Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
000
FXUS64 KMOB 191226 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED CLOUDS A TAD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS BETTER CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY LIFT
OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW STATUS DECK CONTINUING
OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE
NORTHWEST DRIER AIR IS ALSO NOTED IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS
WHICH SHOULD HELP OR ENHANCE THE BETTER DRYING TREND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MORE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
COOLER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
THEN THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEAKENS ON MONDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN SMALL POPS RETURN
TO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY THEN TREND TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY MONDAY. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN SMALL POPS
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A DRY FORECAST
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT.  A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19.15 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP AROUND
THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF ALL TERMINAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
SLOWLY LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AND AND OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EAST...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING TO 2 TO
3 FEET LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  53  76  55  79 /  10  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   70  54  74  58  76 /  10  05  00  05  05
DESTIN      64  54  72  59  74 /  10  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   72  47  76  51  79 /  10  05  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  75  49  78  52  80 /  10  05  00  05  10
CAMDEN      73  49  75  51  79 /  10  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  48  75  51  79 /  10  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.