Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A LOT OF THINGS TO LOOK AT TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON SAW VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION. IT LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN A STRONG FRONT
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONT AND
LIFT ALOFT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING...SOME JET HELP...AND WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY.

THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW BUT THEY ARE NOT NEGATIVE. CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...AM THINKING THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER MILD THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH 30S EXPECTED AND MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING. SO AM KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION AS A MIX. EXPECT THE
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BY
LATE MORNING.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE WINDS. RATHER STRONG GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. ON AVERAGE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THERE IS 40 TO
45 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS DO HAVE 50
KNOTS AT VARIOUS TIMES. AM CONCERNED WITH THIS FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. ONE WHEN HE LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTS...THAT COULD MIX
DOWN HIGHER WINDS THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE. AND ALSO WHEN THE
SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN THE LAPSE RATES WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGHER
WINDS TO COME TO THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SAYING NO.

AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
COOLING FOR TOMORROW AND WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT AND POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
CHARACTERIZE THIS ISSUANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH FROM
MONTANA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THE
TIME OF DISTURBANCE PASSAGE SHOULD BE AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING MUCAPE OF AROUND 100 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE BUT GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND FORCING...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 750 MB TO THE
TROPOPAUSE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE BUT FELT THIS COULD BE OVERCOME BY ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DEVELOPS. PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST BASED ON
THIS THINKING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST FROM NEAR
40 TO THE UPPER 40S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FURTHER WEST. MENTIONED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POPS AS A QUICK COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION PROCESSES MAY ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.

A WARM FRONT/LEE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
VARYING WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD LIES.
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON TIMING. OVERALL...IT SEEMS THERE
ARE THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...1. AN EARLIER FRONT ARRIVAL AS THE
12Z CANADIAN RUN AND 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS SUGGEST DUE TO A
CLIPPER SYSTEM FORCING THE FRONT DOWN...2. A LATER FRONT ARRIVAL DUE
TO A STRONGER RIDGE AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12Z
EUROPEAN AND 3. A FRONT PASSAGE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL. THERE WERE LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS COMPARED TO
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SO IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY LEANING ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. WITH COLLABORATION FROM NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO LEAVE MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD UNTOUCHED WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD MEAN A COOLING TREND
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG BUT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WEST WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/LEE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A VERY
DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. IF LESS CLOUD COVER IS REALIZED...IT
IS LIKELY THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE REACHED...LEADING TO
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THUS
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AS WELL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DENSE
CIRRUS IS MORE LIKELY...PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM DEVELOPING. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER LATER FORECAST RUNS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-013-027.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH


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