Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 171144
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.

NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.

SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.

BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.

WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENTLY IFR/NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH NO MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING ANYTHING
ANYWHERE CLOSE. SO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE WIND FIELD
IS LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE.

AT THIS TIME BY 18Z DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AND THOSE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT BOTH SITES WITH KGLD BEING GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER






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