479
FXUS63 KGLD 131835
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1235 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 5-10% chance for shower/storms this afternoon along a boundary
  roughly from Flagler to Norton. Sudden/sporadic wind gusts of
  50-60 mph are possible.

- Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (
  hottest on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in
  the 70s/80s mid week.

- Daily chances for showers and storms begin Tuesday during the
  afternoon to evening hours. Some storms may be strong to
  severe especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Dissipating stratus across SW portions of Cheyenne county Colorado
is ongoing this morning yielding a relatively sunny and warmer day
than what was experienced yesterday as high temperatures are
forecast to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.
Winds are forecast to become lighter as the day goes on as a sagging
frontal boundary looks to set up across the area which will
essentially eliminate our wind field; outside of this boundary
however (eastern Colorado and eastern portions of the CWA) some
sporadic gusts up to 20 mph are possible with diurnal mixing. I
did add in some 5-10% chance pops across this boundary which
based on latest guidance looks to be draped roughly Flagler up
through Norton. Overall forcing is nebulous but RAP forecast
soundings do show us reaching our convective temperatures so
it`s not impossible for a rogue shower or storm to develop with
severe downburst winds possible as inverted v soundings are in
place. The most likely outcome with this boundary other than
shifting winds is cumulus development along it. No landspout
threat is currently anticipated due to the lack of strong
surface convergence. Southerly winds are forecast to continue
through the night with some wind gusts along and west of Highway
25 of 20-25 mph as a low level jet develops across the area.
Some stratus can`t be ruled out as well across eastern Colorado
into Monday morning.

Monday, high pressure across the western CONUS begins to break down
through the day. A surface trough then nudges into the area which is
forecast to bring some breezier winds around 25-35 mph to western
and central portions of the area. Even warmer temperatures than
today are currently forecast with high temperatures in the low to
mid 90s across the forecast area. The afternoon hours are currently
forecast to remain dry but could see some increase in coverage of
Palmer Divide storms after 6pm MT moving into eastern Colorado with
a weak shortwave off of the mountains. No severe storms are
currently anticipated with these as they should be on the
weakening trend of things as they move in, but will need to keep
a close eye on stronger winds as they dissipate along with some
heat burst potential as well. A stronger low level jet is
forecast to develop Monday night and into Tuesday morning
leading to breezy winds continuing overnight with gusts around
30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A potentially more active long term period may be in store starting
on Tuesday. Low pressure across Colorado is forecast to be in place;
the exact location of this will dictate if storms occur in the CWA.
ECMWF ensembles suggest still a large range of outcomes with the
low, if the low remain in Colorado then the storm threat will
increase however some suggest the low will begin to eject into the
area which will eliminate any storm potential. The positioning of
this also will be where a dry line will set up. Looking at the NAM
which typically handles dry line placement the best has low to mid
30 dew points along the Palmer to the low 50s at Goodland and low 60
further east. Previous runs are similar along with a slight drying
trend that occurred for the 12Z run so it will be interesting
to see if that trend continues. Based on this do think we can
get some dry line convection if the low can stay in Colorado,
the best forcing looks to be Highway 36 and north into Nebraska
where some weak 500mb jet stream diffluence is seen for the
Goodland CWA; further north into Nebraska a cold front looks to
be in place along with better upper level support increasing
storm chances; a southern trend is also seen as well with this
500mb jet support. For the Goodland CWA, at this time am leaning
towards some storms along the dry line and more isolated in
nature along and north of Highway 36 capable of large hail and
damaging winds as wind shear is around 20-30 knots, stronger to
the north. If the upper level support should continue to shift
south then the storm chances would increase for the area.
Continued warm air advection through the evening hours would
help support additional back building storms to occur as well

Wednesday, appears to be a little more supportive for showers and
storms for the area during the late afternoon and through the
evening hours. A fairly potent shortwave looks to move off of the
Front Range during the late afternoon hours which will be an initial
source of lift. Further to the north the cold front mentioned above
is forecast to move into the area providing another source of
lift for the area as dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s
should be enough for convection along the front. If not then
cold pools from convection from the shortwave could also help
spark additional storms. There still remains some discrepancies
however with guidance, the ECMWF is quicker with the wave
ejection than the NAM and slower with the front which leads to
better moisture for the area and delays any rainfall with the
front roughly 12 hours or so. If this scenario does occur then
better moisture would be in place along with the potential for
an all hazards event; looking at ensemble data this seems to be
roughly a 5-10% chance of occurring as most of the members
supports a quicker frontal passage (which also may end up
eliminating the severe threat all together) and is typically
what does occur. Needless to say there is still a lot that needs
to be worked out.

Thursday and through the remainder of the extended period continues
to suggest the potential for weak daily waves moving through the
area due to larger scale synoptic troughing and a surface high
in place across the southern Plains and the southeast CONUS.
Some signal for some better monsoonal flow working up through
New Mexico and eastern Arizona next weekend which may continue
to indicate continuation of the active pattern.

Temperature wise for the extended period. Warm to hot temperatures
are currently forecast on Tuesday with highs in the 90s to low 100s
due to some warming downsloping flow. Some moisture is still
forecast to be in place which lead to some spotty areas where Heat
Advisory criteria with heat indices around 105 degrees may be
close or be met so upcoming shifts will need to keep an eye on
that potential. Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will be
dependent on the speed of the cold front. If the front moves
through Wednesday night instead of Wednesday afternoon/evening
then high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
Thursday; if its quicker to move through then highs may need to
be raised as the cooler air mass looks to be fairly progressive.
Late week and into next weekend will see the potential for
above normal temperatures to return as the surface high across
the southern Plains and the southeast returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1029 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions are currently forecast for each terminal. Winds
are forecast to become SSE through the afternoon as a boundary
sags into the area. Along this boundary am forecasting a cumulus
field to develop around 20Z along with a 5-10% chance of
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms through 02Z.
Confidence is low in the storms developing due to the lack of
forcing and the limited spatial nature of any convection
precludes me from introducing into the TAF. If this starts to
look more probable of occurring over then an AMD will be
warranted. A more southerly wind component is forecast to occur
overnight along with some wind gusts up to 20 knots at KGLD as a
weak LLJ develops.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg