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000
FXUS63 KFSD 060447
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1047 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW STRATUS HAS LARGELY
SCATTERED OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING LEVEL WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF...DO NO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
MUCH REDEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THAT
THEY ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SCATTERED NATURE...STRATUS MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY SUGGEST. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY OR EVEN INCREASING LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE READINGS FALL OFF
MORE QUICKLY NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH FRESH SNOWFALL. BUT WITH
WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AROUND 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE RIDGE...DOWNSLOPING MAY SPIKE READINGS LATER TONIGHT.

ANY RESIDUAL STRATUS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS FURTHER DRYING AND MIXING OCCURS. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN PLACE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S AND 40S - FINALLY NEARING SEASONAL NORMALS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE SNOWPACK WHICH IS CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT MELTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY OR
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR AND BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE HEAVY SNOWPACK IS FRESH. COULD
SEE SOME NUISANCE DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES PERHAPS AS LOW
AS A MILE AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

A COLD FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON
FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTHWARD...SO KEPT ONLY SLIGHT POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
WEST LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY WARM 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...OR POSSIBLY JUST PLAIN RAIN IN OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...WOULD EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF
MOISTURE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT DRAGS SOUTHWARD...MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR
INTO LOWER NORTHWEST IOWA WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE. STILL COULD HAVE A RISK OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
ANYTHING THAT OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY...THOUGH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND RELATED COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES...THINK THAT PRECIPITATION IN OUR SOUTH WOULD MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD ACCUMULATE TO NEAR
AN INCH BY EVENING. MODELS INDICATING 925 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY BE EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THEN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 30S
THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
WITH SKIES SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT COLDER AIR WILL STILL BE ENTRENCHED IN
THE EAST WITH HIGHS ONLY LOWER AND MID 20S EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE MUCH BIGGER WARM UP WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WESTERN
U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY BOTH DAYS
WITH HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES. MODELS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO
DISSIPATE A BIT AROUND SUNRISE BUT A DECENT CHANCE TO REFORM AS
WARMING ALLOWS A LITTLE MIXING AND THE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KFSD AND
KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08