Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290855

National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017

08z sfc analysis shows high pressure building south into
Kentucky. This has brought just slightly drier and cooler air to
the region with plenty of low level moisture remaining. As a
result, low clouds still plague our night sky with some earlier
clearing in the Cumberland Valley and north of Interstate 64 now
filling back in. Temperatures are running just a tad cooler than
last night with most places in the upper 40s to lower 50s while
dewpoints are holding within a couple of degrees of the dry bulb
values. The amount of clouds and light north to northeast winds
have prevented the fog from getting much of a foothold so far
across eastern Kentucky - but do expected a few patches in the
valleys toward dawn particularly in places that manage to get some

The models are in much better agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast when compares to yesterday at this
time. They all depict a decent mid level ridge through Kentucky
and the Ohio Valley today as a deep southern stream low rolls into
the Southern Plains. This trough then will progress northeast to
the Central Plains tonight further bolstering the ridge over our
area. Energy from the trough will approach Kentucky Thursday
morning as the main portion lifts further into the middle of the
country. This continues to be the case through Thursday with the
trough holding strong while crossing Missouri with the GFS and
ECMWF nearly identical at mid levels - heightening confidence in
the blended solution. This will also place eastern Kentucky in
southwest flow for that afternoon and evening as heights start to
fall. Given the strong model agreement have favored a blended
solution with a lean toward the higher resolution ones for wx
details, especially on Thursday.

Sensible weather will feature a return of sunshine later today
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s most places.
However, there will be a significant difference in warmth north
to south across the area with low 70s found near the Tennessee
border and cooler lower 60s to the far north closer to the center
of the departing high pressure. A large ridge to valley
temperature difference is anticipated tonight in the course of
WAA and southerly sfc winds kicking in through the night keeping
the ridges better mixed while radiational cooling chills the
sheltered valleys. Patchy valley fog can be expected, as well,
into Thursday morning. For Thursday proper, warm temperatures
will be the rule with southerly winds and some sunshine helping
readings soar into the mid and upper 70s. This will also raise
instability throughout the area later in the day and should
triggers arrive showers and storms will be possible - along with a
potential for severe weather late depending on upstream
development and evolution. The better chances for severe activity
for eastern Kentucky will occur later in the night and not match
up all that well with the best diurnally driven instability.

Again used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for
the grids with some rather large, terrain based adjustments made
to temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, made some minor adjustments
to better target the still generally low chance PoPs later in the
day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017

A shortwave trough will advance east across the region Thursday
night into early Friday morning sending widespread showers and a
few thunderstorms across the region. Given good moisture and lift,
will maintain the categorical pops through this period. The mid
level low will cross northern Kentucky Friday afternoon with
numerous showers likely well into the afternoon, making for
another cloudy, cool, and damp day. Rain showers will wind down
into Friday night, but may transition to some patchy drizzle as
some low level moisture will remain left behind. Any drizzle will
come to an end by midday Saturday with the rest of the weekend
featuring a return to dry weather as a surface ridge spreads
eastward across the region.

Our next storm system looks to arrive on Monday and Monday night
sending another round of rain showers into eastern Kentucky. Looks
like pretty strong southeast winds with this system through
Monday, so we`ll have to see how much that eats away at potential
rainfall given the downsloping conditions. In fact, some areas may
struggle to measure with the kind of solution models are currently
centering around. Eventually forcing will win out and we should
see some showers or storms over most of the area, certainly by
Monday night. Wrap around moisture may keep a chance of showers
going into mid week with another system following on the heels of
this system yet again. The active and wet weather looks to
continue. Models also support a continuation of the mild weather
outside of a cooler day on Saturday with the clouds.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Low level cigs - mainly IFR - will be in place across most of the
area through the rest of the night locked in place by northerly
flow. The exception will be in the Cumberland Valley where a
reprieve its underway - though a period of low cigs are still
possible towards dawn. Look for clearing for to overtake the rest
of the TAF sites between 15 and 18Z. While fog development in the
valleys will be hindered due to the persistent low level cloud
cover, a few spots with visibility below IFR are anticipated
through dawn but should not affect any TAF site. Winds will
remain light - generally from the northeast to southeast through
the period.




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