Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 250222
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
922 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated shra/tsra continue across far east central OK and west
central AR this evening...otherwise much of activity that developed
this afternoon has dissipated. Convection allowing models continue to
indicate potential for thunderstorms to develop along surface
boundary across srn KS overnight and track toward northeastern OK.
Ongoing foreacast reflects this potential. Unseasonably warm
conditions persist overnight most places with near persistence likely
a good call. Updated forecast products already issued.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing isolated convection expected to wane after sunset with
focus on expanding convection late tonight near the OK / KS
border. Expectations are that the associated boundary with this
area of storms will push southward and remain a focus for renewed
convection during much of the day on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Yet another hot and humid one this afternoon...with current heat
index values running around 105-110F across much of eastern OK and
west central AR. Isolated convection has developed again in the
southeastern portions of the forecast area...which will persist
into the early evening. Additional convection is expected to
develop later this afternoon across a weak frontal boundary draped
across south-central KS. HRRRX suggests that some of this activity
could eventually drift into parts of northeast OK later
tonight...and this is where highest PoPs will be situated mainly
after 06z.

The boundary looks to stall near the KS/OK border into
Monday...with widely scattered showers/storms possible areawide
in the unstable and weakly capped atmosphere. Light easterly
surface flow...along with increased cloud cover and areas of
precipitation should hold temperatures down a few degrees...so
have held off on extending any heat headlines.

Extended models continue to show a retrogression of the upper
ridge into the southwestern states...with strengthening
northwesterly flow developing...especially later in the week. This
pattern will be favorable for more seasonal temperatures and daily
shower/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...07


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