Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281305
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
905 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES MONDAY....MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
CONUS TODAY. IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WEATHER-WISE...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR EVEN ABOVE YESTERDAY/S ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
SHOULD BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT IN DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
MIDWEST TROUGH. MIN TEMP GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY...CHOSE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE AS SKY SHOULD BE OVERCAST BY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL...MID 50S PIEDMONT AND WEST...AROUND 60F COASTAL LOW LANDS
AND LOW TO MID 60S IN URBAN/NEARSHORE AREAS.

MONDAY...UPR TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING. SFC HIGH OVER NC WILL LIMIT LLVL MOISTURE AND
LOW POPS COULD ONLY BE JUSTIFIED FOR CNTRL VA. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT FROM A HIGH-BASED CLOUD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST NGT I WROTE A LENGTHY DSCN BASED ON DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS
INVOLVING A GULF CST LOW...A CAD WEDGE...AND A PTNL UPR LVL VORT.
NMRCL GDNC HAD LOTS OF POPS IN THE XTND...BUT MDLS HV A TENDENCY
TO LEAN TOO HIGH OVERALL. TNGT THE MDLS APPEAR TO HV COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE LOWER POP SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE THE WAY
TO GO.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVR THE GULF STATES IS STILL THERE MON NGT/TUE...ALTHO
DISORGANIZED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHCS OF PCPN
WL RMN TO OUR S...W/ THE LOW TRACKING OFF THE CAROLINA CST TUE NGT.

WEAK HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA WED-FRI. HV BUMPED BOTH THE HIGH AND
LOW TEMPS UP SVRL DEGS - THESE WERE BLO CLIMO NORMS (M70S HIGHS/
A50 LOWS) BUT HV PUSHED TO THE U70S DURG THE AFTNS/MU50S OVRNGT.

THE NEXT BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE LOOKS TO BE SAT AS A CD FNT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VIS BACK TO VFR AT MRB WITH FOG DISSIPATING. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...MID-
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT CHO MONDAY OTHERWISE VFR CONDS XPCTD MON-
TUE. LOW VIS AND/OR CIG POSSIBLE MID-WEEK IF CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM NY STATE TODAY WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW AGAIN MONDAY UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.

WINDS MAY REACH SCA VALUES TUE AND WED AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND THEN THE CST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ABW
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/BAJ/ABW
MARINE...BPP/BAJ/ABW







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