Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 302122
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...HEAT CONTINUES TODAY BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS
IN NE LA STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY.
AREAS IN THE S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT
REALLY MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE
ABLE TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS ENDING BY 23Z WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN SPOTS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL EARLY IN THE MORNING. /17/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE VALUES THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30% RANGE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/26/17


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