Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 240414
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1214 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure will
build across the region Monday. Low pressure will approach
from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday then slide south of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:14 AM Update...A cold front just crossed Presque Isle and is
continuing to push south. The front will end up along the
Downeast Coast by morning. There are some rain showers
associated with the front across northern and central Aroostook
County, and they could very briefly end as wet snow in the next
couple of hours. It is unlikely that the showers make it any
further south than about Houlton before drying up. Only minor
tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the midnight
observations and the latest radar and near term model trends.
Clouds are likely to clear behind the front Monday, with breezy
NW winds and highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure to our north will bring a mostly clear and cold night
Monday night with lows ranging from the low 20s north to upper 30s
Downeast. Clouds will then increase Tuesday night ahead of low
pressure lifting north from the Southeastern states. This low is a
large but weak system with deeply stacked low pressure, but no
strong cold intrusion for support. The low will weaken as it moves
north. Rain will move onto the Downeast coast on Tuesday then reach
northern areas Tuesday night. Rain will continue into Wednesday. The
rain will push east Wednesday afternoon as some mid level drying
lifts into our area ahead of a large frontal system approaching form
the Plains. Rain amounts will range from over an inch Downeast to a
quarter to a half inch across the north.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday night will remain mostly cloudy as low clouds linger
across the area and warmer air begins to move in aloft. Warmer air
will surge north across the area on Thursday. However, with a
southerly wind off the water, much of the warm air will likely
remain aloft with only moderate warming at the surface. Clouds will
give way to come breaks of sunshine Thursday afternoon. Thursday
night will be mild as a warm southerly breeze continues ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will move through Friday, possibly
with some showers. High pressure should then bring sunny and
seasonable weather for Saturday. A ridge will be building along the
east coast late in the weekend. Moisture topping the ridging and
tracking along a frontal boundary will then bring increasing clouds
on Sunday with a chance for some rain.
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across
northern areas into the early morning hours with a cold front
and showers. VFR conditions are then expected to develop again
late tonight and persist Monday. Generally expect VFR conditions
Bangor and Downeast overnight through Monday. However,
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions with any patchy fog are possible
late tonight in advance of a cold front. Low level wind shear is
also expected early this morning across the region in advance
of the cold front and has been added to the Taf forecasts.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday night into
Tuesday. Conditions may lower to MVFR in lower clouds Downeast
Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will then lower to IFR from south
to north in low clouds, fog and rain Tuesday night and remain
IFR on Wednesday. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR
Thursday morning as clouds lift, and possibly reach VFR Thursday
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels overnight through Monday. Visibilities could be
reduced in any patchy fog overnight into Monday morning in
advance of a cold front.
SHORT TERM: A SCA will be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday
for southerly winds up to 30 kt. Seas may reach 10 to 12 ft by
late Wednesday in response to the southerly winds. The wind
should diminish Wednesday night into Thursday allowing seas to