Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 212009
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MID SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND PUTS AN END TO THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ENSEMBLES ARE EXHIBITING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A 590+ DAM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEING FLATTENED/SHUNTED EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BY DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 850/925 MB CLIMO ON MONDAY-TUESDAY
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF AT LEAST AROUND 90/LOW 90S...BUT MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SYNOPTIC SET-UP WITH FLATTENING
RIDGE FAVORS MAINTAINING LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS ON MON-TUE AS SW
FLOW DISTURBANCES COULD KICK OFF SHRA/TSRA IN PRESENCE OF MINIMAL
CAPPING PER SOUNDINGS AND CONTINUED LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS. ANY TSRA
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN PROGGED PWAT VALUES IN 1.5 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE.

AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MONDAY HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS. IF THIS
OCCURS...FORECAST HIGH TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE...WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20SC AND 925 MB TEMPS IN
THE MID 20SC. BOTH DAYS COULD HAVE SOME LAKE COOLING GIVEN FAIRLY
WEAK GRADIENT AND FLOW ALOFT. IF CLOUDS/CONVECTION DO NOT LIMIT
WARMING POTENTIAL TOO MUCH...THEN BOTH DAYS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SPREAD INCREASES ON THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO SPEED AT WHICH DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DIG INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD EVEN
THIS FAR OUT FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS POSITION OF CWA
BETWEEN DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS A
SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STRONG LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
PWAT VALUES COULD NEAR 2 INCHES. INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS PENDING MESOSCALE COMING TOGETHER. 12Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY ON
FASTER END OF SPECTRUM COMPARED TO GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DICTATED BY TIMING...AS UPSTREAM AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY ON LATEST ECMWF. THURSDAY TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT DID NOT
STRAY AWAY FROM SMART BLEND.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
  ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

* EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH UNDER 10 KT

* LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...LATER
  THIS EVENING..AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING

* POTENTIAL EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

THUNDER HAS REMAINED WEST AND NORTH WITH THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE IN EASTERN IOWA THAT WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL
SHOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN
CENTRAL IOWA SPREADS INTO ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
INDIANA THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS BUT THIS MAY BE A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
RUSH WHERE THERE MAY BE THUNDER IN THE VICINITY AND IS A PERIOD WE
WILL MONITOR IN THE COMING HOURS.

THEN THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE EVENING TIME FRAME AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DIMINISHES. WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN RAMPS BACK
UP IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA. IF THIS ACTIVITY GETS MOVING INTO
ILLINOIS IT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE PUSHED THE
GOING PROB30 BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN AND WINDS SLACKEN.

KMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW IN THUNDER
  CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-MEDIUM IN THUNDER CHANCES
  LATER TONIGHT BUT IF IT OCCURS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

* LOW-MEDIUM IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOW ON CEILING AND VISIBILITY TRENDS OVER THE PERIOD

* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM IN
  SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.


KMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA
  WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS/VIS.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
205 PM CDT

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO. A FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND THIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE SOME
VARIABILITY AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GUSTS IN THE WINDS...BUT ANY OF
THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. THE WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE BY SUNDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A SURFACE TROUGH / COOL
FRONT PASSES.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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