Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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346
FXUS63 KJKL 242053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
353 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 352 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017

Current conditions across the area feature clearing beginning to
make its way into central Kentucky and eventually into the
Bluegrass regions. This as the last of the drizzle and light
showers exits eastern Kentucky. Will expect to see this activity
leave the area by 00z tonight. With much cooler air already
keeping temps down this afternoon into the lower 40s, a bit of
clearing tonight may allow temps, especially valley temps to fall
into the lower 30s. With this clearing and subsidence moving in,
the development of fog and some of it dense is likely. Will
mention this in the HWO.

By tomorrow, southerly flow will be on the increase ahead of the
next system moving in. Models have trended upward on the amount of
moisture available as the parent low track is now a bit further
south. So will bring likely pops into the area by tomorrow
afternoon with temperatures rising to near 60 in some locations.

With this, a tight gradient in place in this pattern with
southwest winds on the increase, will expect winds to be a factor
with gusts reaching 25 knots in some places tomorrow afternoon and
tomorrow night. The higher elevations will likely see higher wind
gusts. Colder air will advect into the region in earnest Wednesday
night with lows dropping to near 30.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017

Most of the period will be dominated by cold weather with a west to
northwest cyclonic low level flow under a longwave eastern CONUS
trough. There will be multiple waves moving through the flow aloft.
The forecast timing and track of these waves is still likely to need
adjustment, but models are showing a general trend for a few waves
that are more prominent.

The first of these waves waves is late Thursday into Thursday night,
the second is late Friday into Friday night, and last one is
centered on Sunday. Each of these periods carries an uptick in snow
showers in the forecast, the most significant of which is on Sunday.

After the last upper level wave passes, the flow aloft flattens for
a brief time Monday night, before the next system heads east across
the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. Surface ridging moves to our east
at this time, and warm air advection finally returns for a brief
time ahead of a cold front (trailing from the Great Lakes system)
approaching from the northwest. This allows an opportunity for some
sun and at least a brief warm-up on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017

Across the area as of 18z, the northwest winds and constant IFR
cigs continue with lingering drizzle and even some light showers.
Will anticipate this to continue at least for several more hours.
Even only as of this hour has clearing made it into far western
Kentucky. This cloud cover may hang on a bit longer than
anticipated. Thus, will begin to lift the anticipated cigs tonight
after 00Z. In fact, with subsidence approaching and with the
moisture available, will likely see some dense fog tonight,
especially locations that completely clear out.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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