Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 270157 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
857 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE [TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR MAPS THIS EVENING SHOW THE AXIS OF A
SHARPLY DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING THE LOCAL AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE BETTER
DEVELOPED AS THESE MOVED INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES (~7C/KM). BUT SINCE THEN...AS
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED BEYOND THE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THAT ARE
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE INTERIOR. CONSIDERING WHAT IS LEFT ON
RADAR AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO MOVE FROM
NUMEROUS WORDING TO SCATTERED IN LATE EVENING SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING OBSERVED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF A
STORM UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH AND
SHUNTS BETTER DYNAMICS EAST. /10

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID
50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
MULTIPLE CIG BASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL ZONES THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOVE EAST...NORTH OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST AROUND 27.05Z MOB/BFM AND 27.07Z PNS. POTENTIAL EXISTS OF
IFR CIG BASES AND MVFR VSBY IN PASSING -SHRA...TRANSITIONING TO
DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  40  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  50  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  50  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  50  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  50  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  50  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  50  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



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