Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 262330 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION BETWEEN 27.04-08Z
AND THEN NORTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS BY 27.15Z
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AS EXPECTED THE RAINS
AND CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVED EAST ACROSS THE REGION LAST
NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...BUT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH THE LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NORTHWEST-NORTH
WIND FLOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THANKSGIVING
DAY.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S INLAND AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S COASTAL. COOL AND BREEZY
ON THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAST MOVING REINFORCING
FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER INLAND COUNTIES
AND AROUND OR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. COLDER ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S INLAND AND RANGING
FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TO THE GA/CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ALOFT...MAIN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOLLOWED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY MON.
THIS UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY MON. WITH
THIS PATTERN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEEKEND...THUS ALLOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER SFC
TEMPS TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
TUE. THIS PATTERN NEAR THE SFC MAY LEAD TO BETTER FOG POTENTIAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A WEAK
SHORT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH MAY BE A FEW
EXTRA CLOUDS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
EXPECTED. AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST BETTER RIDGING
ALOFT BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALLOWING FOR MORE RETURN FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST LEADING TO MORE MILD/HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE LATER
PART OF THE FORECAST PD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEK
OR OVER THE WEEKEND. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT SR BLEND
MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY. AS FOR TEMPS...FOR FRI HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE EAST AND THE LOWER
60S TO THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 60S ON SAT AND THE
LOWER 70S SUN THROUGH TUE...THEN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WED DUE TO
BETTER CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PD. LOWS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND THE LOWER 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST.
LOWS TEMPS THEN RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. 32/EE

AVIATION...27/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY (UP TO 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS) OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A FAST MOVING FRONT. 12/DS

MARINE...WINDS SUBSIDED BRIEFLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...VALID FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT TIME...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLIGHT WITH
SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30 PERCENTILE
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS LEADING TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES
LATER IN THE PERIOD. GOOD DISPERSION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY FAIR DISPERSION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK A BETTER
CHANCE FOR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  58  33  59  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   44  60  36  59  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      50  60  42  58  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  56  30  56  33 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  35  56  30  60  36 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  55  30  58  34 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   36  60  31  59  31 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





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