Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 191744 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THEN VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-14 KNOTS. A MVFR CEILING DEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT NEAR 06Z POSSIBLY WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AS
WELL...BUT THIS WILL BE LIMITED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING 5-8
KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 15-16Z MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
11-14 KNOTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WITH RAINFALL RATES DECREASING
HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. CONVECTION IS
EITHER ENTIRELY ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE NOT IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AND
HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH AS WELL. THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WORKING STEADILY
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
BECOME FAIRLY STEEP. IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND BALANCING WITH THE EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT A FEW STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO MATCH EXITING PRECIP THIS
MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS STEADILY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT SANTA ROSA AND
OKALOOSA FROM THE TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS TO MATCH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CLEAR A PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTING STEADILY EASTWARD AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO MATCH. MADE OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF TORNADO
WATCH #78 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 2 PM CDT FOR BUTLER...CONECUH...
COVINGTON...CRENSHAW AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AL...AND
ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA...AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS NOW MOSTLY EAST OF I-65 AS EXPECTED
AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AL WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 AM CDT. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA UNTIL 1
PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING THEN
DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PERIOD OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF AN UPPER JET
BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY SPC EARLIER WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WATCH LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS LOWERING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING THOUGH BEGIN TRIMMING
COUNTIES TO WEST POSSIBLY BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING AS THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE STILL
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY
MON MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF DRYNESS IN THE MID LEVELS BY THEN
COMBINED WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT AND BETTER LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
TO MID LEVELS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY MOSTLY FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALES 2 TO 3 DEGREES MAINLY TO THE EAST DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUDS. FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE ADDING 2 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TO THE WEST. TONIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MONDAY...WHILE AN EMBEDDED POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES VICINITY WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS FEATURE PUSHES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAST BATCH OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS
ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/21

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
PASS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /21

AVIATION...
19.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 19.15Z  THEN MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY THEN SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL GULF
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TODAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER IN
THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  66  80  56  78 /  20  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   78  69  80  60  78 /  20  05  20  05  05
DESTIN      76  72  79  62  78 /  90  10  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   80  65  81  52  79 /  30  10  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  64  77  51  82 /  30  20  10  05  05
CAMDEN      79  65  79  51  78 /  30  20  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  66  82  56  81 /  80  10  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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