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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 251022
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
622 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control with dry weather Thursday and
Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below
freezing Thursday night. Warm front moves through Saturday and
Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming
trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

630 am update...

A cold start to the morning with temperatures ranging in the
mid 20s to low 30s across the region. Minor changes were made to
update temperatures with current observations, otherwise
previous forecast remains on track.

245 am update...

Surface high remains in place for our region keeping conditions
quiet and dry. Meanwhile at the upper levels a trough slowly
begins to lift north of our region with a ridge building in
behind it. This keeps cooler air in place today with
temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon. Despite this
mostly sunny skies are expected which will allow conditions to
feel warmer. Clear skies persist into the overnight hours with
calm winds allowing temperatures to drop off into the upper 20s
to low 30s across the region. Adjusted temperatures a few
degrees lower using the NBM 10th percentile.

Upper ridge moves ahead on Friday with winds shifting to the
south/southeast. Surface high still holds with another pleasant day
in store for the region. Temperatures will begin to trend
slightly warmer under this pattern with highs climbing into the
upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies persist for most of the day
with clouds moving in Friday night ahead of the next system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the region Friday night should give way to
an approaching warm front from the Ohio Valley. Initially  the
airmass looks rather dry ahead of the warm front. However,
enough lift and moisture eventually looks present by late
Saturday for clouds and spotty showers. One more clear night
Friday night but with southerly winds beginning to pick up
ahead of the warm front, low temperatures look to end up several
degrees warmer in the mid and upper 30`s. Even with the clouds
and spotty showers Saturday most locations should get to around
60 for highs. Top gusts Saturday afternoon are modeled to get to
around 20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds, spotty showers and continued southerly winds should continue
Saturday night. As a result, the warming trend continues with spots
staying well up into the 40`s. We look to be firmly in a warm sector
through Monday. While the warm front stays to our north, enough
moisture looks to be in place to continue a mention for isolated
showers and even thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as
well. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70`s
Sunday and even the low 80`s Monday. With the amount of moisture on
the increase low temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60
early next week.

The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around
1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s. In terms
of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to
be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to
thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty
wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have
a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any
strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over
the next several days.

High pressure attempts to build back into the region for the middle
of next week with a cooler Canadian airmass moving in as well.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals. Northerly winds under 10
knots persist today before becoming light and variable
overnight at all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES