Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 281130 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA WIDE FOG IS BEING DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITY BOUNCES
AROUND A BIT. THE THICKEST FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS AT BRO
NEAR THE COAST...WHICH SHOWS A HALF MILE THOUGH IT HAS BEEN AT A
QUARTER OF A MILE. HRL IS AROUND A MILE RIGHT NOW BUT WAS ALSO AT
A QUARTER OF A MILE EARLIER. MFE IS ALSO AT AROUND A MILE BUT IS
BOUNCING TO THREE MILES. AT ANY RATE...ALL THREE SITES SHOW IFR OR
LESS...AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
MAY EVEN HANG ON IN SPOTS UNTIL MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
LOOKS FINE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A BIT MORE WIND TONIGHT WILL MODERATE FOG
POTENTIAL IN LIGHT OF UPWARD TRENDING DEW POINTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTH GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS PRESSURE ALSO FALLS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTH MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THE MOST PART. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR FOG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT ANY PERSISTENT
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE
THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. SLOWLY RISING AVERAGE DEW
POINT TEMPS WILL HELP PLACE A FLOOR ON LOW TEMPS...AND THEY WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY SAT MORNING DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.

A MODEL BLEND PRESERVED CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICE...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING GRADUALLY
ANYWAY...SO NOTHING OTHERWISE WAS REALLY EXPECTED. POP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...OR AT LEAST SILENT...WITH A COASTAL SHOWER OR
TWO ON SATURDAY THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STEP DOWN A FEW MPH ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE ABOUT 78 TO 82. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL VERY LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH POR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SO KEPT POPS OVER
LAND LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON MONDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BUT AS HAS BEEN NOTED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SO WOULD
NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN
COMING RUNS. WITH GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HOWEVER
DID KEEP A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

EXPECTING COASTAL TROUGHING TO SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
KEPT LOW END PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONLY REAL LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
SURFACE SO EVEN A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER...WHICH IS PRETTY
UNLIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

RIDGING SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
PM/THURSDAY AM RETURNING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
AMID STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. /68-JGG/

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT...
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND
ON THE GULF SATURDAY. AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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