Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 061202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
06/14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-5 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NC MISSISSIPPI MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MSL AREA BY MID-AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
BEGINNING AT 19Z. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HSV
AND NO MENTION OF TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN AC CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 07/06Z...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY -- ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-12Z. THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING MSL...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF...SOME LGT BR/FG WILL ALSO BE PSBL
BEGINNING AFTER 01Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK FROM WSW TO SSW THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.