504
FXUS64 KTSA 151720
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Low-end (20-30%), spotty showers/storms possible this afternoon
across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring low-
medium chances (20-40%) for storms for parts of northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas late Wednesday night and Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist through the weekend and into next week except for a
low chance (20%) of showers and storms in southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Saturday associated with a possible tropical
disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A few showers and storms will remain possible this afternoon into
early this evening across mainly southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas, but severe weather and flooding concerns are not expected.
A quiet night is expected otherwise, with overnight lows in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Isolated showers and storms will again be possible Wednesday
afternoon across mainly northwest Arkansas, but most places will
remain dry. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s, with
afternoon heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105
degrees.

A weak frontal boundary will sag south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas
border late Wednesday night and Thursday bringing an increased
chance for showers and storms to parts of northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. This boundary will wash out by Friday, and an
upper ridge will then begin to build over the area by this weekend
and beyond. This will result in hot and humid conditions, with heat
index values likely reaching advisory levels in some places this
weekend into next week. Rain chances will be limited, but some low
pops will be mentioned Saturday from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas as a potential tropical disturbance passes east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Primarily VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with
scattered mid level cumulus and high clouds forecast for all
sites. More scattered showers and storms will be possible this
afternoon and evening, with best chances across SE OK into WC AR,
so have introduced prob30 groups for KMLC and KFSM from 21-03Z.
Otherwise, chances will be below mentionable for other sites.
Southwesterly winds will be around 10 knots this afternoon, with
an increase in speed and gust potential toward the end of this
issuance later tomorrow morning.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  94  75  93 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   75  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   75  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   73  94  74  92 /  10  10  30  40
FYV   71  91  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
BYV   72  92  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  20
MIO   74  93  74  91 /  10  10  20  40
F10   74  92  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   73  92  73  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04