Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
540 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

After morning fog and low clouds erode, expecting partly sunny
skies. Lee trough/dry line will sharpen up during the afternoon
roughly along Hwy 25/83 from Culbertson to Scott City, following
the latest HRRR guidance. West of the dry line, still looking at
critical fire weather conditions as dew points plummet and winds
increase. As the upper trough begins to emerge from the southern
Rockies and temperatures cool aloft, coupled with very warm
surface temperatures, weak to moderate instability will develop
along and east of the dry line. However, that region also remains
capped for much of the afternoon, with only a very small window of
opportunity late in the afternoon for surface based convection to
initiate. So while confidence may be lacking and pops relatively
low, any storms that do develop will be in a highly sheared, low
moisture environment. LCLs will be very high, 10kft or above,
suggesting wind will be the primary threat with stronger storms,
with hail a secondary threat. Given the high LCLs, the tornado
risk seems rather low despite the good deep layer shear.

A fairly substantial dry slot overtakes the southern/eastern
areas later this evening which will end the thunderstorm threat.
After midnight, the upper low closes off and deepens in southwest
Kansas and a trowal develops on the backside, resulting in a
significant band of wraparound precipitation in northeast
Colorado. Rain will likely be changing to or mixed with snow
late, with far western areas of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties of
Colorado possibly seeing some accumulations. Confidence is rather
low given the warm surface temperatures, but will need to be
looked at again closely since there is the potential for several
inches of wet snow and blowing snow. This band of precipitation
will gradually move east through the day on Friday with
high/categorical pops. The precipitation could also mix down
strong winds to the surface late tonight in northeast Colorado,
and through the day on Friday in parts of northwest Kansas. Issued
a high wind watch for areas most likely to see the strongest
winds. Precipitation will wind down Friday night as the upper low
pulls away.

Skies will be clearing for Saturday as shortwave ridge rebuilds in
the wake of the upper low. Temperatures will rebound to near or
slightly above normal with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Precipitation chances continue in the extended as a couple
disturbances impact the region. Temperatures remain near to above
normal during the period.

On Sunday, a relatively weak upper trough moves from Colorado across
Kansas, generating chances for rain showers for the area. Some snow
showers could mix in during the overnight hours mainly west of the
Colorado border where temperatures are colder. On Monday, a
shortwave ridge develops behind this disturbance and ahead of the
next trough forming over the west coast. Dry weather is anticipated
through the evening.

A potentially strong system moves into and across the desert
southwest late Monday through the end of the extended. There is
still a lot of uncertainty with the track and timing of this system,
but another period of rain is expected with it midweek.

Highs start out in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Sunday, warm into the
low/mid 60s area wide on Monday and Tuesday, and dip back into the
50s on Wednesday. Lows generally remain in the 30s throughout.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 536 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Morning low clouds and patchy fog will lift by mid morning, but
could see a brief period of IFR at either KGLD or KMCK. Surface
winds will increase from the south by late morning and continue
through the afternoon. Widely scattered, high based thunderstorms
will develop in the late afternoon and continue through the
evening. Some storms could produce gusty winds and large hail, but
coverage will be rather limited. Overnight, ceilings will gradually
lower as low pressure develops in southwest Kansas. Winds will
back to northeast and increase towards sunrise Friday morning.
Rain will develop towards the very end of the TAF period at 12z.


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8
     PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001-013-027-041.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for

     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for



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