Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 281604 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...A RATHER QUIET MORNING WEATHERWISE TODAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE MS/AL STATE LINE...WITH MOST OF
THE STORMS REMAINING IN AL. SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
TODAY BUT COVERAGE OVERALL SHOULD BE FAR LESS THAN WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY. AN MCS TRACKING THROUGH OK/AR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST BUT
MODELS...INCLUDING HI-RES MODELS...SHOW THIS WEAKENING AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE THINGS WELL
FOR TODAY. DID REDUCE POPS JUST A LITTLE IN THE EAST BUT MAINTAIN AT
LEAST CHANCE THERE. MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
/28/


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS ARE BEING REPORTED AT MANY SITES WHILE
KGLH/KHBG HAVE SOME LIFR LOW CIGS. KGLH SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 17-18Z WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE AREA BY 15-16Z. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL OVER MAINLY E MS THIS
AFTN AND EVNG. WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE OUT OF THE SE AROUND 5-7 KTS.
/22/DC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 8 AM BEFORE DISSIPATING. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE LINE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING AND MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL START TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
AND THE GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED THERE. PARAMETERS LOOK LESS
FAVORABLE TODAY FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL END BY EARLY EVENING BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE OF
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AGAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT DIURNAL TREND TO THE
CONVECTION FRIDAY BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. /22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL LOOKS TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST ANY SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL MATERIALIZE. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE (ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT WEAK) UPPER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN SLOWLY TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS DELTA SATURDAY...BUT BEYOND THAT
POINT MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOULD CALM AND LESSEN CONCENTRATED
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...THERE STILL WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH H850 SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SUPPORT LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
ISSUES IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS POINT WE
WILL NOT ADDRESS IN THE HWO.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD OOZE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE LARGELY WASHING OUT.
CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT AND MUGGY SATURDAY IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED TO OUR EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY.

AT LEAST WEAK TROFFING ALOFT COULD HANG IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD DRIVE ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY TREND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE AFTER DIPPING A
LITTLE BELOW THAT MARK AT THE START OF THE WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  88  68 /  25  16  31  28
MERIDIAN      84  67  87  66 /  43  16  31  26
VICKSBURG     87  69  88  69 /  16  16  37  32
HATTIESBURG   87  68  89  67 /  43  16  27  22
NATCHEZ       87  70  87  68 /  16  16  33  27
GREENVILLE    87  70  88  70 /  15  16  42  52
GREENWOOD     84  69  87  69 /  23  16  35  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/DC/22/17


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