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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191727
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 16Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 800-1200
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 15-25KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.

VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.

BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS OCCURRED AT BOTH TERMINALS AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WELL SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL MAINLY THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...99