Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 030112
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
812 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...RADAR RETURNS ARE INDICATIVE OF A SMALL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFTED INDEX CALCULATED FROM
THE NEW ORLEANS SOUNDING IS IN FACT -7 AND IN THE SHORT TERM....<6
HOURS...IS FORECAST TO -8 DEGREES C. CAPE IS 2400 TO 2800 J/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.25 INCHES. WE THEREFORE SAW A NEED TO RAISE THE
CHANCES TO BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WEST
MOBILE TO CAMERON ALABAMA...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT GOING NORTHWEST
INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. INSTABILITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING...AND COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
LIMITED LATE TONIGHT. 77/21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION [03.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...SCATTERED SHRA
AND TSRA WILL MAINLY IMPACT INLAND SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OUT
AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE MID TO
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BETTER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE KMOB GENERALLY
WERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED COMBINED WITH THE BETTER LIFT
OR FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AFFECTING MOST
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PWATS UP 2 IN WITH POCKETS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT STILL BELIEVE A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT WITH THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS
WHERE POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE. FOR LATER TONIGHT STILL BELIEVE
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED MORNING. ON WED THE MAIN IMPULSE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST WELL TO
THE NORTH OF KMOB AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THOUGH PROVIDING
BETTER LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES STILL IN PLACE NEAR THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY WED MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE COOLER MET/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER MOST AREAS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS/CUBA...RETROGRADING
WEST AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING
NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...
MAINTAINING A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT
50% THU-SUN FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS LAND
AREAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WHILE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO THEIR LOWEST VALUES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD (30%) BY TUESDAY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. 34/JFB

AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03.18Z.
ALSO COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE
MS/AL COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS AT TIMES EACH DAY. HIGHER SWELL FROM
WELL OFFSHORE HAS BEGUN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SEAS
MOSTLY AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  92  74 /  30  50  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  91  76  92  76 /  20  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  88  77  90  76 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  94  71  94  72 /  30  50  20  50  20
WAYNESBORO  72  95  71  93  71 /  60  50  20  50  20
CAMDEN      71  95  71  94  71 /  40  50  20  50  20
CRESTVIEW   72  93  70  94  70 /  20  40  20  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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