Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 300334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1034 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...SETTING UP ANOTHER
MAINLY CLEAR...CALM AND COOL NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LOWS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 50 AND 55. WILL HAVE A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WEAK THETAE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREA ALSO SEEING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM
AND SREF SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WEST OF THE JAMES TOMORROW WITH THIS
FEATURE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THIN AND MINIMAL CAPE...WITH A
CAP ABOVE 600 MB. THUS DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MORE THAN
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
ELSEWHERE...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CU FIELD SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT A 1C ACROSS THE BOARD
TOMORROW...MEANING WE WILL PROBABLY END UP AROUND 2 TO MAYBE 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 77 AND 82. AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ...SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRETCH OF PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD TREND.  FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC POP OVER THE FAR
WEST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
DROPPING SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DESPITE RATHER POOR
MOISTURE...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE  PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL WAVES
OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY ALL OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY
LIGHT ECHOES.  GENERALLY THOUGH...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AND WE`LL STILL HAVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT OF NORMALS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FORMS NORTH OF THE CWA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY.  SEVERAL DISORGANIZED WAVES OF
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND DEPENDING
ON THEIR TRACK...WE COULD HAVE OUR FIRST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAINS IN
SOME TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 31/06Z. THE LOW
LEVEL AIR APPEARS TOO DRY FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...





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