Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 311110
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE S.E U.S. CONTINUES
TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE. THIS...AS WELL AS ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE OFF THE S.E.
CAROLINA COAST...WILL HELP KEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WAVES/WEAK LOWS IN
THE UPPER PATTERN ARE THE FOCUS FOR ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DRYING THROUGH THE PAST
FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO
WARRANT IT. TEMPS TODAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER THANKS TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH. TEMPS WILL RISE TUE/WED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT...INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT FOR TUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN A SHOWER OR TWO COULD POP UP
BUT THINKING THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME PRESENT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
HANDLING OFF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED
RIDING OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW AN UPPER CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE GULF IMPACTS THE LOCAL AREA. 00Z/31 ECMWF HAS COME
IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND DRIER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH WPC`S GUIDANCE ON GOING WITH A NON ECMWF SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. ECMWF IS CUTTING OFF THE LOW OVER MS/AL AND GIVING THE
AREA MUCH MORE UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER THU-SUN. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THU/FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES
BUT CHANCES ARE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE WET AS THERE IS EVIDENCE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE WEEKEND AND COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO KHSV AND MAY
MOVE ACROSS KMSL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU 18Z...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV. AFTER 18Z VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
VERY LOW. THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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