Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 302318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
618 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...just a few remnant shra/tsra over the western third of
the forecast area as of this writing, however this activity looks
to cease very early on in the TAF period. For the remainder of the
period, forecast comes down to mainly a diurnal wind forecast as
rapidly diminishing moisture over deep south TX overnight tonight
and into tomorrow will inhibit sea breeze precipitation activity
Sunday. By 02Z this evening, southeast winds will generally fall
below 15 kts then diminish to less than 10 kts by 04Z or so. Winds
will pick back up above 12 kts around 15Z Sunday morning then
rise into the 15G25 category by 18Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

Long Term (Monday through Saturday): Mid level ridging will become
centered over East Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico through
much of the forecast period. High pressure and anticyclonic flow
will prevail over the north Gulf and the CWA. Subsidence will
result in hot weather with above average temperatures and general
rain limited conditions across the CWA through late in the week.
As such, look for plentiful sunshine and light to moderate
southeast winds.

A strong tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving rapidly west at 25 to 30 mph. By the middle of
the week, the disturbance should be in the western Caribbean,
where there may be a better chance of development. The GFS is the
more aggressive model in terms of developing something tropical in
the Bay of Campeche on Thursday and later, while the ECMWF and
Canadian are more conservative. In any case, deep South Texas
could potentially see some increase in tropical moisture by late
in the week. A model consensus begins to increase rain chances
around Thursday, slowly increasing the potential to around 40
percent through Friday and Saturday. This was not much different
from the inherited forecast and therefore felt comfortable
maintaining a persistent forecast pending later updates. Due to a
still meaningful geographic separation with the southwest Gulf,
most other longer term forecast fields were minimally impacted by
the somewhat more aggressive GFS solution.

Now through Sunday night...Light-to-moderate winds prevail
through Sunday morning across the coastal waters. Pressure
gradient tightens some during the day on Sunday due to surface
troughing in the Central Plains. This will freshen breezes on the
Laguna Madre and nearshore waters by mid-day with SCEC conditions
likely. Current 2-ft. seas offshore will increase to around 3 ft.
this evening and remain at similar levels through the short-term.

Monday through Wednesday...Mid level ridging across the area
and high pressure at the surface over the north Gulf will produce
light to moderate south southeast winds and low to moderate seas
through mid week.


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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