Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 150816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...WITH MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST...AND TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SOME PLACES. DENSE VALLEY FOG IS MORE PROLIFIC
EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOW STRATOCU
CONTINUING TO PLAGUE FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLER START AND CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH JUST A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS MEAGER BY THE TIME IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH...AND LOWER 70S IN
THE SOUTH. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DRY UP BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BE OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH...MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...INCLUDING FAR SE KY. A LITTLE BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STORM
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND HEADS EAST OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS KY FROM THE NW WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH DAWN. THIS
INCLUDES MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSYM...WHERE
SOME LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD THE FOG AT BAY. THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. WSW WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL ALSO ENGAGE DURING THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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