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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221105
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO TODAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA
IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL THICKNESS PROGS SHOW A 60-90
METER RISE...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 20 DEGREES CELSIUS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AKRON COLORADO TO SCOTT CITY KANSAS. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF THIS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORT/WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...AND DEPICTS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS NO WAVE AND IS DRY.
06Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA...BUT WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING...THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ALSO...
EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE. THE END RESULT...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
REALLY DO NOT VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z...AND SO MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO APPROACH ZERO LATE TONIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH EAST UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL PRODUCE SOME STRATUS/FOG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. SO...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE 60S. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STABLE
AIR MASS...SO EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AT BEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
FINALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GFS IS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AROUND 200 J/KG...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION SOME CONVECTION.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STRATUS/FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WILL CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AFTER 18Z WITH PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. A
DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR AROUND 700 MB. EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LENDS
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH GFS IN PLACING UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT TIMING OF THESE IS DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EVOLVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IS OVER
KMCK. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE SITE BY 14Z. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR. CONDITIONS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE. INDICATED
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH SITES AFTER 09Z...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN FOG. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...MENTZER