Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211927
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
327 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 AM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s across far southern
Kentucky to about 30-40 miles north of the Tennessee state line.
Farther north into northeast Kentucky, a stratus deck has kept
temperatures in the low 50s with no signs of this mixing out
anytime soon. Have accordingly lowered high temperatures for this
afternoon north of Mountain Parkway. May very well need to bump
them near the Tennessee border given approaching mid-high clouds
and stratus remain north/west through peak heating. As mixing
continues across south central to southeastern Kentucky, at least
up through about 2500 feet, frontal boundary and subsequent
surface undulations should remain confined to the Volunteer state
as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Have therefore
lowered PoPs to only maintain slight chance mention across
southern Wayne to Bell Counties late this afternoon through this
evening as elevated convection works southeast out of the Midwest
and across the Tennessee Valley. Trends continue to point to
showers/storms remaining south of the Commonwealth, so outside of
any outflow boundaries from preexisting convection working into
eastern Kentucky, mainly dry conditions should remain in play
through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Convection near the cold front continues to move east southeast to
southeast from near Manchester southeast into southwest Virginia.
After a lull in lighting activity cloud top temps from GOES 16
test not yet operational imagery were near -51C with multiple
cloud to ground lighting strikes in the southeast Leslie, southern
Perry extreme western Letcher County and on into Harlan County
near Cumberland and Black Mountain. These will probably exit into
VA a bit earlier than the initial forecast grids per cloud top
temp and radar trends.

The cold front will continue to sag southeast before slowing down
or stalling out over the TN Valley. The boundary should reside
approximately near the I 40 corridor by midday. North of the
boundary, a considerable amount clouds are expected, but very
little if any convection is expected today. Convective allowing
models which did not handle overnight convection well, develop
convection near the vicinity of the confluence of the OH and TN
Rivers and then track it along the boundary generally south of the
area as a couple of surface waves of low pressure move along the
boundary. There is some uncertainty as to how far the boundary
will get before height falls associated with a shortwave trough to
move across the OH Valley region this evening. Also, recent GFS
and ECMWF have some weaker convection near the TN border during
the evening. Locations further to the north should only experience
an increase in clouds especially at mid and high levels as the
shortwave moves through. Showers and possibly a couple of
thunderstorms could affect parts of the Lake Cumberland region and
the TN border during the evening and some slight chance to chance
pops have been used during that time period in that area.

Otherwise as one of the surface waves of low pressure reach the
Carolinas and high pressure builds south from Ontario, the
boundary will sag further south of the area with cold air
advection in its wake anticipated along with a gradual decrease
in clouds from north to south. Temperatures generally along and
north of the I 64 corridor could fall to the freezing mark or just
below tonight with lows mainly ranging through the 30s elsewhere.
Locations along the TN border may not fall below 40 however. The
high will bring colder and drier air into the region overnight and
on Wednesday and below normal high temperatures are expected with
the far north probably not reaching 45 and the far south climbing
to about 55. This high and airmass will set the stage for a
rather cold late March night to start the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

A warm front will work east late Thursday and Thursday night with
warmer air spilling into the Ohio river valley. We could squeeze
out a few sprinkles as the boundary pushes across the area, but
the boundary layer will be so dry, shouldn`t be much reaching the
ground. The warm air really makes its presence felt by Friday with
highs well into the 60s. A cold front will work east towards the
area on Saturday. Very warm air will continue to be pumped up
ahead of this boundary with temperatures pushing into the mid 70s.
Models continue to slow down the approach of the cold front. It
looks like the bettter period of rainfall will come Saturday
evening into Saturday night as the front makes its way across the
area. Still some question as to how strong storms could get, but
something we will have to monitor as it has potential to be some
strong storms with modest shear in place. More uncertainty arrives
in the forecast by Sunday as another system will quickly be on the
heels of hte first and there is some question on if we see a lull
between the two systems, or the weather stays active right on
through the early portion of next week. Regardless, will go with
the blended rain chances from Sunday through Tuesday. Mild weather
looks to continue well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Stratus continues to hold strong this afternoon, mainly along of
and north of Mountain Parkway. Have begun to see this mix out
slightly with LOZ/SME returning to VFR criteria while JKL/SJS/SYM
remain socked in underneath MVFR ceilings. All terminals should
return to VFR levels by late this afternoon as mixing continues
and a frontal boundary, currently along the Kentucky/Tennessee
border, edges southward ahead of drier air filtering in from the
north. Increasing pressure as this occurs will allow for an uptick
in northerly winds to near 10 knots tonight as ceilings lift.
Pilots heading south toward TYS/BNA/MEM/ATL need to be on the
lookout for thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening.
CB chances currently look to remain south of much of the Kentucky
airspace, with a stray shower/storm possible near the Tennessee
border.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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