Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 281517 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1017 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...BROAD RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN AND LEAVE US BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LOCATION FOR THESE STORMS TO
EITHER DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE
BEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THERE PER 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS. KJAN
SHOWED A 1.36 INCH PW VALUE CONTRASTED WITH 2.14 INCHES ON KLIX.
MORNING MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES
AND DCAPE SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S. DRIER
AIR/MIXING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL DECENT THERE. GOING FORECAST
IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
HBG/PIB AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD BE AT OR GREATER THAN 5 KFT. SOME FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY BRING FLIGHT CATS INTO THE MVFR RANGE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. CHANCES FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM
THE SOUTH BY EARLY SATURDAY. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AGAIN TODAY. TEMPS WERE
GOOD...STUCK WITH GUIDANCE.

CONVECTION WAS STILL DEVELOPING OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPLEX GOING NEAR BROWNSVILLE. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS INLAND WITH
HEATING...A THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84 IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS EXTEND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MODELS SHOW THINGS ENDING BY 00Z...OPTED TO
EXTEND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LINGER.
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PW VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING A MAX RIGHT
AROUND 00Z ALONG WITH INSTABILITY.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND PUSHES MORE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHOULD APPROACH THE ARKLAMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE POPS WERE GOOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE SOUTH IS MORE LIKELY.



LONG TERM...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INTO THE
WEEKEND...OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS AND A S/WV TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP
DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
SAT-SUN...HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE COMMON RANGE.
AS FOR LOWS...EACH MORNING WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM WITH LOWS 72-75.

FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO TAPER
PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A 20-30% VARIETY WITH TIMING MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL WARM AND MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE
LOWER/MID 90S. /CME/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  70  95  74 /   6   7  10  36
MERIDIAN      95  66  95  73 /   3   6  10  34
VICKSBURG     95  68  94  72 /   6   9  11  37
HATTIESBURG   95  72  94  75 /  18  18  46  44
NATCHEZ       93  71  94  74 /  15  15  39  39
GREENVILLE    95  69  95  72 /   2   5   6  36
GREENWOOD     96  67  95  72 /   1   4   4  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/BB/007/CME





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