Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 121727
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1127 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE RETROGRADING WESTWARD
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ONGOING THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED IMPACT
SO FAR. SOME REDUCED VSBY AT BRO. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAWN.
VFR REST OF DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE BRIEF DENSE
EPISODE RIGHT AROUND DAWN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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