Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 010224 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
924 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Afternoon and evening convection is slowly winding down now. Due to
some uncertainty in the models, will keep slight chances of
showers/storms for the northern zones throughout the night. There is
a slight chance Wednesday morning could be a rerun of this morning,
with convection triggering along the shortwave and pushing into our
CWA. Only tweaked the pops and wx grids for this update. Everything
else looks good in the forecast. /10/


VCTS will be coming to an end by 01/03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the period. VCTS will develop once again after
01/18Z and linger through the end of the period. /26/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Morning convection
eventually moved out of the area and/or diminished in intensity
which resulted in a brief lull in convective activity early this
afternoon. However, additional showers and thunderstorms have begun
to develop over the last hour or so and coverage has increased across
the ArkLaMiss region. Most of the convection has developed across
eastern Mississippi thanks to a weak convergence boundary leftover
from yesterday that has migrated east. A smattering of showers has
been developing further west but the coverage is much higher across
the east. Cloud cover this afternoon has kept temperatures on the
lower side today than yesterday. As of 2pm, temperatures have reached
the mid to upper 80s with locations in the east topping out in the
lower 90s. This is some 3 to 6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

Afternoon convection will once again diminish with the loss of
daytime heating later this evening. It will be another mild night
with overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s/near 70.

Moisture will be on the increase starting tomorrow through the end
of the week. Dewpoints will rise into the lower 70s and PW values
will increase from about 1.65 inches tomorrow to about 1.9 inches by
the end of the week. Isolated to scattered storms will again be
possible tomorrow mainly during the heat of the day. Some hi-res
models indicate some showers ongoing earlier in the morning but
expect the majority of the convection to take place during the peak
heating. /28/

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A cooler and wetter pattern
is still expected for the long term period. A stalled cold front will
be just northwest of our CWA Thursday while a weak southern stream
closed low moves over the Southern Plains. Downstream of this low a
rather moist air mass with above normal pwats around an inch and
three quarters will reside over our region. The close proximity of
the closed low and the stalled cold front will lead to greater rain
chances Thursday with the greatest rain chances over our northwest
zones. The increased rain chances and associated cloud cover will
limit insolation and result in cooler afternoon highs. The ECMWF and
GFS agree that this closed low will linger over the eastern half of
Texas through Saturday before weakening into an open trough Sunday.
This will maintain cloud cover and rain chances over our CWA through
the weekend. The weakening southern stream trough Sunday will be
replaced over our CWA by a deepening northern stream upper upper
level trough that will encompass the eastern CONUS. This northern
stream trough will send a cold front into our CWA Sunday. The GFS
pushes this cold front to the Gulf coast by Monday morning with
cooler and drier air over our CWA ending rain chances. The ECMWF
stalls the cold front Monday along the southern fringe of my CWA.
Cooler than normal afternoon highs are expected Friday through
Monday but morning lows will continue at or above normal through the
period. /22/


Jackson       70  90  69  90 /  24  24  20  27
Meridian      67  90  68  92 /  27  23  16  13
Vicksburg     69  90  69  90 /  14  24  22  38
Hattiesburg   68  92  68  92 /  18  20  10  14
Natchez       68  90  71  87 /  12  20  17  40
Greenville    69  90  70  88 /  25  34  34  49
Greenwood     67  90  69  88 /  27  37  29  37


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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