Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 241926
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE TO START THE WORK WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WINDS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHED WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS A BIT TRICKY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS...LOWER TEENS NEAR THE MASON
DIXON LINE. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...DIMINISHING WINDS AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MD...WESTERN LOUDOUN AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST STAND A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST VS
FREEZE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN LATE WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY THEN SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION BY SAT EVENING CENTER OF SFC
LOW REACHES THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH CONFIDENCE PCPN WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THIS TIME...QUESTION REMAINS ON
HOW QUICKLY IT REACHES NORTHEASTERN MD...WITH THE THINKING IT
SHOULD REACH SOMETIME BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN ALIGNS...BUT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GENERALLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING WV INTO SOUTHERN VA...EXPECTING
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST SUNDAY...PCPN PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. AREAS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON COULD DRY AS EARLY AS SUN
MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING AREA LOOKING TO BE DRY BY
SUNSET SUN EVENING. THE ONE AREA THAT COULD SEE PCPN SUN NIGHT-
MONDAY IS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LVL LOW.
WAA OVERNIGHT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM UP BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPS...CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOWFLAKE
MIXING IN FOR A PERIOD LATE SUN NIGHT FOR THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDWEEK.
LOW ON SOUTHERN TRACK MOVING TO WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BEFORE
STALLING AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE ON NORTHERN TRACK WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERN LOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF CWA AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW CENTER OVER
LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL SAT NIGHT-SUN WITH RAIN IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SUN AFTN...WITH VFR THEN SUN
NIGHT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...VSBYS
WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE PSBL
OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS SUN AFTN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE SUN NIGHT.

INCRSG WINDS ON MON SHOULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ON ALL WATERS
MON-MON NIGHT. PSBL LINGERING SCA GUSTS INTO TUES...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY TUES NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRY HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ011-
     503>506.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     507-508.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-038>040-051>053-501-502-506>508.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     505.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531-532-
     539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
     537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...SEARS/KRW
MARINE...SEARS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...



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