Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 011735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF JKL ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE
EDGES AND SKIES SHOULD GO MOSTLY SUNNY EVERYWHERE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLOW BREAK UP TO THE CLOUDS UP NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
HINDER TEMPS THERE BUT EXPECT A LATE DAY RALLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 70S WHILE LOCATIONS IN FULL SUN OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
REACH THE LOW 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS RECENTLY AT IOB AND SYM.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE FOG OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BLUEGRASS AND GATEWAY REGION. DESPITE VERY LOW VSBY AT
JKL AND PBX...FOG IS NOT THAT DENSE IN THE VALLEYS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
SOUTHEAST KY IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. KJKL VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES CLOUDS ARE ABOUT 10K FT THICK...SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND IS JUST ABOUT TO
LONDON/SOMERSET. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT OVERCAST
SKIES THIS MORNING. BASED ON YESTERDAYS TRENDS...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE
TO BREAK THROUGH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND GET INTO THE SUNSHINE.
FOR THIS REASON...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ON A SLOW RISE THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE EXPECTED HIGHS AS CLOUDS
BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...STRATUS
YESTERDAY DIDN`T LIFT OR BURN OFF UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY.
ALSO...DEALING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES THIS MORNING.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LESSEN THE FOG THREAT IN THE VALLEYS AND PUT
MORE ONTO THE RIDGES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING BEHIND
A WASHED OUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED OVER THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THESE CLOUDS
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THIS MORNING WITH THE AREAS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER STAYING MILDER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
ANY CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THESE CLOUDS ARE
VERY SHALLOW WITH NO DEPTH. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER FANTASTIC FALL DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE
50S...ONLY THIS TIME...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL YIELD BETTER FOG POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SKIES
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS IS A TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE EXTREME SOLUTION WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH/S ENERGY DIVING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NOW
THAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE MOVED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO...THEREBY
JOINING THE ECMWF...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THIS SETUP. THE
INITIAL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/S ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA
WILL SWEEP THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
OTHER BATCHES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND
FURTHEST SOUTH MODEL WITH THIS TRAILING ENERGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT GIVEN THE TREND HAVE FAVORED ITS FORECAST. THE LARGE TROUGH
THEN SITS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RELAXING A BIT.
THE LATEST ECMWF IS MORE INSISTENT ABOUT A RESURGENCE OF THIS TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE PATTERN OF THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTER THROUGH
TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WILL PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED AND THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE
LATTER PORTION...TEMPERING THE EURO/S ENTHUSIASM

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST MILD NIGHT AND SEASONABLE DAY
TO START THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT BARRELS INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HEALTHY GRADIENT WITH IT KEEPING THE WINDS UP
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THE RIDGES. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND BE A CONCERN THAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. DO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT POST
FRONTAL AS SURGES OF COLDER AIR MOVE INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THIS FRONT AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/S
CORE WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY AND A VERY COLD NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS CAN DROP OFF...SOME PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
SETTLE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY DAWN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PUSH OF COOL TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT
DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH INTO TUESDAY AND COULD LINGER A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.

THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE  EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH AGAIN DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE LATEST EURO
SOLUTION EARLY. ALSO TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS WITH
JUST A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT THE LOZ...SME...AND SJS
TAF SITES AROUND DAWN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...ABE






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