Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
TO THE EAST A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WAS SEEN IN THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS.  AT
THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.  AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED.  NORTH OF THE
TROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ALSO BREEZY...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 10 PERCENT AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECLINE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  TEMPERATURES IN THE
925-850MB LAYER ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS FALLING TO THE LOW 20S AND 30S...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...AND A CLEAR SKY...AM THINKING LOWS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AT BEST.

TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.  DURING THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DESPITE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS HAVE/WILL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THEY DO SO WINDS
WILL QUICKLY GUST WITH THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE. TUESDAY MORNING LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JTL


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