Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 200751
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
251 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the west today. Cooler air will
seep south tonight into Tuesday. A weak disturbance will cross
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will be
located off the southeast coast of the United States for the
second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The latest surface analysis depicts a ridge of high pressure
stretching from the Great Lakes to Georgia. Aside from some high
clouds, there is little tangible weather ongoing, and that
should be the case for much of the day. The only process to
monitor will be temperatures. A northern stream shortwave
crossing New England and the Canadian Maritimes will invoke
northerly flow and cold advection. Believe temperatures will be
up to 10 degrees cooler than this weekend. There is fairly good
consensus on today`s MaxT field, and accepted this consensus
approach.

Flow turns northeast ahead of the ridge axis tonight, which will
allow marine air to move inland and overspread the area.
Meanwhile, flow aloft will be southwest, making for an
overrunning setup. Have increased clouds, first in the mountains
(where the low-level flow will be upslope) but eventually
areawide. Am focusing more on clouds than fog. Further, these
clouds don`t look partularly low. In spite of the cloudcover,
advection will bring temperatures down into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A 500 mb full-latitude shortwave axis will approach the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. However, it appears as though the
northern and southern streams will split-- the northern vortmax
breaks down the ridge in the northeastern United States while
the southern vort gets left behind along the Gulf Coast. The
impact to the Mid Atlantic a bit muddled. Certainly, this will
be a cloudy period, and can`t rule out scattered showers
beginning Tuesday night. However, am having difficulty
believing it will be as wet as current guidance runs
suggesting...or for as long. Did increase clouds/PoPs on
Wednesday, but am still holding onto the thought that there
will be clearing in the wake of the vortmax Wednesday afternoon.

Tuesday will be the coolest day...an artifact of clouds and
onshore flow. However, once the ridge axis pushes east of the
area, there is sufficient warmth ready to return.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Shortwave-ridge builds over the area Thu and Fri. It will be
very warm especially Thu with highs in the 70s. Some locations
may reach mid to upper 70s.

Deep low pressure moving across the Great Lks Fri night and Sat
will push a cdfnt through the area Sat morning with showers and
t-storms likely some of which could be strong to severe and pose
a risk of damaging winds given fast 0-6km mean flow of 45-50kt
and weak instability. Cooler wx returns for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR for the valid TAF period. Mostly clear to clear skies this
morning. As onshore flow commences tonight, low clouds will
increase...first in the mountains but eventually everywhere.
The greatest probability is that conditions remain VFR. There is
a lower chance that ceilings dip below 3000 ft.

Ceiling lift but remain broken Tuesday. Then a disturbance adds
a shower chance Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. If there
is an opportunity for flight restrictions, this would be the
time frame that it would happen.

No significant wx expected on Thu. Strong cdfnt fcst to cross the
area Sat morning with t-storms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the waters today into tomorrow,
resulting in relatively light winds-- 10 kt or less. Winds will
become north today, northeast then east tonight, and eventually
south by Tuesday or Tuesday night. A passing disturbance may
provide a shower chance Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Strong cold front will move through the waters Sat morning with
showers and t-storms likely, some of which could be severe and
produce strong damaging winds. Gale force winds are also likely
post-frontal.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high minimums were set yesterday at IAD and BWI. See
RERs for more details. More record high mins are likely later
this week especially on Fri with possible record highs on Thursday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/LFR
MARINE...HTS/LFR
CLIMATE...LFR


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