Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1134 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Issued at 730 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Have updated the forecast to adjust pops for the area based on
latest radar trends. Currently with boundary extending from NE
Colorado up into western portions of Nebraska...only a few
isolated showers/storms are developing at this time. Model trends
look to keep most/all activity for the rest of the evening over
northern and western zones w/ a transition to mainly northern tier
zones by 12z Monday...should any remain. Also made some slight
adjustments to clouds cover as a result...with no other changes at
this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Monday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of the area
in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of Interstate
70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

For both taf sites...mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast
period. VCSH/VCTS thru 09z especially for KMCK where gusts could
reach 25 to 35 kts. By 00z Tuesday VFR/MVFR mix as trw/rw occurs
with 4-5sm in rain with ceilings bkn060. Winds generally ranging
from ESE to S thru the forecast period from 10-20kts.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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