Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 210925
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY.
320 AM CST

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ON
THE TIMING OF RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS PRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE AND
EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY EITHER RIGHT AT FREEZING OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREAT
FOR SOME MINOR GLAZING ON UNTREATED SURFACES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING...ESSENTIALLY
ENDING THIS THREAT. ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN...BUT DRY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH AN INITIAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY...TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS STILL WOULD KEEP ALL OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A DECENT RAINFALL PRODUCER FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST TIMING BEING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SHOULD RESULT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE TWO ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE FIRST AROUND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME...AND THE SECOND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT AS THE PRECIPITATION ONSETS LATE MONDAY MORNING...THAT IT COULD
START AS A MIX OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW...GIVEN THE INITIAL COOL
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY WARM
THINGS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ALL RAIN AREA-WIDE BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE A MID
LEVEL DRY PUNCH...WHICH IF DOES OCCUR WOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LOWER CHANCES OF MUCH
ADDIONAL RAIN. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR LOOK TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH 40S EXPECTED.


LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS HAVE BECOME MORE DIVERGENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
RUNS...WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS EVEN NOW INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE DUE TO THE FAILURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS MANY
MODELS HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 3.5 TO 4 DAYS AWAY...I AM HESITANT TO MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT
APPEARS THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE REALLY JUST
SHOWING US THE INHERENT HIGH AMOUNT OF CHAOS IN THE SYSTEM WITH
SUCH A RAPIDLY CHANGING PATTERN. AS SUCH...I REALLY HAVE NO
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE LATEST 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
WOULD PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL RUNS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOW
SIMILAR TRENDS BEFORE BEGINNING TO MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES. MY
HUNCH IS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE BY THURSDAY...AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM IS
EXTREMELY HIGH...GIVEN THAT THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT FIRST.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING PRE-DAWN AND LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH
  THE PERIOD.

* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FOG/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
  MORNING...THOUGH BETTER POTENTIAL WEST/NORTHWEST OF CHICAGO
  TERMINALS.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...

AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS MOVED ACROSS CHICAGO TERMINALS...THOUGH
SURFACE OBS UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTHWEST INDICATE CIGS RISING BACK TO
VFR AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTIUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
SOLID MVFR CIG/VIS AND DZ/FZDZ JUST OFF TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INCLUDING KRFD.

RATZER

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 06Z...

LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EXPANSIVE
AREA OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR EXTENDING UPSTREAM TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS TERMINALS. MAIN MOIST AXIS AND LOWEST
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
LIFTING FROM IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...SETTING UP LIKELY IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KRFD. FARTHER EAST...CHICAGO
AREA TERMINALS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BUT LOWER
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. GIVEN
EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE EAST OF SOUTH
IN 170-160 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME GUSTS ABOVE
15 KT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...THOUGH SHALLOW MIXED
LAYER ARGUES AGAINST PREVAILING GUST MENTION.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS THIS MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR FOG AND DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL THIS MORNING.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. RAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

TUESDAY...ONCL SHRA. IFR PROBABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SHSN. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RA/SN LATE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
240 AM CST

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON STRENGTHENING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS...POSSIBLY GALES...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVED EAST OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN LAKES TODAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE
25-30 KT RANGE FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AND
BEING TO FILL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND WINDS TO DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE BECOME MORE DIVERGENT OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS...WITH QUITE A SPREAD IN THE LOCATION TRACK AND DEPTH OF A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
OHIO OR TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL...GUIDANCE INDICATING A
WEAKER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLING WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK
AND THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT. WITH SUCH DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS HAVE AVOIDED MAKING LARGE
SWINGS IN THE FORECAST...AND HAVE HELD ON TO THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND FIELD DURING
THE LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD. ADJUSTMENTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE
REQUIRED AS SUITE OF MODELS DEVELOP BETTER CONVERGENCE/AGREEMENT IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

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