Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 181427
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
927 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
258 AM CDT

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF SURGE OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND T-STORM
CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND IS PICKING UP MOMENTUM DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE FRONT ON THE
WESTERN SHORE ALREADY THROUGH MKE AT 07Z. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
LOSING SOME OF ITS UMPH...STILL SHOULD SEE A MODEST-MODERATE
NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL LAKE COOLING
RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WHERE TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL MILD TEMPS IN THE 70S WELL
INLAND WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE. LAKE STRATUS HAS SLOWED ITS
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE ALREADY SO NOT THINKING IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR AREA...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD MAINLY BE INTO NE IL AND
TEND TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT SOON
ENOUGH OR WITH ENOUGH GUSTO TO PREVENT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED FRIDAY WITH H8
TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM 6-8C FROM 12Z FRI TO 00Z SAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY SUNNY SO BIG QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THE
PROGGED 18Z 850/925 TEMPS FAVOR MID-UPPER 70S WHILE 00Z TEMPS
SUGGEST 80S...FOR NOW HAVE CONSERVATIVELY MAINTAINED MID-UPPER 70S
WHICH IS GENERALLY A BIT ABOVE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
WARM AND POTENTIALLY VERY WARM SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...SO IT IS LOOKING LIKE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
INTO THE 80S? THE FORECAST 850/925 TEMPS ACTUALLY COULD SUPPORT
MID-UPPER 80S...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS ONLY CRANKING OUT TEMPS AROUND 80
SO AM LEARY ABOUT GOING TO CRAZY WITH TEMPS PARTICULARLY WITH TIMING
OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER QUESTIONABLE. MAINTAINED THE GOING
FORECAST HIGHS WHICH ARE ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT SET-UP REALLY LOOKS
FAVORABLE TO ME FOR HIGHS GETTING WELL INTO THE 80S IF CLOUDINESS
DOESNT MUCK THINGS UP.

COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH DEEPER MIXING THAT FORECAST
COULD CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT AND RESULT IN WEAKER INSTABILITY.
NONE THE LESS...MODEST CAPE AND MODERATE-STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORM THAT DO DEVELOP.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING THIS ISNT A TYPICAL BIG SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SET-UP AND COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY NOT BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE LOWER RES GLOBAL MODEL QPF WOULD SUGGEST...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW END LIKELY POPS AND THOSE COULD BE A BIT
OVERDONE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A MODERATELY HEALTHY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPS FROM CONSIDERABLY BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY REBOUNDING
BACK CLOSER TO AND PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID-LATE WEEK.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* WIND SPEEDS TODAY.
DZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EAST OR BACK EDGE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DECK AT THE TERMINALS.  THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE
CEILINGS EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST IL AND IS MOVING STEADILY TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CELING DECK AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ERODE AND LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER AREA OF MORE CONVECTIVE YET SHALLOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE MI TO
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO MIX OUT THE AIRMASS.  AS THIS
OCCURS WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
TONIGHT AND SOUTH TOMORROW. DZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY.

DZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED
12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
254 AM CDT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 25 KT IN ITS WAKE. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTH END OF THE
LAKE ALONG WITH THE HIGHER MAGNITUDE WINDS. WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO FRESHEN UP AGAIN...INCREASING TO 30 KT BY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GALES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG GALES WILL
LAST WITH SOMEWHAT STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
MIXING...AND MODERATE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS MAKING THE
DETAILS A BIT MURKY THIS FAR OUT. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT THOUGH. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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