Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 132012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH...WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT IN A TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FALL OFF
HOWEVER LATER IN THE NIGHT IN OUR WEST AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...SO ALL IN ALL STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S.

ON SUNDAY THINK MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DECENT...AND REMOVED SLIGHT
POPS FROM THE FORECAST WITH ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF DELAYING THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR SOUTH UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WHEN
THETA E ADVECTION INCREASES AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH UPPER QG FORCING SHOWING THE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING FROM
NORTHEAST SD TO SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID LEVELS STILL
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS...ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...HELPING TO PRODUCE A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 90...WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BUT THE
WAVE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS
TIME IN OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS ARE CONCENTRATED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH SMALL POPS LINGERING IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. DESPITE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVING A LIGHT NORTH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND A WIND
SHIFT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM TANKING...AND IT APPEARS
MANY OF THE CONSENSUS AND MOS VALUES ARE TOO COLD. WENT WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 IN OUR NORTH WEAR THE CONSENSUS/MOS VALUES LOOKED
PRETTY GOOD. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL FOLLOW WITH WHAT WILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY AND READINGS IN THE 60S.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT A LOT GOING ON FOR A BULK OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ROCKIES GIVING OUR
AREA A STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BECOME QUITE WINDY. A LOT OF DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS DOES EXIST BY VERY LATE IN THE WEEK HOWEVER.
THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT BACKED UP BY THE LATEST
ECMWF...NOR THE 06Z GFS. THEREFORE ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
THAT FAR OUT AND WILL CERTAINLY FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...JM



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