Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261111
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS is staying very consistent with
a trough in the east and a ridge in the west during the extended
period. The CWA region is sitting in the middle of the two which
brings with it storm potential everyday. By Saturday the upper level
flow starts to decrease in amplitude over the region, with less of a
northwest flow and becoming more westerly. So, even though Saturday
still has storm potential, as of right now, it is not looking like
they will be as intense. Wednesday looks to have the precipitation
potential in the afternoon and early evening primarily in the
eastern portions of the region. The models are in fairly good
agreement on this at this time. Thursday and Friday will bring
continued storm chances due to upper level shortwaves breaking
through the ridge and moving over the area. The bulk shear is not
impressive on those days but CAPE values get up to around 1200 J/kg
over the southern portions of the region. The current model runs
actually pushed the more intense storm potential south of the CWA
compared to the earlier model runs over the last few days. The
latter part of the extended period still has discrepancies between
the models but they are definitely days to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Conditions...VFR...with scattered mid and high clouds.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...light/variable conditions give way to ENE
around 10 kts by 12z. By 16z...ESE around 10 kts. From 20z Sunday
onward...SSE around 10 kts (w/ gusts to 20 kts 20z Sunday-00z
Monday). For KMCK...light/variable conditions thru 14z Sunday...
shifting to the SSE around 10 kts by 19z Sunday.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN



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