Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 071538
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1038 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN UNDERWAY IN A BAND FROM MCINTOSH COUNTY TO
TO BENTON WASHINGTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES NW ARKANSAS.
MORE THAN INCH/HOUR RAIN IN THAT BAND.  PWA VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2.0 MAKE ULTRA EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITHOUT
THUNDER.  WAVE NOW  NORTH TEXAS RUNNING ALONG BOUNDARY
EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS WILL BRING
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON /
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY TODAY...AS A FRONT
SETTLED INTO THE REGION LAST NIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE UNDERWAY...AND MORE IS LIKELY LATER TODAY...BUT
THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL BE FOCUSED TONIGHT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS THE BIGGEST FORECAST
ISSUE AT HAND...WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. RATHER MODEST PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT AT A CONTINUED SLOW PACE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS SLIGHT SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
LEAD TO THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ANTICIPATED OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHWARD BY A DIAGONAL ROW OF COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...ADDING THE AREA FROM MCALESTER NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH VAN
BUREN.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ATTEMPTING
TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DECAYING EVENING MCS IN THE VICINITY OF
INTERSTATE 44. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING...WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. A MORE COHESIVE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF
WEST TEXAS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. 00Z RAOBS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 100 PERCENT
OF NORMAL IN THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THESE VALUES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENT. WITH OVERALL FORCING AND
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...LEADING TO THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE
FRONT...AND AN ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN A FEW SPOTS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  68  80  69 /  80  90  80  40
FSM   87  73  84  71 /  50  70  60  30
MLC   86  73  82  71 /  70  80  80  10
BVO   74  65  78  66 /  70  90  70  40
FYV   77  69  79  69 /  80  80  80  40
BYV   81  69  80  68 /  80  90  80  40
MKO   83  71  80  70 /  90  90  80  30
MIO   74  65  77  66 /  70  90  80  40
F10   78  70  79  70 /  80  90  80  30
HHW   89  75  88  72 /  40  60  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ054>074.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....10


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