Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 170130 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
930 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic tonight and
hold through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Skies are now clear across much of the fcst area except over
Highland and Pendleton counties where sct-bkn clouds are still
present. Model guidance show these disspipating after 07Z. Some
bay-effect clouds are also possible over lower bay and lower
St. Marys county as cold air moves over the warm waters of the
bay.

Pattern supports undercutting MOS. Utilizing a bias-corrected
raw consensus, frost should be fairly widespread west of I-95
and the mountains of Highland/Pendleton/Grant Counties should
achieve a freeze. Warnings/Advisories are in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be building over the Mid Atlantic though the
period. There won`t be a lot of distinction between the days...
each will be sunny, and clear at night. Temperatures will be a
little below normal... more so Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, when more Frost/Freeze headlines are possible (where
growing season lingers). Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday
as the thermal trough exits. Accepted a blend for high temps,
and using the bias-corrected consensus grids for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather conditions are expected Thursday into Monday as
surface high pressure is centered near or over our area. High
pressure will begin to slowly move offshore on Saturday. A cold
front approaches on Monday. High temperatures will be gradually
increasing from the low 70s on Thursday to the upper 70s on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 5 days. Winds will diminish
this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
The gradient will be slow to relax, and mixing will be
favorable well into the evening. In addition, winds 1000-2000 ft
up will be better poised to mix over the warm waters compared
to land. Therefore, current line-up of Advisories ending tonight
or Tuesday morning look good.

High pressure will move overhead for mid-late week, which will
lead to lighter winds.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ003>006-
     501>503-505-507.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ025>031-
     039-040-050-051-501-502-505-506.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ050>053-
     055-503-504.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ501-502-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>533-
     539>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-535-
     536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/HTS
MARINE...IMR/HTS



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