Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281732
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
132 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T AND TD HOURLY GRIDS WITH RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FOG AND FROST FROM
THE ZONES. ALSO ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH MOST
RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED
GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS OF FOG HAVE BEEN COMING IN THIS
MORNING FROM VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS...SO THE FOG IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z IS ON THE MONEY. BASED ON TEMPERATURES SEEN IN A
NUMBER OF SURFACE OBS...SOME FROST HAS ALSO LIKELY OCCURRED THIS
MORNING. THE ZONES SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE UPDATED BY 9 AM TO REMOVE
MENTION OF FOG AND FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START WARM AND
DRY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS ON THE MID
60S ON TAP FOR TODAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL A VERY NICE DAY TO BE SURE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE A BIT
MORE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT COULD
BE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. THE
NAM12...GFS...AND HIRES ARW AND NMM MODELS ARE ALL KEEPING EASTERN
KENTUCKY FREE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH
BOTH BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. ALL THAT
BEING SAID...WITH A FEW SETS OF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING SOME
PRECIPITATION GETTING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY AROUND DAWN ON
WEDNESDAY...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND LEAVE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING AT 8 OR 9Z ON WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AT 0Z THURSDAY. THE NEW FORECAST WILL FEATURE MUCH
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THAN BEFORE...ALONG WITH A SLOWER NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE JUST IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT THEN COME MORE IN LINE WITH
EACH OTHER OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH ITS
AXIS PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE BASE OF
THE LARGER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLOSED LOW
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FOR THIS
THE GFS IS STRONGER...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEM. THE SLOWER AND DEEPER GFS TAKES THIS LOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ALREADY MOVING IT OFFSHORE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS
WILL BE TICKING UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH...WITH THE GFS AND GEM MORE IN SYNC THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THIS...NOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL PLACE EAST KENTUCKY IN
THE MIDST OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES PASSING BY AT MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHER HEIGHTS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PATTERN FURTHER FLATTENS OUT...WITH BETTER
MODEL SUPPORT. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS IT GETS
PICKED UP BY THE STILL ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
WILL BE FAVORED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COLD START TO THE EXTENDED
AS A SFC LOW BENEATH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SLINK
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF...AND ITS STRONGER...COASTAL SFC LOW...IT KEEPS
THE QPF AND LOW LEVEL RH MORE ROBUST OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT PREFER THE WETTER SOLUTION. MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH
INCREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND WARMER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SLOWS
AND SETTLES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY... SETTING UP CLOSER TO
OUR CWA IN THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE IT PARKS ITSELF.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS FOR SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS EACH NIGHT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TOMORROW. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD...IF AT ALL.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM



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