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000
FXUS64 KHUN 191140 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
640 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
FAR MORE QUIET WX PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS
EARLY WED MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH
HELPED BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD TUE AFTERNOON HAS
NOW PRETTY MUCH STALLED JUST S/E OF THE AREA FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO
CNTRL AL/MS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH
CLEARER SKIES W OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE MID/SRN PLAINS SHOULD AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR WWD WHICH MAY HELP WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING LATER
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OTHER SFC BOUNDARY OF NOTE OVER
THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST REGIONS PUSHING SWD INTO MID TN LATER TODAY
AND WEAKENING. SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER INTO THU
COUPLED WITH ANY LINGERING UPPER FORCING MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS MECH
FOR ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.

THE FORECAST OTHERWISE PRETTY MUCH READS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT
LEAST INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. SFC RIDGE IS XPCTED TO BECOME FAIRLY
STAGNANT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN INTO FRI. UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W IS ALSO XPCTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS BUILD
INTO THE MIDWEST REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A
GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW PATTERN AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE PROB OF ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT TEMPS EACH
DAY...WITH BOTH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER A BIT MORE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD
STARTING SUN...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR
VISIBILITY AT HSV AND MSL FROM 10Z-12Z.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.