Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 011142 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT MID/UPPER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL SEABREEZE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARM...IN THE LOW 90S
IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF AXIS...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE TROF BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EAST OF THE TROF AXIS...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE UNDER A DIFFLUENT
MID LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES). CONSIDERING THIS...WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE A CHANCE OF
STORMS. BUT...THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER MODEL
OUTPUT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE 01.00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY (CAPE) AT OR LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE THE NAM INDICATES
1000-1500 J/KG. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES WILL ONLY CARRY A SMALL CHANCE
OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (20%). A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
IS FORECAST WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE MORNING WIND FLOW...
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 90 TO 95. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY]...MOVING INTO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD INDICATES A TROF AXIS
SETTING UP FROM THE TENNESSEE/OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREAS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. THE TROF PUSHES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING SOUTHEAST
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...OPERATING ON DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FAVORS A CHANCE
OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND MAINLY
LIGHT WIND PATTERN HOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY...TAKING ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BY
DAYBREAK EACH MORNING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODIFY INTO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE...71 TO 74 INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  94  74  93 /  05  05  20  05  30
PENSACOLA   92  76  93  76  92 /  05  05  20  10  30
DESTIN      90  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  20  10  30
EVERGREEN   94  72  95  72  93 /  05  05  20  10  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  95  73  94 /  05  05  20  05  30
CAMDEN      93  72  94  72  94 /  05  05  20  05  30
CRESTVIEW   93  73  95  73  93 /  10  05  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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