeast and pocket of
negative theta E lapse rates lingers over NW Kansas for the next
few hours. A report of 1/4 mile vis was relayed by a spotter in
northern Sherman county with one of the heavier showers. These are
transitioning southward quickly so while intense they would not
amount to much in the way of accumulation (maybe a dusting on
grassy/elevated surfaces) due to warm ground temps. SPS and web
graphics issued to highlight the brief threat for the next few
hours, and I adjusted weather grids accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Currently instability snow showers are moving across the area. As
we approach sunset, this precipitation will rapidly end. Otherwise,
winds will drop off dramatically near and shortly after sunset. A
further decrease and shift to the west is expected by late
evening. This combined with decreasing cloud cover and dewpoints
will allow low temperatures to drop near or slightly below
guidance.

Flow aloft tomorrow will shift to the northwest. Models are showing
a decent amount of mid and upper level cloud cover. This will offset
the increasing 850 mb temperatures and downslope winds or would go
even warmer than what I have in there. Still temperatures will range
from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

The synoptic pattern over the CONUS has been characterized by
ridging aloft along the Pacific coast/Intermountain West,
troughing aloft along/east of the MS river, and NW/NNW flow aloft
over the High Plains and Front Range of the Rockies for some time
now, but not for much longer.

A rather chaotic transition is expected over the CONUS Sat-Wed as
the synoptic pattern undergoes an effective reversal, with
pronounced troughing aloft over the Intermountain West/Rockies
and pronounced ridging aloft along the SE coast expected by the
end of next week. A fair amount of uncertainty is present w/regard
to the forecast this weekend through early-mid next week. At this
time, no significant weather is anticipated over the High Plains
through the middle of next week. However, long range guidance is
in good agreement w/regard to a reversal in the synoptic pattern by
late next week. Thus, an increasing potential for significant
weather (characterized by below normal temperatures and above
normal chances for precipitation) appears likely to develop late
next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 433 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Brief IFR vis with snow should end around the valid time of the
current TAF period at KGLD, with VFR conditions then prevailing
through the rest of the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds should
also diminish early in the TAF period. Winds should shift to the
west then southwest later this evening (after 02-03Z) and
decrease below 10kt. through midday Friday before increasing once
again to the 12-14kt range.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DR



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