Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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831
FXUS63 KGLD 100308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
808 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS IN A SHORT TIMEFRAME(GLD NOW 41F)...AND IF IT
CONTINUES...U20S WON`T HOLD. SO HAVE INCREASED THE WESTERN CWA BY
A FEW DEGREES. OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL SEE IF EASTERN SECTIONS
SEE SAME AFFECT AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. MODELS...EVEN SMALLER
SCALE OUTPUT...IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TEMPERATURE...MOISTURE
AND WIND FIELDS DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF THE LINGERING SNOWFIELD.
FIRST FOR TONIGHT...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO COOL DESPITE THE
SNOWFIELD. PER TRENDS...BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...AND CLUSTERING
OF DEPICTED TEMPERATURES...DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES.

TODAY HAVE NEAR A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN MAXES. MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN
DEPICTED TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON IF A MODEL DOES OR DOES NOT
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW ON THE GROUND. BASED ON THE BETTER
INITIALIZED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND THE RECENT BETTER
FORMING GUIDANCE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY UP SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN.  NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
PLAINS....WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ONTO
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.  DESPITE THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE
DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA...CAUSING THERE TO
BE NO PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR.  FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING WARMER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE THE SNOWFIELD HAS ON TEMPERATURES.  SUNDAY WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND COULD BE BREEZY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING CLOSER TO THE AREA.  WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SKC-SCT250 MIX THRU
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL MEANDER FROM W TO NW DURING THIS TIME
AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 15-20KTS AFTER 16Z-17Z
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



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