Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 240816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
316 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Current (08Z) obs range from the low to upper 60s under clear skies
across the TN Valley. These are 5-10 degrees cooler than 24 hrs ago
thanks to the cold front passage yesterday and radiational cooling.
Pleasant conditions will continue into today as sfc high pressure
builds from the northern MS Valley down into the region, filtering in
additional cooler and drier. Daytime highs will reach the low/mid
80s and you will be able to feel a difference with those lower
dewpoints in place!

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Mostly clear skies will help temps fall into the lower 60s and even
the upper 50s in southern middle TN tonight. By Friday the sfc high
pressure will shift into the Great Lakes and provide a near rinse and
repeat of Thursday. Winds will become northeasterly and temps just a
tad warmer. On Saturday as the system slowly progresses eastward
into New England, weak wedging sets up and a back door cold front
could bring a few showers/storms into the TN Valley. Will have to see
if there is enough moisture recovery in time for any development.
Otherwise, temps will be in the mid/upper 80s with overnight lows in
the mid 60s to start out the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Sunday starts off with a somewhat messy synoptic pattern, one that
looks quite different than this time last night. One upper trough
will be moving through the northeast states while another digs into
the upper Midwest. Tropical Storm Harvey will be meandering around
Houston/SE Texas for the start of Sunday as well. Over the local
area, we`ll have generally northwest flow aloft with high pressure
at the lower and mid levels with winds turning southerly at the
surface. This will start to usher in more moisture and bring dew
points back into the mid to upper 60s. Could see some isolated
convection with this increased moisture especially along higher
terrain so kept the slight chance pops from the blended guidance.

On Monday, the upper low over the upper midwest cuts off and digs
south, which will drag a weak boundary and upper wave towards the
region. This looks to also interact with some energy ejecting out of
Harvey as well. This boundary may linger for a few days which
supports the chance pops in the forecast through at least Wednesday.
By that time, the remnants of Harvey will be making their way
towards the TN valley and likely giving us a good dose of rain
Wednesday into Friday with the center passing right over NW Alabama.
Granted, this is still quite a ways out but guidance is in way
better agreement than last night and therefore, we do have higher
confidence in the rainy week ahead. Went ahead and left the likely
pops toward the end of the week but that will probably get shifted
as the event gets closer. We`re not there yet but we will probably
have some gusty winds as the remnants pass across the area as well.

In terms of temperatures, Sunday will be the last day in the mid to
upper 80s with clouds/rain keeping highs in the lower 80s for the
rest of the long term. Lows will remain near normal, in the mid to
upper 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR weather should prevail across the TAF sites for the next 24
hours, as high pressure builds southward from central Canada. Light
northerly winds tonight, will become NE 5-10kt shortly after daybreak
on Thursday. Winds should become light from the ENE after dusk Thu
evening. Isolated to at times scattered daytime fair weather cumulus
are possible during the warmest part of the day, otherwise mostly
clear skies are expected.





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