Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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680
FXUS63 KJKL 221927
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CU HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE 3 TO 4K FT
LEVEL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEARS BODIES OF
WATER. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/S MENTION OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG AFTER 6Z.

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD...EXPECT IT TO FIZZLE
OUT UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING...WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO LIKELY MAKE IT INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MAINLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE DYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND GENERALLY OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS/STRATO VARIETY. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT OR THE OVERALL WEATHER
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

SPEAKING OF TOMORROW...OTHER THAN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEIR
INCREASING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. STILL LOOKING A
DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE 40S OVERNIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID
50S BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT
LOOKS AS IF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. THE WARM WEATHER WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A STRONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
SHOULD THE MODELS HOLD TRUE...WE WOULD SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN STALLS OUT FOR A
TIME. THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
POSE LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING IF THIS FOG WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
REMOVE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG
THAT OCCURRED THE NIGHT BEFORE. EXPECT A SIMILAR SET UP DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DIURNAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



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