Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
214 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP analysis shows large scale
ridging continuing to dominate the pattern across the central
US. At the surface as front is stalled along the front range, with
high pressure centered over the northern Mississippi River Valley
extending south and west towards our CWA.

H5 ridge flattens as a shortwave trough (currently over the Pacific
NW) propagates eastward through the Northern Plains then through
central KS Tuesday-Tuesday night. Ridging then rebuilds over the
Central Rockies and Plains Wednesday. While temps are slight cooler
today (upper 60s/lower 70s) they are still above normal (by about
10F)...and temps will only trend upwards over the next few days.
This pattern will tend to keep very dry conditions in place through
these periods.

Return flow ahead of this upper level shortwave trough and
associated (weak) cold front is still advertised tonight and
Tuesday morning, and should bring bountiful BL moisture to our
CWA. SREF/NAM/ARW/NMM all show fog/stratus developing and there is
potential for dense fog to develop as moisture pools along the
prefrontal surface trough. Drier BL air may begin to move eastward
due to shift in flow to the southwest behind surface trough, which
could help erode the western extent of the fog/stratus or help
clearing from the west to the east. For now I kept fog mention in
place with no major changes midnight tonight through Tuesday

Regarding shower/thunderstorm chances Tuesday: The upper
level shortwave trough and H3 jet streak that move through our
region Tuesday will lead to good forcing in our east. Air mass below
600mb remains dry, and main CAPE axis will remain ahead of of
surface trough. This surface trough would also act as main focus for
initation Tuesday afternoon/evening and guidance continues to trend
eastward. Due to limited instability in our east and the very dry
low levels confidence is low in any measurable showers or
thunderstorms. Guidance still has a very small area in our
southeast, but considering trends I wouldn`t be surprised if even
this is pulled east with next run of models.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

An upper level ridge continues to be the dominating feature during
the long term period. This results in a mainly dry forecast, besides
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across the extreme
southeastern portion of the forecast area late Tuesday. Temperatures
look to remain above normal in the 70s and even the low

Tuesday night: A shortwave briefly breaks down the ridge, bringing
shower and thunderstorm chances to the High Plains Tuesday evening.
Better chances still appear to be east of the forecast area where
moisture increases, but the init still has a slight chance clipping
our southeastern CWA where there is limited instability.

Wednesday through Thursday night: After collaboration with
neighbors, winds were increased on Wednesday to account for higher
speeds behind a cold front. The ridge quickly rebuilds behind
Tuesday`s disturbance and the flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Dry
weather prevails.

Friday through Monday: Another disturbance passes across the
northern Plains on Friday, sending a cold front south and shifting
the flow to westerly. However, there is little moisture in place, so
a dry frontal passage is currently anticipated. Should see somewhat
cooler air move into the High Plains in time for the weekend as the
upper ridge redevelops, with this pattern persisting into next week.
Near zero PoPs continue during this timeframe.

Temperatures: Highs gradually increase through Thursday, with
temperatures in the low 80s across the majority of the area, before
dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday behind Friday`s
system. The upper ridge rebuilds, and temperatures in the mid/upper
70s return for Monday. Low temperatures range from the upper 30s to
low 50s during this period. Lows were decreased (particularly Friday
and Saturday nights) considering the dry air mass that will be in


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the evening.
Southerly winds will be near 14 knots with gusts 22 knots until
00z. From 06z to 09z will transition to mvfr and then to ifr by
12z. The ifr conditions will last until 14z when vfr conditions
are expected as the winds begin shifting to the west.

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected through 07z. From 07z to
09z mvfr conditions will occur. Ifr to lifr conditions at 09z will
become vlifr by 11z. Vlifr is expected from 11z to 16z. From 16z
to the end of the period conditions will transition from ifr to




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