Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280215
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 TONIGHT. THESE HAVE LIKELY BEEN RELATED TO
SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO FIRING UP ALONG A NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO
WEAKEN AND DIE OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUITE THE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH 3 HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 PLUS
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE OVERALL
CONVECTION AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUING TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR AND IR SAT. ALSO MANY OF
THE CONVECTIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE DO SHOW THAT AS WE GOING INTO
THE LATER EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG
PRODUCTION DO WE SEE...DO THINK VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE
A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING
AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ELEVATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW POP UP STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THEY
WILL REMAIN BRIEF. MAIN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
LIMITED. WITH THAT SAID...THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT FRONT WITH A GOOD
CHANGE IN AIRMASS. THUS...PLAN TO GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON THE
POPS AS WE ARE MORE LIKELY SEE SOMETHING EVEN IF IT IS MORE
SPORADIC. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AND EVERYTHING
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER SHOULD ABOUND FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL BE KNOCKED BACK AS
WELL...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL TAF SITES ARE REMAINING VFR TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SOME
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING QUICK DROPS
TO SJS AND SYM THIS EVENING BEFORE THE STORMS DISSIPATE. THE ISSUE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WHERE SITES SAW
HEAVIER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE
THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS IN PLACE AND HOW THAT COULD
HAVE A AFFECT ON THE OVERALL PRODUCTION. RIGHT NOW BRING IFR TO
MOST SITES WITH LIFR FOR SME/SYM FOR VIS. THINK THIS WILL CLEAR AS
WE MOVE INTO THE DAWN HOURS TUESDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED
VCTS AT ALL SITES AT 16Z GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH EXCEPTION OF SITES THAT GET A HEAVIER STORM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ


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