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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260115
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
815 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gusting to 40 mph will continue this evening, with
  visibilities to around 1 mile at time in blowing dust.

- A wet pattern arrives Friday into this weekend, with the 24
  hour probability for greater than 0.5 inches between 50-80%.
  The highest probabilities exist across northwest Minnesota and
  south of Highway 2 in North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The upward trend in RH values (to around 30% or higher) and
downward trend in strongest gusts (now below 45 mph) matched the
timing of our hard products and I let them expire as scheduled
at 8 PM (01Z).

UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Breaks in cloud cover allow for very deep mixing and lower Tds
held on longer than guidance indicated in ND resulting in RH
values under 30% with the strong winds gusts creating persistent
Red Flag conditions in eastern ND (especially northeast ND).
Winds have also be stronger with reported gusts around 50 mph
reported in the valley with some funneling likely contributing
to momentum transfer. Near open fields where stronger winds are
in the valley blowing dust has resulted in visibility in the
1-6 mile range with brown out (1/4 mile or less) in the
immediate proximity of some fields creating highly variable and
hazardous travel.

Considering these trends during the late afternoon; The Red Flag
Warning was extended across eastern ND, the Wind Advisory was
expanded, and a Blowing Dust Advisory was issued for the
northern Red River Valley. All products were extended to 8pm
which should correlated with the end of the strongest winds and
lowest RH values (though we will need to continue to monitor).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Deep mixing today brought the higher wind gusts to 30
to 40 mph and drier air (RH values below 30%) down to the surface
for a Red Flag warning to be issued for our Minnesota counties.
Observation show RH values to be a little higher (30-40%) for
eastern North Dakota. Guidance was under mixing for our area and
retaining more moisture than what was occurring. A wind advisory was
issued for the North Dakota side of the Red River Valley with both
the advisory and red flag warning ending at 00z. Tonight into early
tomorrow morning the first low pressure system will ejects into the
Central Plains and slowly moves northeast to increase cloud cover
over our region. Cam guidance has the precipitation moving in from
the south near sunrise. While probabilities for greater than half an
inch of precip are around 50 - 70%, probabilities for an inch or
more are between 15 to 30% along the Red River Valley with the
higher chances extending as far north as Traill and Norman County
for the first system Friday and Saturday. There currently looks to
be a break in the rain showers late Saturday evening until Sunday
morning. Another system will impact our region starting Sunday
morning. This system looks a little bit drier and maybe weaker than
the first system. The track for this one looks to cut right through
the Northern Plains leading to a more widespread stratiform rain.
However, the probability of exceeding an inch of rain are less than
10% while probs for 0.5 inches are between 30 to 50% for the region.

Tuesday through the end of the week temperatures look to be in the
60`s and 70`s with an overnight temperature in the 40`s. Guidance
has the region in a more drier Westerly flow but with these warmer
temperatures some cumulus development may lead to some brief pop-up
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Blowing dust had resulted in IFR visibility reductions at KGFK,
otherwise the primary aviation impact across eastern ND and
northwest MN will be gusty southeast winds. The strongest gusts
should end this evening, but 15-25 kt winds remain likely until
low pressure shifts east-northeast into the region Friday. This
low pressure will also bring increasing chances for MVFR and IFR
ceilings and rainfall to all sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...DJR