Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 261125 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
525 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast today. Northeast winds 5 to
10 knots this morning become southeast thru the afternoon as high
pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic. /10


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Surface high pressure,
positioned from the upper Mid-West southward to Louisiana, moves
quickly east to the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the day.
Sunny and dry conditions today with high temperatures close to
seasonal, ranging mostly in the mid to upper 60s. Night-time lows
moderate into the mid 40s interior to mid 50s coast. Best chance
of rainfall in the near term stays west of the local area from
the Mid-South to Louisiana and east Texas. 10/GJM

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...Medium range models
in fairly good agreement for short term period forecast. Both
ECMWF and GFS show surface high pressure ridging into the forecast
area from the east on Monday, with a well defined southeasterly
surface flow bringing increased low level moisture to the region.
PWATS increase to around 1.3 inches across most of the area by
Monday and remain near that level through Tuesday. Southwesterly
mid and upper (from 850mb up to 500mb) will provide some weak
isentropic lifting over the region Monday, and with models
indicating passing shortwave energy aloft on Monday that will tap
into the underlying instability and moisture, expect a return of
precipitation for forecast area on Monday. Rain chances will be
highest (likely) over northern portions of the forecast area which
will be influenced more by the passing shortwave, but all of the
forecast area will have at least a chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms. While PWATS remain relatively unchanged on Tuesday
and weak isentropic lifting continues, upper shortwave energy
appears to be less, and rain chances will be lower on Tuesday with
only isolated to scattered showers and storms expected. Highs
Monday in the low to mid 70s, and a little warmer on Tuesday in
the upper 70s and lower 80s. Monday night lows in the low to mid
60s, and in the mid 60s Tuesday night. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Chances for
precipitation bump back up again late Wednesday through Wednesday
night as a cold front is expected to approach the area from the
west during the day Wednesday and then move east across the region
Wednesday night. Both GFS and ECMWF remain in good general
agreement with this timing of the frontal passage. In response to
the approaching front on Wednesday, deep layer south to southwest
flow over the area in advance of the front will bring increased
low to mid layer moisture into the region, with PWATS likely
increasing to 1.5 to 1.6 inches. A few strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms will be possible along the squall and out ahead of
the front, with the most likely timing for our area as of now
looking to be early evening through overnight hours. But, current
data continues to suggest that the main dynamics and more
favorable shear will likely be north of our local forecast area,
so we will continue to monitor for any possible severe threat
further south. A cooler and drier airmass then settles over the
area in the wake of the cold front Thursday and lasts through
Saturday. Daytime highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s once again
on Wednesday in advance of the front, but cooling into the 60s
behind the front Thursday through Saturday. Lows in the upper 40s
to mid 50s Wednesday night, cooling to the upper 30s to mid 40s
for Thursday and Friday nights. 12/DS

MARINE...High pressure moves quickly east to the Mid-Atlantic
coast by late in the day resulting in a return flow off the Gulf.
Before then, with a moderate to strong northeast flow early in the
day along with moderate seas, will leave small craft advisories
unchanged through noon for southern portions of Mobile Bay and all
of the open Gulf waters. Onshore flow continues thru mid week.
Chances of showers increase on Monday along with a few storms. A
brief break follows on Tuesday with a slight chance of storms
expected on Wednesday ahead of next cold front approaching from
the west. Frontal passage brings a strengthening northerly flow
Wednesday night which persists into Thursday. 10/GJM


GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ631-632-650-655-



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