Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1250 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Issued at 1059 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Have cancelled the remaining portion of the Blizzard Warning.
Remaining snowfall has become isolated flurries at best and
although there will still be patches of blowing snow with gusty
winds expected through much of the afternoon, visibilities have
improved greatly. Skies will continue to clear out across the
eastern sections through the afternoon with mostly clear skies
expected this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 818 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

The western portions of the Blizzard Warning has been cancelled as
skies are clearing, snow is coming to an end, and winds speeds
decrease through the remainder of the day.

UPDATE Issued at 425 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Update to forecast to extend Blizzard Warning for central
portions of the CWA thru 18z to match up with eastern locales.
Conditions across the area have not abated to warrant canceling
the warning for central zones.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...blizzard conditions
remain over the area as winter storm continues a slow trudge east.
Currently the system lies over north central Kansas...putting the
CWA on the backside of the system. Northerly winds remain high
ranging from 35 to 55 mph at times. Latest radar loop shows back
edge of heaviest precip now nearing Highway 25.

With the slow trend eastward with all elements of this
storm...have continued Blizzard Warning for all areas thru
forecasted time. However over the next couple hours if
central/western zones do not show conditions abating...will have
to extend timing to match up with eastern areas(17z-18z).

As the day progresses expect winds to taper down but
some locales will see areas of blowing snow thru 00z Tuesday.

For tonight on thru Wednesday night...high pressure over the
region but cold...especially for overnight hrs. With current snow
cover on the ground from this storm...have trimmed back temps for
the entire short term as do not think models have compensated
temps for snow over area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

For the extended period Tuesday night through next Monday dry
weather is forecast. Upper level ridging spreads over the area by
mid week ahead of an approaching trough. This trough is forecast to
move across the area Friday with some weak ridging returning over
the weekend.

Forecast challenge the next several days will be impact(s) of the
snow cover across the area on temperatures. Coolest high
temperatures through Thursday should be along and north of the
interstate where deepest snow cover exists. By late in the week
through the weekend cooler air moves over the entire area. For next
Monday warmer air moves in from the southwest.

I will mention the NAM model snow depth field for today shows up to
3 inches of snow it thinks is over the area along and north of the
interstate. We have reports of amounts up to three times that (9
inches) so its 2m temperature forecast is likely on the warm side
the next few days. Will see what the 18z run has and hope it will be
closer to what we`ve observed.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at MCK and GLD through the current TAF
period. With gusty winds to continue through the afternoon there
may still be localized areas of blowing snow, but it should not be
significant enough to affect visibilities and have not included it
as a prevailing condition. Skies will be mostly clear at GLD. MCK
may still see isolated flurries through 20Z, but isn`t enough to
warrant putting it in a prevailing condition. Mid level clouds
clear out after 22Z with scattered high clouds into the evening.




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