Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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823 FXUS64 KTSA 110810 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 310 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 High pressure persists today with the upper level ridge axis shifting overhead this afternoon & evening. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast for much of the area to start the day... though mid and high level cloud debris from TX convection will likely be increasing by afternoon & evening, especially across SE OK. Guidance suggests a weak front will push into the AR zones later this afternoon. While this will likely be of no significance... some short range guidance hints at just enough forcing along the boundary to squeeze out a shower or two in the terrain. Kept PoPs below mentionable values, however, due to low confidence and expected sparse coverage/ negligible QPF. Could also see some light showers scrape the Red River late in the afternoon, but again, kept PoPs below mentionable for now. Otherwise, a pleasant day is in store with seasonably warm temperatures (generally near 80 degrees for the region) alongside calm winds. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A cutoff low currently over the desert southwest will gradually drift eastward tonight providing increasingly SW flow over the CWA. Moisture transport will be increasing during this time and rain/ thunder chances really begin to ramp up by Sunday afternoon under isentropic ascent regime. Precip chances persist into Monday as a sfc low translates east-northeast across the CWA, dragging a cold front with it. The front is expected to be the focus for storm development Monday afternoon & evening, with the highest PoPs currently placed over NE OK & NW AR. While storms should remain sub severe Sunday & Sun night, it is not out of question to see a marginal severe threat on Monday across SE OK & W-Central AR where instability will be the greatest. Potentially of greater concern, however, is the threat for heavy rainfall with PWATs landing in the 1 to 1.5" range Sunday & Monday (near 90th percentile). The WPC has painted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the entire CWA for this period. Most precip should end Monday night/ Tuesday morning as the low departs, though guidance suggests at least light precip could persist into Tuesday afternoon for AR zones. Transitory ridging will keep the forecast dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Negative height anomalies return to the region for the second half of the week with several passing disturbances promoting elevated rain & thunder potential Wednesday through Friday. To be expected for this time of year... at least a limited threat for severe weather will accompany this activity. PWATs remain high during this period as well, with locally heavy rainfall remaining a concern... especially given the recent rainfall across the FA. Temperatures generally remain near seasonal averages through the period... highs in the upper 70s/ lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s/ lower 60s. Winds will tend to become occasionally breezy as each weather system impacts the region, though still remaining in the 20-30 mph range at most. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with mainly high clouds expected. Winds will remain under 10 kts, with the AR terminals having a prevailing westerly wind primarily from late morning into early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 59 76 61 / 0 10 30 90 FSM 83 60 79 62 / 0 10 20 80 MLC 83 59 75 62 / 10 10 40 80 BVO 82 55 77 58 / 0 10 30 90 FYV 80 54 76 58 / 10 10 20 90 BYV 78 55 77 59 / 10 0 20 80 MKO 81 59 77 61 / 0 10 30 90 MIO 80 56 77 59 / 0 10 30 90 F10 81 59 76 61 / 0 10 40 90 HHW 80 60 75 62 / 10 10 50 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...22