Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 210800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1007MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER NRN OHIO. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OVER THE WRN PA/CNTRL WV.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE INTO A OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT SOUTH EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ISO THUNDER IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW CENTER. THIS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WLY FLOW PREVAILS...BUT IS QUITE
WEAK. THEREFORE THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
(CATEGORICAL WEST). MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY (THE AIRMASS IS
ALREADY IN PLACE)...BUT CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECISE DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA COAST.
POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF I-95 FROM
WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF LOW. EXPECT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

FLOW BECOMES WLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY. NWLY
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 30 KT BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LINGERS
OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW
LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES BUT FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLD LVLS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!






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