Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 212337 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION (22.00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FA
BY SUNRISE MONDAY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT DROP INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...BUT REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DAMPEN
NORTHERN-MOST REGIONS OF THE FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO BE MORE
OF AN ANNOYANCE AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY...THE FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE FA TO THE COAST BY AROUND
18Z...THEN SLOWS A BIT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MARINE
PORTION OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF...WITH HEATING
OCCURRING BEFORE THE FRONT GETS TO THE COAST AND A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LIMITED THIS PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FA AND THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA. /16

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES PARTIALLY EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT LEAVES A WEAK UPPER LOW WHICH LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES.  MUCH DRIER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE LOWER FIFTIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT.  MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER FIFTIES INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MID SIXTIES CLOSE TO THE COAST.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES
INTO A RELATIVELY WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
WEAK UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A STRONGER
UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.  THIS BREAKS DOWN ON
SUNDAY BUT LEAVES A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WHILE A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING PERSISTING
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA
EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MORE QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.  SMALL POPS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES GRADUALLY EXPAND AND INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND SHOULD THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP...MUCH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND ONCE THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN BECOMES CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL PUSH A FRONT OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA. THIS LEAVES A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS AREA
WATERS....AND HIGH END MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A SLOW EASING
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  89  61  86  64 /  10  40  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   72  88  65  86  67 /  10  40  10  10  10
DESTIN      76  86  69  86  70 /  10  40  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   68  88  55  85  59 /  10  20  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  84  54  85  58 /  10  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  84  54  84  58 /  10  20  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   69  89  60  86  60 /  10  40  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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