Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 281934
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
234 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016
Much drier air aloft is in place behind the boundary currently
stretching from near Crossville to Hanceville. South of this boundary
in central and southern Alabama scattered to more numerous showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Even drier air is further north behind a
cold front extending through southern Missouri and Kentucky, where
dewpoints drop into the lower 60s to mid 50s. This front is moving
very quickly southward and will be moving into northern Alabama after
midnight tonight, based on water vapor trends. Due to the very limited
amount of moisture seen in upstream soundings ahead and behind the
front(despite some increasing upper level forcing with the front),
left out any chance of precipitation as the front moves through the
area overnight tonight. This will bring even drier air into the region
tomorrow afternoon, as a fairly strong surface high builds into the
area. Afternoon mixing should allow dewpoints to drop into the upper
50s to lower 60s. Cold air advection via northwesterly flow aloft
and cooler morning temperatures in the lower to mid 60s will give
us a noticeable break from recent heat towards the middle of the week.
Highs between 85 and 90 look reasonable with mostly sunny skies
both Wednesday and Thursday.
Advection of boundary level moisture (along with cloud cover) will
increase Friday into Friday night, as a frontal boundary approaches
the Tennessee Valley. Models are in fairly good agreement that lift
and moisture profiles will keep precipitation at bay through Friday
night. Saturday into Sunday the models are in fairly good agreement
that the front is just to the north of Southern Middle Tennessee.
Thus kept isolated to scattered chance of showers/storms and
continue this trend through Sunday.
Models differ fairly substantially Monday and Tuesday as to how far
south the better forcing, moisture, and instability make it. However,
kept in higher precipitation chances, as better dynamics and a much more
saturated environment could produce more widespread activity. This
may need to be increased in subsequent shifts, but models typically
have trouble moving fronts south into a strong surface high.
(Issued 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail at KMSL and KHSV through
the TAF period. Lingering cloud cover associated with an old
boundary will slowly drift south as a cold front approaches from the
north. Kept the stratus deck around 09Z as VFR at this time, however
after 13Z VFR conditions are expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville 66 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 0
Shoals 66 90 63 88 / 10 10 10 0
Vinemont 66 88 64 88 / 10 10 10 0
Fayetteville 63 88 60 87 / 10 10 10 0
Albertville 64 89 63 87 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Payne 65 87 62 88 / 10 10 10 10
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