Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220018
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 517 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

NICE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED CURRENT ZONE FORECAST TO SHOW TREND IN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS RIGHT ALONG OUR EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP...LOOKING FOR LESS INTRUSION OF THESE CLOUDS BEFORE EXITING
SO HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY...AND WILL MONITOR OVER NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO SEE IF TREND HOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH TO
WARM UP THE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND
SOME FOG TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. RETURN FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE BY THE TIME SUN GOES DOWN AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. SO WOULD EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO BE ABLE TO RETURN
NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

HRRR FOLLOWED BY RAP HAVE BEEN DOING VERY WELL IN THE DEPICTION OF
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. BASED ON THAT AND THE OBSERVATIONS
TO OUR SOUTH...WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP VERY CLOSELY
FOR THE CLOUD COVER AND FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IF HRRR ENDS
UP BEING RIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION.

FOG AND STRATUS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS/INCREASES THE WINDS FROM
THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE FOG SHOULD END BY MID MORNING. ONCE THE
FOG/CLOUDS CLEAR OFF THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THROUGH 700 MB. COMBINATION OF DRY AIR MASS AND
GROUND COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARMUP.

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. THE NWP AND ESPECIALLY THE 2 METER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING COOL DURING THE LAST WEEK. AT THIS TIME WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST PLACES WITH 60S...MOSTLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S....ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONTS UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME. OVERALL...THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF MAJOR PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SYSTEMS REACHING THE
REGION. PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THANKSGIVING. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THEN...A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AT LOW LEVELS WHEN
THE COOLER AIR INTRUDES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT BUT THE QUESTION OVER THE
PAST FEW FORECAST RUNS HAS BEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS PRECIPITATION
REACHES THE GROUND. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...THERE SHOULD BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND AHEAD OF INCOMING POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR. THEREFORE...
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AND MAINTAINED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MENTION SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH PERSISTENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THAT THE REGION WILL BE ABLE TO REACH MEX/MET/ECE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THIS
THINKING. REGARDING THE WINDS...MODELS ARE NOT IN STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR. ANY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER ALSO MESSES WITH
ANTICIPATED MIXING HEIGHTS SO HARD TO TELL HOW STRONG THE MIXED DOWN
GUSTS WILL BE AT THIS TIME. WITHOUT A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PRESENT...CURRENTLY DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR
WIND EVENT. TYPICAL COLD/WINDY HIGH PLAINS DAYS ARE FORECAST WITH
NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH...GUSTING TO 45 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.

BEYOND MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CR INITIALIZATION
PROCEDURE DID NOT INCLUDE POPS AND WITH A DRY LAYER OF AIR AT THE
SURFACE...THOUGHT THIS WAS APPROPRIATE. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
AT A LATER TIME BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION WITH THIS RUN.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IT IS HARD TO TELL
HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THIS FRONT WILL REACH AND THERE IS A STRONG CHANCE
FOR A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
THANKSGIVING FORECAST CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 38 DEGREES AT MCCOOK
NEBRASKA...44 AT GOODLAND KANSAS AND 52 AT KIT CARSON COLORADO.
MODELS TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THANKSGIVING DOWN AND
BELIEVE THIS IS ACCURATE CONSIDERING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

KGLD WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
MIX OF SKC-SCT150. WINDS SSW AROUND 10KTS.

KMCK WILL SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF SKC AND
SCT150-250. BKN020 IS POSSIBLE FROM 02Z-04Z SAT. WINDS SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING WSW AROUND 10KTS BY 06Z SAT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



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