Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 090756
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CREEK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING. THE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE SOLIDLY INTO
THE 80S...BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO AROUND 60
BOTH AFTERNOONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LOWS INTO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER AND
IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLEMING TO WAYNE COUNTIES. BY SATURDAY EVENING SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE AREA...IT WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED AND WET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BE
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. BY THIS TIME THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS THE
COLD AIR AND THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THE BLENDED TEMPERATURES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...HOWEVER DID NUDGE THE
TEMPS TOWARD THE RAW ECMWF AND THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR
TOPOGRAPHY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION
LATELY...PARTLY DUE TO THE DRY SPELL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED
AN HOUR WINDOW OF PREVAILING SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THE THREAT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 11Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...KAS





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