Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Issued at 348 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Quick update to forecast to adjust sky cover to account for
increase mid/high cloud associated with approaching front. Moving
in a bit quicker from earlier forecast. No other changes at this


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...the area is currently
looking at clear skies w/ temperatures ranging in the 40s. Winds are
light and westerly...and do expect the passage of a pre-frontal
trough by 12z this morning to allow for a shift in the winds to
a more northwesterly regime.

Going into the rest of today...the midday timeframe will mark the
return of another round of cooler air into the area. A stronger
front currently lies across the northern Plains/Rockies...which the
latest model runs swing thru the CWA by 18z today. The CWA will see
an increase in high clouds over the area as well...but the big wx
factor for the area will be strong northerly winds that will persist
thru the afternoon hrs after fropa occurs. Tight gradient behind the
front sets up bringing the area 20-30mph w/ gusts reaching up to 40-
45mph in some locales.

Further drying over the area from current conditions will result as
well. RH readings will mainly drop into the 20s percent range...with
some locales over the ENE into the 16-20 percent range. This will
put near critical Fire Wx conditions in place.

Conditions will slacken some towards this evening. Cooler conditions
will into Tuesday before H5/H7 ridging amplifies going into
Wednesday where above normal conditions will ensue as mid level
ridge axis crests over the region.

Looking for daytime highs today and Tuesday to range in the upper
50s to the mid 60s...coolest on Tuesday. For Wednesday...mid 70s.
Overnight lows mainly in the 30s...but low to mid 40s for Wednesday
as warmer air remains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Northwest flow aloft will prevail trailing a cold front that will
push across the region on Thursday. Strong surface CAA will bring
temperatures down sharply after sunset. Global guidance continues to
indicate a less favorable setup for moisture and precipitation;
however, there remains a slight chance of showers Thursday night
that will change over to a rain/snow mix and eventually briefly to
all snow before tapering off around midnight. The best chances for
any precipitation will be limited to western portions of Kit Carson
county and much of Cheyenne county in northeastern Colorado. A hard
freeze is expected across the entire CWA on Thursday night.

Continued CAA will prevail as we head into Friday with daytime high
temperatures only climbing into the middle to upper 40s. Hard freeze
criteria will once more be met on Friday night as widespread lower
to middle 20s are expected.

A warmup is expected for the weekend as near average temperatures
will prevail on both Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances are
nil both days in the post-frontal environment with continued
northwest flow aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR conditions for both taf sites with FEW-SCT250. Winds will be
the main factor thru the forecast period. Direction will meander
from the NNW...but speeds will range from 15-30kts. LLWS ranging
from 330-360 @ 35-50kts.


Issued at 336 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today from
around noon MDT through 3 PM MDT for areas around the Kansas/
Nebraska border as well as Graham and Norton counties in KS. In
these areas winds may gust near 25 to 35 mph with relative
humidities around or slightly higher than 15 percent.




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