Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 241634 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...WENT AHEAD WITH AN AMENDMENT WITH THE
CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR ALL SITES BASICALLY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UPSTREAM MOSTLY APPROACHING KMOB AND KBFM
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. HAD A THUNDERSTORM PASS THROUGH KPNS IN
THE LAST HOUR THOUGH BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY VCTS
CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANYMORE CONVECTION FORMING UPSTREAM FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KPNS ALSO FOR TODAYS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRI. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA
HAS OPENED TO AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS. THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW A REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO DROP SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...BUT SOME AREAS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA
(WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST) WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS. DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN (COASTAL) THIRD OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MODERATING AFFECTS OF THE GULF COME
INTO PLAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FILLS..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING EAST OVER
THE US/CA ROCKIES...AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...RESTORING ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
HIGH (PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.75") AND HELP TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN INFLUENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS. TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL ARE EXPECTED. WHAT THIS UPPER HIGH DOES IS TEMPER THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. POPS
START AROUND SEASONAL FOR FRIDAY AND DROP BELOW FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT PASSED OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RE-DIGS THE EASTERN TROUGH...ALONG WITH LETTING
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILD NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
A FRONT GET PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...TO NORTHERN AL/MS BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GUIDANCE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW ARE BEING
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY...GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE
POPS...ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COOL OFF A
BIT (MAINLY DUE TO THE RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DRYING OUT OF
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(24/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH REGARD TO CIGS AND SFC VSBYS NEAR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK REINFORCING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...
GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  91  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   88  75  90  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  78  88  77  89 /  50  20  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  93  71  93 /  50  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  93  72  94 /  30  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      88  70  93  71  93 /  50  30  40  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  70  92  71  93 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16








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