Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251100
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front has brought a wind shift to the north at all sites
except the southern sites of KMLC and KFSM. Expect the wind shift
to arrive at these sites by around 15Z. Sct to bkn mid cloud will
clear out, with sct high cloud expected for the afternoon. Winds
should remain blo 15kts. All in all, no major impacts to aviation.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Weak cold front settling into the region early this morning with a
few light echoes showing up on radar near the Kansas/Oklahoma
border. Little, if any precipitation, expected to make it to the
surface this morning given mid-level cloud deck and dry lower
levels. Cooler air will filter in behind the front, but high
temperatures will still remain above normal with afternoon highs
topping out in the 60s for much of the forecast area this
afternoon. Overall, the weekend will be quite pleasant for
November as high pressure dominates the central conus.

Elevated fire weather concerns return Monday as an incoming shortwave
trough pushes the upper ridge east. Deepening lee trough will
increase southerly flow across the Plains; however, moisture
return will be slow and with dry airmass in place...fire spread
rates will increase by afternoon. Any fire that ignites Monday
will spread rapidly and quickly get out of control leading to
dangerous fire conditions.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Models are becoming more aligned with the
midweek system and chances for precipitation. The GFS seemed a
bit out to lunch with latest run by gradually closing off the
shortwave trough over Oklahoma and an increase in precipitation
amounts for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, the
latest EC has mirrored the GFS with cutting off the system. If
models continue with this trend, it would greatly increase our
chances of seeing measurable precipitation to round out a very
dry month.

The remainder of the forecast period will return to near normal
temperatures as ridging builds back over the western conus placing
the central plains in cooler northwest flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  36  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   68  38  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  33  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  33  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  35  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  36  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  35  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
F10   66  37  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   71  41  67  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30


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