Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 261103 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
603 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Clouds stream eastward across the Gulf Coast today.
This morning cig bases are forecast to remain at high levels. Cu with
bases ranging from 3 to 5 kft possible this afternoon. Light and
variable winds early this morning become south to southeast 8 to 13
knots late morning into the afternoon. Patchy fog over the interior
is forecast to dissipate quickly after sunrise. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Very little change in the
height field aloft to start off the near term. A deep upper trof over
the southwest US maintains a down stream ridge...positioned from the
Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf to over the central Gulf Coast.
On the northern periphery of the ridge axis...clouds were streaming
eastward from Texas into the southeast. Considering satellite
trends...an upward adjustment to sky coverage percentages is
necessary. Appears clouds will continue to stream from west to east
through tonight. The Gulf high level ridge remains in an amplified
state over the local area as deep upper trof ejects across the four
corners of the desert southwest. Despite the upper ridge in
place...cannot discount a few...very isolated pop-up afternoon storms
here and there generally over the western half of the local area
given a slightly better deep layer moisture profile along with
daytime instability. Pops 10% or less. The axis of a surface high
pressure system extends from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast...resulting
in the continuation of a light south to southeast flow. Daytime highs
mostly in the mid to upper 80`s interior to 82 to 85 along the
beaches.

Latest short range ensembles indicate potential of patchy late night
fog development tonight. Will keep visibility in patchy fog between 3
to 6 miles as amount of cloud cover looks to mitigate lower
visibilities at this time. Little change in overnight lows with mid
60`s interior to lower 70`s coast. /10

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Narrow upper ridging
extending from the north central Gulf to the central east coast
weakens gradually through the period as an upper trof over the Plains
ejects off to the north and a system north of the Bahamas advances
towards the Carolinas. A surface ridge extending from the east
central coast into the north central Gulf shifts northward through
the period but should continue to favor a light southerly flow over
the forecast area through Saturday, then becoming northerly Saturday
night as the aforementioned system nears the Carolinas. While the
narrow upper ridging over the region weakens through the period,
model soundings show lingering effects of subsidence. Have opted to
continue with a prevailing dry forecast through the period, although
may see a storm or two develop each day. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s each day. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to near
70 at the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The system is expected to
meander near the Carolinas and gradually weaken through Tuesday, with
a northwesterly flow prevailing over the forecast area, except for a
southerly flow developing near the coast each afternoon. A prevailing
southerly flow finally becomes established by Wednesday as the
system either dissipates or moves further away from the region. Model
soundings show a cap or warm layer present near 700 mb on Sunday, but
this feature erodes by Monday. Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for Sunday, although a storm or two may develop, then
continued with slight chance pops for each remaining day. Highs on
Sunday will be near 90 over inland areas with mid/upper 80s near the
coast, followed by a slight warming trend with highs on Wednesday in
the lower 90s inland with upper 80s near the coast. Lows will be in
the upper 60s inland with lower 70s near the coast. /29

MARINE...An onshore flow is forecast through Saturday with high
pressure positioned to the east. As the axis of the high shifts west
of the area late in the weekend...a light westerly flow sets up late
Sunday and continues into Monday. Seas change little. Rain chances
look slim right on through the weekend. /10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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