Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 150910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASED MOISTURE
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A FESTERING BOUNDARY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT`LL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.  WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2.00 INCHES...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT MOST WILL
DISSIPATED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE AROUND
90.  LOWS TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

A DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY.  THIS COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH BE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90.  WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
60S. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...OVERALL A TRANSITIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO EXIST FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR
MID WEEK...THE PATTERN CAN BEST BE DESCRIBED AS NW FLOW BEFORE IT
TRANSITIONS TO SOME S/WV RIDGING THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED NW FLOW REGIME TO START NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE TRANSITIONING
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY BENIGN WHICH IS RATHER TYPICAL OF SEP. THE INITIAL NW FLOW
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SFC FRONT TO NEAR THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AROUND THU. AS S/WV RIDGING
DEVELOPS FOR FRI-SUN...PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL WANE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS THANKS TO MORE DEEPLY ROOTED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE EURO/GFS DIFFER IN TIMING. THE EURO AMPLIFIES THE
PATTERN LATE SUN INTO MON AND PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR MON
INTO TUE. THE GFS DOES DO SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT IT 2-3 DAYS SLOWER.

AS FOR TEMPS...(GENERALLY SPEAKING) CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE AVG FOR
MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WED-MON TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...PARTS OF
THE NE AND E-CENTRAL COULD SEE SOME COOLER LOWS FRI MORNING AS THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MORE INTO THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY...IF MORE CLOUDS
EXIST ON THU ALONG WITH A BIT MORE PRECIP...THEN HIGHS WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK SOME AS WELL. OVERALL...A BLEND OF THE EURO/GFS MOS WAS USED
FOR MAX TEMPS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING.  WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
PREVAILING...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO
MVFR STATUS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY...BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR STATUS IF CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE`S RESPECTED AERODROME.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.  VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT OF PATCHY FOG CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  68  88  66 /  15  11  15   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  88  65 /  22  19  16   7
VICKSBURG     90  66  89  64 /   8   8  15   6
HATTIESBURG   92  72  90  68 /  33  22  48  14
NATCHEZ       90  68  88  66 /  15  10  30  11
GREENVILLE    88  65  88  66 /  11   7  17   5
GREENWOOD     88  64  88  64 /   9   7  13   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/CME





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