Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 250430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1030 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

System moving quickly through with a lot less punch than expected. A
fairly widespread 1-3 inches of snow, most closer to 1 inch but
along highway 14 into parts of southwest MN there will likely be
some 3-5 inch reports as the band was stronger and slowed a bit
there. Dropped the warning this morning and will be trimming the
advisory from the southwest by mid afternoon. Most of the
accumulating snow should be done in southwest MN by early evening as
the warm advection shifts east and the drier air aloft moves in.

A fairly stout westerly gradient will develop overnight and continue
into Sunday, but for now not anticipating a lot in the way of
blowing snow. Especially since amounts are on the lower side of
expectations. Do not doubt there will be some minor drifting and
refreezing though, especially across north/south roads, as winds
will gust to 25 mph at times. Lows should not be too cold tonight
with some wind in place so aiming for about 10 to 15 with wind
chills about zero to 5 below.

This system does not have much cold air with it so highs on Sunday
will be mild with quite a bit of sunshine. Highs will pretty much be
30 to 35 in most spots.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Monday into Tuesday both look to be on the mild side with west to
southwest flow aloft. Both days should be partly cloudy and
provide some decent melting. Lows in the single digits and teens
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.

The models are beginning to come into some agreement for Wednesday.
Obviously too early to get into any details but could be our next
snowmaker. May be fighting some slightly milder temperatures in
parts of northwest Iowa but overall should be a snow threat for
most. Once this system exits on Thursday mild air will fill in
behind with highs in the 30s Thursday through Saturday as ridging
aloft builds through. All models indicating a large scale trough
digging across the Rockies and spreading out onto the Plains
Saturday into Sunday that could provide some changing weather into
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
around 10 to 20 kt from the west to west southwest.




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