Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 262125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

AS BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 925 HPA TEMPS FALL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER...EXPECT
RELATIVELY SMALL RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBFREEZING THROUGH THE DAY
THINK THIS IS MORE OF AN ARTIFACT OF THE COLD AIR THAN ANYTHING
ELSE...SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY
AS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN AND 925 HPA TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20 C.
HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SNOW COVER AND
THE EXPECTATION OF LIMITED SKY COVER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH FROM THE NORTH.  PRECISE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
ARCTIC PUSH IS ILL DEFINED...BUT HAVE SIDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER PROGRESSION AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE POPS CONTAINED TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

700 MB FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  AS THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO INTENSIFY.
WITH THE SNOW INTENSIFYING AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WILL LIKELY SEE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO DE
SMET AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AS THE WAVE
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BAND OF SNOW WILL APPROACH I-29
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY DRIVING THE ELEVATED
BOUNDARY SOUTH.

AM CAUGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
AREA IS IN THE LEFT FRONT OF INTENSIFYING JET STREAK ACROSS THE MID
WEST LEADING TO WEAK LIFT.  QUESTION REMAINS HOWEVER AS TO WHETHER
THIS LIFT WILL BE REALIZED AS DENDRITIC LAYER

SECOND WAVE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 00Z
SATURDAY.  THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE 750-700 MB
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A VERMILLION SD TO JACKSON
LINE.  EXPECT A QUICK 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MAIN AXIS.  WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL -SN
BEGINS TO FALL AS MAIN DYMANICS APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. KFSD AND KSUX WILL MAINLY BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM IN THE FORM OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...BUT EARLIER THEN
THAT AT KHON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR SDZ062-066-
     067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR SDZ068>071.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ020-031.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEITKAMP


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