Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 180754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS TRENDS AND MODEL
RUNS...WITH NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBS AND TRENDS. EXPECT THE CURRENT 5 TO 10 DEGREE RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT IN THE EAST TO MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND CLOUDS
MOVE IN. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB PAGES. A FRESHENED
ZFP IS ON THE WAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWEST FROM THIS AND IS NOW CROSSING
INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR TO EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...
MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE
POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL GIVE THE NIGHT A CAA PATTERN FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...EVEN THOUGH SOME EASTERN VALLEY DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVING.
HAVE TRIED TO REPRESENT THAT IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS. DID FINE TUNE THE T AND TD
ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP LATER
TO REMOVE THE EVENING WORDING AND BETTER REFLECT THE SKY COVER ONCE
THE CLOUDS MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AFTER A ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS PRETTY MUCH LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM...IN THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE
A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH THIS TYPE OF A SYSTEM...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THEN AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE
LOWER LAYERS TO SATURATE IT...IT WILL FINALLY START HITTING THE
GROUND. SO IT WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SPRINKLES AND THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SHOWERS. IN EITHER CASE...JUST A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AND AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE BIG STORY IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL DEPEND SO MUCH ON THE WINDS AND
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. PUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST. DEPENDING OF THE WINDS AND CLOUDS...IT COULD BE BETTER OR
WORSE...BUT FOR NOW DECIDED ON PATCHY AND MOSTLY IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A BRIEF AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AS AN EXITING TROUGH 0Z MONDAY CONTINUES IT/S WAY
EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES.
WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/S MENTION OF POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE COOLER VALLEY REGIONS. THE
NEXT INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE CWA A
FEW HOURS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE-TURNED-TROUGH...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE SWRLY DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT WILL
ALSO PULL IN CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER THAN
RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN REGARDS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP...HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL LACKING A BIT IN TIMING AGREEMENT.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE PRECIP INTO THE AREA 3 TO 6 HOURS FASTER THAN
THAT OF THE GFS. GIVEN A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE TWO...EXPECT BEST
PRECIP CHANCES TO BEGIN ARRIVING BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z MONDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL HINDER BEST WARMING...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 60S YET AGAIN.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT/S EASTWARD TRACK...IT WILL
PRODUCE A DEEPENING TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A CLOSED LOW AS IT REACHES
OUR CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS PRECIP CONTINUING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF FAR SE KY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NW TO N WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BECOME
STAGNANT...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPSLOPE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE LOW TO FINALLY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD THAT
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF EASTERN KY.
WHILE THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ARE IN PLACE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL
LOWS...BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THEIR MAX
POTENTIAL...ONLY HITTING THE LOW 60S. ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO PLACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN EASTERN KY...WITH CLEAR
SKIES IN OUR SW COUNTIES AND CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AGL OVER MUCH OF
THE NE PART OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE
CEILINGS WILL SHOW AN OVERALL EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND LOWER IN
HEIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR BY AFTERNOON. AS
COOLING ALOFT OCCURS DURING THE DAY...THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL GROW
GREATER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ON SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AND
THE BLUEGRASS REGION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL






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