Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 030250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES TO DISCUSS AT THE END OF THE EVENING
SHIFT. FIRST...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WAS UPDATED AND
ISSUED AT 1040 PM. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO IT...JUST
WANTED TO ISSUE AN UPDATED PRODUCT SO THE MID SHIFT WILL NOT HAVE
TO MESS WITH IT UNTIL LATER IN THEIR SHIFT. ALSO UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND OTHER UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS. LEFT IN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA IN CASE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FIRES OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE POPS
ARE A LOT LOWER THAN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THAT WERE
IN THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING...THERE JUST WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH A LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
DIMINISHEDSHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN...PARTICULARLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL
LEAVE THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE LATER IN THE SHIFT TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING AND TO UPDATE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

OVERALL THERE IS SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERN PERIOD. MORE ISSUES RESIDE IN THE
SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW IN TERMS OF
DEPTH AND SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL
LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL.

THIS AFTERNOON WE DO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
LEADING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KY. THE HRRR KEEPS HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE TIMING SEEMS A
BIT TOO FAST AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE SUB 1 INCH 1 HOUR GUIDANCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA FLOODING WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN THIS
EVENING ONCE AGAIN. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AT TIMES PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
SPOTS...LOWERING FFG...AND AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF OCCURRING IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OR SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATELY WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO GO WITH A
DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST A FEW DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED NORMAL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z. SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE
EVEN FURTHER WHENEVER A THUNDERSTORM OR INTENSE RAIN SHOWER
AFFECTS A TAF SITE...PERHAPS RESULTING IN LIFR OR WORSE CIGS AND
VSBYS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.