Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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479
FXUS64 KJAN 041446 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
946 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
OVERALL MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK THE HWO/GRAPHICS DUE LIMIT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WIND FOR TODAY. LOOKS AS THOUGH THAT THE
HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE DELTA AND
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS MOST EFFICIENT MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THIS
REGION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
30MPH POSSIBLE. UPDATED GRAPHICS/HWO ARE OUT.

THE REGION IS SITUATED UNDER NRLY FLOW ALOFT AND UNDER SFC RIDGING.
DRIER AIR IS SITUATED IN THE REGION WITH ONLY AROUND HALF AN INCH
PWATS. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE MID MS VALLEY WILL DIVE DOWN
TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN AS PWATS ONLY INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AN INCH. EXPECT
THESE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE N AND E.
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AS IT WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 21Z-03Z BEFORE
EVEN DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT. ADJUSTED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY CURVES. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS
GOOD. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST...COULD CLIP NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE...A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT NAMELY KGTR.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY 01Z THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY.  MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 9-13 KNOTS...GUSTING UP
TO AROUND 17 KNOTS AT TIMES.  WINDS WILL BE A TAD MORE GUSTY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...I.E. KGLH...KGWO...AND KGTR. HERE...LOOK
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 26
KNOTS POSSIBLE.  THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 KNOTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE GENERALLY
QUIET ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI A LITTLE LATER. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FOR THE PAST DAY OR TWO...DEVELOPING CONVECTION FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST AND LEFT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST RUN SUGGESTS
IT MAY BE COMPLETELY AFTER 00Z WHEN ANYTHING DEVELOPS...BUT
MAINTAINING THE LATE AFTERNOON STILL SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WAS ALREADY FLOWING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE RECORDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
REMAIN INTACT. GRADIENT WINDS WERE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING WITH THE BEST VALUES ACROSS THE DELTA. ADDED A LIMITED RISK
AREA TO THE HWO AND A GRAPHIC FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE POPS AND
TEMPS WERE GOOD. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A FEW DAYS TO DRY
OUT WILL BE NICE.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WE WILL START WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS WITH TWO MID-UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EAST AND WEST CONUS.
AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
OPENS UP AND BECOMES PHASED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
REGION  FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET SOME
RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL COME BACK FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING INTO
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR
SAT-MON. DAILY HIGHS WILL START IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY
BEFORE RISING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON SAT-MON...THEN LOWERING
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
DAILY LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY...THEN
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
RISE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RETURN
FLOW. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  50  73  48 /   3   7   7   1
MERIDIAN      76  48  73  45 /   6  13   8   3
VICKSBURG     78  50  74  48 /   3   2   3   0
HATTIESBURG   77  53  76  47 /   5   4   2   0
NATCHEZ       77  52  72  45 /   2   2   2   0
GREENVILLE    77  50  73  49 /   4   3   3   1
GREENWOOD     76  48  72  47 /  10   7   5   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/17/19



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