Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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033
FXUS63 KFGF 051547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MORNING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN VALLEY. DID INCREASE POPS THERE WITH VSBY DOWN TO ONE
AND A QUARTER MILES AT GWINNER. SMALL AREA OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE EAST WITH SNOW EXITING WEST CENTRAL MN BY MID
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT LEAST TO START OUT WITH. BY
SUN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY. BY 12Z
MON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WI/IL AREA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES A BIT TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES AGAIN SAT WITH WARM FRONT MOVING
IN. THE ECMWF WAS A FARTHER NORTHEAST SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE TWO MODELS. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUN.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON LATE SAT INTO SUN AS SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN. WILL UPDATE THE SPS FOR
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AS THE WEEKEND UPPER LOW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKE ON MONDAY AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH ON TUESDAY COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT WITH MODELS HAVING A LOT OF VARIATION
IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...KEPT THE FAIRLY LOW POPS THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION GIVES US. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST
THE COLDER AIR COMES DOWN. BLENDS GIVE US A FAIRLY GOOD GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR TEMPS WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM 36 HUNDRED FT IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES TO OVER 12 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOG
LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED THE LOWER DECK WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST
ZONES AND INTO SOUTHEAST MAN. LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO
BE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE TRAILING EDGE WAS STATIONARY.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER CLOUD DECK OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND
APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE MASKING THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL HAVE VFR CIGS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TO REMAIN
CLEAR TONIGHT MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES



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