Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 250759
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region into the
weekend. Low pressure may affect the region late in the weekend
and into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 3am...1022mb surface ridge extends from Roanoke to the north
Florida Atlantic coast. Light west winds over the LWX CWA (unless
decoupled) east of this ridge. Temperatures are slowly approaching
the dewpoint, expect some ground fog around sunrise.
The surface pressure ridge will shift east to the coast through the
morning hours. The associated light west winds over the area will
back sly through the afternoon. Mid-level ridge will trail the
surface ridge with a firm cap in place east of the Allegheny Front.
Only PoPs in near term are chances over the Alleghenies late this
afternoon through tonight as activity from eastern KY drifts east.
Max temps depend on mixing which will be light...but downsloping
into the afternoon. Weighed MAV most in blend since it has performed
well in the past two days. Expect mid to upper 80s today. Expect
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer tonight under increased
moisture and mid-level clouds.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure offshore Thursday will maintain light southerly flow
and increasing moisture with dewpoints reaching the mid 60s.
Diurnally driven thunderstorms expected first in terrain with
chances near the Bay from breeze boundaries. It may take awhile for
activity to develop on the Piedmont. Likely PoPs for the complex
terrain with chances east given expected popup activity. The warming
trend may level off Thursday with increased clouds and moisture
despite the sly flow.
Increasing moisture trend continues Friday with a Bermuda High.
Expect 70F dewpoints and more scattered convective thunderstorms.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer is almost here..and it becomes more difficult to find
noticeable features in the models as temperature/pressure
gradients become weaker. Saturday looks warm as a sub-tropical
ridge influences the Mid Atlantic: highs in the mid 80s are
expected. Perhaps isolated thunderstorms could develop over the
mountains in the afternoon/early evening.
Upper level moisture from a developing disturbance off the SC
coast could bring increased clouds into the region Sunday. Highs
in the lower 80s. Again a chance of afternoon/evening
The moisture flow is expected to continue during Memorial
Day/Tuesday. Still - by no means is the holiday looking to be a
washout. Scattered showers/storms will be possible with
considerable cloud cover. Super Blend has high temps in the mid
70s while GFS keeps them in the low 80s. This will be somewhat
dependent on cloud cover. The same is true for Tuesday.
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through tonight under high pressure today.
Light sly flow and diurnal thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. ifr
conds expected in heaviest activity.
VFR conditions expected to continue Saturday. Main problem Sunday
is the potential for afternoon showers/thunderstorms.
Light westerly flow becomes southerly this afternoon and persists
through Friday as high pressure over the area this morning shifts
east to Bermuda by Friday.
No problems foreseen on the waters Saturday or Sunday.