Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 230011
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
611 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
258 PM CST

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AN
INFLUX OF WARM...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER
MISSOURI WHILE DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN IL. NWRN IN HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR IN EXCESS OF 50F AS FAR
NORTH AS MIDWAY AIRPORT AND AURORA AS OF 230PM CST. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNDER THE
PERSISTENT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION UNDER A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO 45KT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOVER
AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE.

KREIN

&&

.LONG TERM...
258 PM CST

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTH HIGH PLAINS PHASES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. THESE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OF 984MB NEAR ST LOUIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES...WHICH
IS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS FOR THE REGION. THIS PHASING
OF THE TWO SRN STREAM SYSTEMS COMBINED WITH THE UNUSUALLY HIGH
PWAT AIRMASS WILL COMBINE TO FOCUS STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A
CORRIDOR OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PERU TO MCHENRY...WHERE
UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH PER 3 HOUR PERIOD IS POSSIBLE. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE PHASED SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE DEEPENING
LOW...THE GFS IS A MUCH STRONGER OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...DEEPENING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO ARND 966MB BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ONLY DEEPENS THE LOW TO
ARND 980MB. WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION MAY BE TOO DEEP...LIKELY
DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...OR TAPPING MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY...THERE WILL STILL
LIKELY BE A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHOSE CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL COVER A LARGE
EXPANSE FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TO NERN QUEBEC. A STRONG WLY-
NWLY GRADIENT WILL SET UP ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM...LEADING TO STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA FROM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH.
HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM EVOLVES A LITTLE DEEPER THAT THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE AND DEEPENS CLOSER TO THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION...WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OF SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER OR GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER.

ALSO...AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM ONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...LINGERING PCPN WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW.  SINCE THE COLD AIR SHOULD
EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE...THERE SHOULD BE A MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.  THERE COLD BE SOME ISSUES WITH WATER
FLASH FREEZING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AS SUB-FREEZING AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY
MORNING.  THE PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE
DIURNAL WARMING WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO ARND 30F OVER THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE BE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES
THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
EAST COAST.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER GENERAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING A PERSISTENT FETCH OF
COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE OR SFC
FORCING.  ANY SNOW GENERATION WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MID-LEVEL FORCING
AND MEAGER MOISTURE CONTENT.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* VFR CIGS FALLING TO MVFR THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY IFR LATE
  TONIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND LIKELY BY LATE
  AFTERNOON.

* MVFR VSBY EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE.

* ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
  OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. BETTER
  CHANCES LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEADIEST
  RAIN BY EVENING.

* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD TURN
  SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN BACK SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.

* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH 45 KT WINDS AT 2000
  FT AGL.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

CIG/VSBY TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ARE THE INITIAL
CHALLENGE...FOLLOWED BY WIND TRENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TIMING/COVERAGE
OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING A STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO CONTINUE. MVFR
CIGS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM UGN TO
KC75. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR AND AM EXPECTING MVFR
TO RETURN BUT IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN THE 00Z TAF REFLECTS. BEYOND
THAT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD BETTER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
BY CARRYING BKN VS OVC IFR CIGS FROM LATE TONIGHT ONWARD. AM
CONCERNED THAT IFR MAY EITHER BE BRIEF LATE TONIGHT OR NOT DEVELOP
AT ALL SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN IFR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY HOWEVER. HAVE THE
SAME CONCERN FOR VSBY AS WELL AND HAVE TRENDED UP THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND LITTLE COOLING
EXPECTED NOR ANY LOSS OF CLOUD COVER...SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTION
WILL BE DIFFICULT. 3-5SM VSBY MAY END UP PREVAILING SO MAY NEED TO
MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS OVERNIGHT.

IN TERMS OF SHOWERS...AN UPPER WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING INTO
TONIGHT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT BAND.
STILL THINKING GYY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OVERALL BUT MDW MAY
BE SKIRTED IF MORE SOLID NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. OTHERWISE
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY NEW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SO OPTED FOR A VCSH
MENTION AT ALL BUT RFD...THOUGH THE CHANCE AT RFD IS NOT ZERO. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND MOVE
NORTHEAST BRINGING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. EXPECT THIS
TO MOVE INTO RFD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POINTS EAST INTO
THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE AHEAD OF IT FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. CIGS/VSBY WILL FALL
AS THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN WITH LIFR POSSIBLE.

HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
THROUGH GUSTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL DICTATE HOW WINDS EVOLVE INTO THE EVENING
AND AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SUPPORTING A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN BACK SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE OF AN EAST COMPONENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

MDB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS FALLING BACK TO MVFR. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FALLING TO IFR
  BEFORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT MAY
  IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT. LOW-MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW
  THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTH. HIGH
  CONFIDENCE THAT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
  ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LLWS POTENTIAL.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WESTERLY WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND MVFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...

231 PM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN
BORDER TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AS IT DEEPENS AND ABSORBS THE LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS REGARDING HOW STRONG THIS LOW WILL BECOME. THE DEEPEST OF
THE MODELS HAS A PRESSURE OF 28.5 INCHES MIDDAY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING FOR MID/HIGH END GALES SO WILL BE GOING WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE GUSTS OR PREVAILING
WINDS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS STEADILY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT ON THURSDAY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
     LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM TUESDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...NOON MONDAY TO 3 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

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