Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 282337
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
IT MUST BE SPRING...WE HAVE FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MRNG THEN A
CHC OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SVR WX BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS BRINGING MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE WAS SOME VERY
ISOLATED/LIGHT PCPN OVER NRN AR/MS AND WRN TN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REPORTING FLURRIES EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S
AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...THE CHC OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS IFFY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SKIES
TO BECOME CLR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SUNDAY MRNG...THUS WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING GOING.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...A CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MRNG WITH A CHC OF SHRA. ATTM IT LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR ANY
THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PCPN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE
CDFNT MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AGAIN THANKS
TO A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE WX BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SHAKY...SINCE
NAM KEEPS THE MRNG/AFTN DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS ARE MORE BULLISH IN
BRINGING IN THE CHC OF PCPN. FOR NOW WILL TRY TO BLEND THE MODELS
AND GO WITH A LOW POP BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHT.
INSTABILITIES STILL DONT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THUNDER.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE BLENDED MODELS KEEP POPS IN THRU THE
PERIOD DUE TO A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES/SFC LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. BY FRIDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE A STRONG CDFNT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THIS COULD ALSO BE A FAIRLY
GOOD CHC OF SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND
DEWPOINTS ARND 60.

SATURDAY...MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY AND A LITTLE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS 60S AND MRNG 45 TO 50.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS KEEPING
THE 10KFT DECK OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10KTS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN
4-5KFT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH RAIN
RETURNING TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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