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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201955
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny skies for all
areas as area remains in cooler airmass on north side of front.
Temperatures are currently ranging in the mid 60s in the far
west...up to the mid 70s in far eastern zones along with light
variable winds.

For the rest of the afternoon on thru the evening hours...high
pressure remains in control during this timeframe providing
another nice cool and dry night. Looking for overnight lows to
range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. With high pressure
nosing southward thru the Plains Region overnight...area will see
a wind shift to the southerly direction.

Going into Thursday...another round of hot weather returns to the
region. High pressure sets up to the east of the area thru the
day...with low pressure/lee-side troughing over the eastern
Rockies. Strong surface gradient/WAA develops by midday over the
entire area. With H5/H7 winds coming from the SW...expecting
strong downslope drying conditions giving the region critical fire
wx conditions. Please refer to the Fire Wx section below.

With the area forecasted to see lower and mid 90s for high temps
Thursday...near record/record high numbers are possible...
especially for locales along and east of Highway 25. Please refer
to the Climate section below for further information.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Going into Thursday night...with southerly flow intact over the
area after sunset...region will be looking at a slightly warmer
evening than expected tonight with overnight lows only dropping
into the mid 50s through the mid 60s. Some locales in the far
east could even stay up near the 70F mark. The overnight
timeframe Thursday marks the area going from "one extreme to the
other". Hot and dry conditions are set to be replaced with
eventual cooler temps and precipitation.

For the timeframe starting this Friday and on into next
Monday...the CWA will be wedged in between a strong H5 ridge east
and a deep trough over the western portion of the country. At the
surface moisture/precipitation will be focused over the area as a
frontal boundary sets up over the Plains...which is the morphed
remnants of the trough over the region from Thursday.

Strong southerly flow will provide large QPF potential for the
area in the form of moderate to heavy showers...especially in the
form of thunderstorms. Instability and dynamics in place for
Friday into Saturday for the region to see strong to severe
storms crop up. The SPC currently has a Marginal Risk for severe
on Friday that may get upgraded later tonight.

RW/TRW expected to continue thru the weekend as moisture feed
persists from the south. PW values in the 1-2" range will create
precipitation area-wide in the 2-3" range thru the entire period.

As a result...overall concerns for Friday on into next Monday
will be the potential for strong to severe storms to start...
transitioning into potential persistent moderate/heavy rainfall
from rw/trw...enhanced further as upper trough shifts eastward
off the Rockies for the latter half of the weekend into next
Monday.

Flooding concerns will also ensue with the potential for
widespread 2-3" rain totals over the 96-hour period. There could
even be localized higher amounts...which would depend on storm
track and movement/training of storms in the area.

The resulting cloud cover/precipitation upcoming to the area will
provide a stretch of below normal temperatures. The area will see
daytime highs from the 70s Saturday into the 60s by next Monday.
Before precip arrives/develops Friday the CWA could see several
hours in the upper 80/lower 90 range before cooling off.

For next Tuesday and Wednesday...mainly dry conditions returns
with high pressure over the region with an outside chance for
showers Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions expected for both sites with a SKC-FEW250 mix.
Winds will be variable for both sites thru about 00z-01z
Thursday...then SE around 10kts. By 14z-15z...winds shift to the S
around 10kts. LLWS for both sites starting around 00z-01z thru
14z-15z...180-200 degrees @ 40-45kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Low dewpoint temps will develop behind a surface trough/dry line
on Thursday, and combine with unseasonably hot temperatures to
produce low RH values of 15% or lower. Confidence is high that
winds will be 25 mph or higher during the day across our CWA. The
combination of the aforementioned has prompted the issuance of the
Red Flag Warning for the entire Tri State region for Thursday
afternoon into early evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

With another day for the entire Tri State region in the 90s...here
are the record high temperatures for Thursday September 21st. Some
locales(especially along/east of Highway 25) will be within a range
of 5 degrees or less:

Goodland KS      97F IN 2005

McCook NE       100F IN 2005

Burlington CO    96F IN 2005

Hill City KS    102F IN 2005

Colby KS         97F IN 1986

Tribune KS       95F IN 1986

Yuma CO          97F IN 2010

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Thursday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN