Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260248
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Temperatures have cooled a little quicker than expected this
evening, but expecting this trend to slow as dewpoints remain in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Patchy river valley fog still in play
tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies
overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said,
not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development
tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into
the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across
portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater
rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still
looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday
morning in a decoupled environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as
the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of
the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely
pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but
instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few
gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be
heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak
and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the
precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and
deep moisture settle to our south.

Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but
as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under
an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass
should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then
hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually
start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly
Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a
poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS
ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for
silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VFR conditions expected to persist this evening through Sunday
afternoon. Patchy fog looks to be largely confined to deeper
river valleys as crossover temperatures were able to mix into the
low-mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Portions of northeast and far
eastern Kentucky, who experienced greater amounts of rainfall
Thursday, remained slightly more moist thus perhaps leading to a
better chance of lowering visibilities occurring at higher
elevations. Nonetheless, potential looks to be rather low for sub-
VFR visibilities at this time. Light east/southeast winds this
evening will veer southwesterly Sunday afternoon while remaining
near or below 5 knots. Thunderstorms will begin to nudge eastward
Sunday afternoon, but look to remain low enough in coverage to
warrant nil mention pre-00Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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