Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 241307
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME MAINTAINING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BEGIN. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ADVECT WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S.
TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN A CU FIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WOULD BE
ISOLATED.

THE LOW WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A
WARM FRONT IS TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF THE MD/PA BORDER. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THEREFORE WETTER
ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF THE MD/PA BORDER.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE REGION WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
80S. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THU IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MAY ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS WED NIGHT
AND TRACK EWD INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION THU. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRES
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC. ATTM...MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEP THE AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR BRINGING MODERATE RAINS
TO THE REGION. LOW PRES THEN PUSHES EAST LATE THU NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME S LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. S WINDS INCREASE TO 10- 15 KTS
MONDAY. SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20KTS G 25KTS TUESDAY.

LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS WINDS BECOME FROM
THE NE BEHIND A CDFNT WITH MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS
BECOME S TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON THE WATERS MONDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER. WINDS
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND THEN
AGAIN FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY TODAY WITH RH`S DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. MOISTURE RECOVERS SOMEWHAT MON BUT
STILL WITH CRITICAL RH`S. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 MPH
LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT MON. WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
ON TUE WITH RH`S UNLIKELY TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. SPS
MAY BE NEEDED BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR
FIRE WEATHER...LFR/BJL



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