National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 132051
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AN ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH 700 PM. RH VALUES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RECOVER BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON SURFACE HEATING/
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA/NW ARKANSAS
BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES DURING THIS TIME...KEPT PRECIP ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  72  46  67 /   0   0  20  80
FSM   40  70  50  67 /   0   0  10  80
MLC   45  71  51  66 /   0   0  20  80
BVO   38  69  38  67 /   0   0  10  60
FYV   39  67  42  64 /   0   0  10  80
BYV   41  68  43  65 /   0   0  10  70
MKO   42  71  47  67 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   43  67  42  66 /   0   0  10  60
F10   44  71  49  68 /   0   0  20  80
HHW   41  70  52  69 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office