Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 221138
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
638 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...
246 AM CDT

Through Tonight...

A change in air mass will gradually occur through today with the
tropical air mass ousted for one more seasonal of late August.

Early morning satellite and radar imagery indicate a broad area of
convection, with a couple embedded MCVs, from northern Indiana
to western Illinois, back through the Kansas/Missouri border
region. One MCV will track across the southern CWA edge through
daybreak, keeping thunderstorms confined to that area. Some parts
of far southern Ford/Iroquois/Benton Counties will likely finish
by mid-morning with 2-3.50 inches of rain, but spread out over
many hours which is limiting flash flooding concerns. To the
north of this MCV, stratiform rain will occur for the early
morning commute up to near the I-88 corridor.

Most of this activity, assisted by the long wave through
progression and embedded cold pools, will shift southeast of the
area by mid-morning. Isolated showers behind this may develop on
the true cold front, which will clear the area by early afternoon.
The morning clouds will be scoured out shortly after the frontal
passage as well. Northwest winds will gust to around 20 mph
behind the front, gradually advecting in drier air. Upstream
temperatures yesterday peaked in the upper 70s and would expect
similar for local highs today, with dependence on specific time
of clearing.

The orientation and speed of the winds along the northwest Indiana
shore will cause concerns for rip currents, particularly the
Porter county shore. A Beach Hazards Statement for this goes into
effect this afternoon through midday Wednesday.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
246 AM CDT

Wednesday through Monday...

By Wednesday morning, a strong upper long wave trough for late
summer will have taken shape over eastern Canada into the Great
Lakes region. After a nice day Wednesday, the northwest flow aloft
will drive a short wave impulse down across the western Great
Lakes into early Thursday. This clipper feature has been indicated
on several runs of global guidance, and will likely be enough to
boost clouds Thursday morning with possibly some sprinkles or
light showers. This wave also influences a secondary cold front
southward and a cool enough air mass (850mb temperatures <8C) over
the lake to support some lake effect clouds. The moisture depth
is pretty marginal for any lake effect showers, but could see
lakeside areas especially in northwest Indiana more cloudy on
Thursday.

Highs look to be in the lower 70s Thursday leaning toward raw
model guidance. With a 1025 mb high forecast to be centered over
Wisconsin Thursday night after the cooler day, lows into Friday
morning look cool. Some patchy mid 40s in outlying locations
seem reasonable, with 50s in the metro area. For the start to
high school football for many communities on Friday night,
temperatures will likely still have that early autumn taste as the
air mass only gradually modifies.

While some significant differences in global guidance exist
heading into the latter half of the weekend into early next week,
the chances for convection presently look limited, and only have
small chances for showers mentioned at this time. With such a
stout high over the region heading into the weekend, it may take a
while to usher it out, and do not see any significant systems
forecast from the west/northwest in the GFS/EC/GEM.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...

Main forecast concern will be some lingering mvfr cigs until late
morning. The remainder of the day should be quiet.

Latest radar trends show some lingering showers or light rain, but
the back edge of the pcpn is moving fairly quickly to the east. A
very moist air mass in the wake of the band of pcpn will leave the
potential for some mvfr cigs for a few more hours this morning. As
cooler, drier air advects into the region, winds will gradually
veer to nwly with ocnl gusts to 18-20 kt. By mid-day, skies will
becm mostly clear this afternoon with winds remaining gusty. By
sunset, winds should diminish and skies should clear out.

&&

.MARINE...
241 PM CDT

Main marine forecast concerns continue to be on a period of
northerly winds down the length of the lake Tuesday night into
Wednesday. While not overly strong, the long fetch will likely
result in small craft advisory conditions for the shores of
southern Lake Michigan.

In the near term, a cold front has become nearly stationary near
the north shore of the Lake in the Upper Peninsula. Low pressure
is expected to develop along this front over Wisconsin tonight,
moving northeast over far northern Lake Michigan early Tuesday
morning and trailing a cold front which will push down the lake
during the day. The low is expected to deepen later in the day as
it pulls away into Quebec, setting the stage for breezy northwest
winds across the lake. These north-northwest winds will continue
into Wednesday before weakening as high pressure spreads into the
region. The high eventually late Thursday, allowing winds to
diminish and waves to subside. The strongest winds, 20-25 kts, are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with small craft
advisory conditions expected along the southern shores of the lake
from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ002...1 PM Tuesday to 4 PM
     Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM Tuesday to 4 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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