Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 040752
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER MOVING THRU THE REGION AS SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS REGION. THIS MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH IS BRINGING
IN A SLOW TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION. TEMPS IN THE
60S FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST...WHILE EASTERN ZONES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 70S AND EVEN SOME LOW 80S. THE MOVEMENT OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL GIVE EASTERN AREAS A BIT
MORE OF A BREAK BEFORE SUNRISE.

GOING INTO THE REST OF TODAY ON THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...H5 RIDGE
TO OUR EAST AND A BUILDING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE UP AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...AIDED BY SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...TO BRING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE FOCUS WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES BASED ON
MODEL TRACK. EACH SUBSEQUENT TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT
SYNOPTIC SETUP...THAT IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT GIVING THE AREA
A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS. IF THESE TROUGHS DO NOT MOVE FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE SUNRISE...THESE AREAS IN THE EAST COULD ALREADY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN ZONES...AND WILL AFFECT DAYTIME HIGHS.
THIS IS WHY PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT ALL EASTERN HALF WARMER FOR HIGHS THAN
WESTERN COUNTERPARTS.

BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...SURFACE FRONT FINALLY CUTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
12Z MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES AS FRONT BEGINS TO STALL LATE IN PERIOD OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

850 MB TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 3-DAY PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM +28C TO +31C
AT MAX HEATING. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE A RANGE OF HIGHS OF LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
THE EASTERN HALF...WITH EVEN A FEW SPOT 100F READINGS OVER FAR
EASTERN LOCALES ON SATURDAY. THESE LOCALES THAT COME CLOSE TO 100F
WILL BE NEAR HEAT INDICES THAT MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY...SO WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS TREND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS IS TO BE IN THE 60S TO EVEN A SPOT 70F IN THE EAST...BUT OVER
TREND WILL BE COOLEST WEST...TO WARMEST IN THE EAST OVER FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AREAS INTO MAINLY THE 50S WITH SOME SPOTS LOW 60S IN SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE SURFACE FEATURE. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE BETTER COMPARED TO TODAY...NEAR 40KTS...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AND WITH WEAK FORCING THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIND/HAIL.

A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE ASSOCIATED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. NONETHELESS...Q-VECTORS NOT UNFAVORABLE AND
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES BUT
INSTABILITY INCREASES...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA FROM KMCK TO KHLC...WHICH IS WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT
SOUTH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE
FRONT.

NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
EMERGE ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE COOLER AND
STABLE...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY BY THURSDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. STORMS HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETELY EXITED THE AREA AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY FURTHER STORMS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING THE WIND DIRECTION
CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SITES...TURN BACK
TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTH TOMORROW. COULD SEE SOME MORE
STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTHWEST/WEST OF THE
TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT THE STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF KMCK SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL


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