Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 251939
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
239 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Not a lot going on in the near term. Strong upper low will drift
across Minnesota and Iowa tonight, then begin to close off again
with the center near Lake Superior on Monday. This will keep a
strong cyclonic northwest flow aloft in place for the forecast area.
Stratus will continue to erode from west to east through the late
afternoon and evening hours giving clearing skies. Thus lows will be
chilly tonight, especially considering what we have experienced the
past several days, with widespread lower to mid 40s in store.
Trended toward the cooler guidance readings such as MOS, and even
lowered those values down a bit in our western zones where winds
will be lighter. Another breezy day is in store for Monday with
mixed layer northwest winds averaging about 25 knots in our west, to
30 to 35 knots east of I 29. 800mb moisture drifts down the Missouri
River valley in the morning and midday hours, which could develop
some cumulus clouds. But otherwise it should be mostly sunny with
highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s mixing from close to 850mb.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Very quiet medium and extended range forecast in general, with very
few targets of opportunity to improve on ongoing forecast.
Progressive upper trough will stall over the Great Lakes by Monday
and begin to separate from the northern stream early in the week.
With this eventual cutoff low settling into the Ohio River valley,
and mid-level heights rising over the Central US due to troughing on
the West Coast, an extended period of dry and seasonal weather is
expected. Extended models do begin to vary by next weekend with
the evolution of cutoff low to the east. It appears the next
chance for meaningful precipitation may hold off until the 3rd or
4th of October.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Lower end VFR to upper end MVFR cloud cover will slowly erode from
west to east across the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
In addition, northwesterly winds will frequently gust to 25 to 30
knots this afternoon. By early evening, all locations will be VFR
with subsiding winds. Clear skies will prevail overnight and into
Monday.


&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...MJ



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