Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 011335
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
935 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WARM AND STICKY DAY IS ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. FORTUNATELY THERE IS ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY. THAT BEING
SAID...ONLY NEEDED TO DO A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE TEMPS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND FOG THE TEMPS STAYED UP A BIT THIS MORNING SO
HAVE INPUT THE LATEST TEMPS AND DEW POINT VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
TREND ACCORDINGLY. HAVE SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z FEATURE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDST OF A VERY BENIGN PATTERN. SURFACE
CONDITIONS BEING A BIT DRIER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT IS
PLAYING A BIGGER ROLE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT SOME AREAS ARE
STILL SHOWING A 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AND THIS HAS
BEEN STAVING OFF FOG DEVELOPMENT A BIT. HOWEVER...FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS STILL HIGHLIGHTED IN MOS DATA AND PERSISTENCE INDICATES THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAWN AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
FOG IN THE HWO AND THE ZONES.

THAT SAID...EAST KENTUCKY REMAINS IN A DRYING TREND AS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND UP THE
OH VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK SUPPORT IS TO THE EAST ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS HAPPENING UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN
CONUS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
CONTINUES TO MEAN WEAK STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH KY
WEATHER DICTATED BY WEAK SUPPORT AND MUGGY TROPICAL AIR. THAT
SAID...THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE COUNTIES BORDERING VA
WILL BECOME MOST LIKELY THE PLACES TO SEE ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MORE LIKELY TIME WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HI RES
MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COUPLING WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY POSSIBLY SPAWN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
HARLAN AND BELL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN THE
PATTERN AND THIS OCCURRING YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH
PERSISTENCE AND SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE VA AND WV BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS (ALTHOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS HUMID AS IT COULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). DESPITE
THE RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN EVEN MORE REMOTE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST AS A THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE...BUT THERE JUST WON`T BE THAT MANY TO SPEAK OF.  BEST
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...OUTSIDE OF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...SHOULD BE A DECENT WEEKEND FOR LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
THUS...FOG HAS BEEN A BIT LESS IN COVERAGE AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TAFS FOR FOG THIS MORNING AND BECOMING VFR BY 14Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMAL
CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
LESS LIFT AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND. SOME MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AGAIN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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