Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 230517
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1217 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over Maine late tonight. A weak area of
low pressure will cross the area Friday night. High pressure
will move back into the area Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:17 am update: Clear and cold overnight with light/calm wind.
Only some very minor tweaks to the overnight lows, mainly to
lower some more in the broad valleys of northwest Maine where
Estcourt Station is already down to -7F. Otherwise, no changes
at this time.

Previous Discussion... Strong high pressure will approach the
region from the west this evening then crest over the State late
tonight into Friday Morning. The high will then move to the
east. Have initialized temperature with Super Blend then lower
minimum temperature tonight several degrees in anticipation of
radiational cooling. Clouds will increase later Friday Morning
in the return flow behind the high. As low pressure moves to the
northeast of the Great Lakes, over-running precipitation will
break out across the region with most of the precipitation in
the form of snow during the day Friday. Have used a 50/50 blend
of the Nam and Gfs in the precipitation from thickness tool for
precipitation type. Snow amounts generated using the snow ratio
grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
System currently bringing ice to the southern Plains wl head
northeast tomorrow with 1040mb sfc high shifting east into the
maritimes. Pcpn wl be ongoing at the start of the short term Fri
evng. Wm temps wl be mvg in Fri night as low-lvl jet shifts thru CWA
btwn 00z and 06z. This wl play a big role in ptype drg the ovrngt
hrs. Expect that system wl be a quick-mvr as it zips thru in zonal
flow. Wm lyr looks to exist per NAM/GFS btwn 850 and 800mb and by
the time warm temps surge aloft pcpn wl be winding down shortly aft
midnight. May see enuf of a warm wedge mv into the Central Highlands
with sleet and possibly fzra bfr pcpn winds down. Should rmn all
snow drg the night ovr the St. John Vly with 1-2 inches of snow
expected by Sat mrng. Overall qpf amnts progged to range fm 0.15
inches ovr the far north to around 0.10 inches along the coast,
mainly btwn 00z-06z.

Frontal bndry mvs thru Sat mrng leading to clrg skies drg the aftn,
mainly acrs Downeast. Temps wl warm with maxes expected arnd 18z,
lwr 30s acrs the north and lwr 40s ovr Downeast.

Ridge axis wl bisect the area Sat night with clr temps and lgt winds
leading to good radn`l cooling with mins dropping to nr 0F Sun mrng.
High pressure wl build east on Sunday with another system mvg up fm
the Great Lks. Overrunning looks to begin Sun mrng and spread north
drg the day with lgt snow expected ovr most of the CWA in the aftn.
Exception lkly to be along the coast and especially on the outer
islands where rain can be expected aft noon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overrunning pcpn wl be ongoing acrs the entire area Sun night
with 980mb low ovr the srn tip of James Bay. Expect pcpn to
start off as snow acrs entire area bfr enuf warm air mvs in
along the coast to mix with and eventually chg to snow in the
aftn. Snow expected drg the ovrngt hrs except along the
immediate Downeast coast with light accums of snow likely into
Mon morning as low mvs south of Nova Scotia by 12z. Expect temps
to rmn abv normal thru the week. Only minor s/wvs ripple thru
aft system departs on Mon with nothing significant expected
until well aft the long term pd.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions tonight and and early Friday
then MVFR/IFR conditions later Friday Afternoon.

SHORT TERM: IFR expected Fri night in light snow across northern
terminals and mixed precipitation for BHB and BGR, possibly as
far north as HUL. Conds improve to VFR across the south in the
morning and Sat afternoon across the north remaining thru Sat
night. Expect restrictions to move in again late Sun morning,
MVFR and eventually IFR at BGR and BHB. Restrictions hold off
across the north until afternoon but expected to be IFR in -sn
into Mon morning. VFR then expected thru the end of the pd.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS for
sustained winds. Winds are expected to veer into the northeast
as high pressure passes to the north of the waters tonight. For
Waves: Currently spectral data from 44027 indicates the primary
wave system is in the form of southerly swell (2 feet/7 seconds)
with a secondary north to northeasterly wind wave which is
currently less than 1 foot. Later tonight the swell system will
continue to subside with northeasterly wind wave becoming the
primary wave group.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions expected Fri night and then briefly
dropping blo Sat aftn with marginal wind gusts possible. Wind
gust aoa SCA levels late Sat night across the outer waters.
Winds may approach gale force late Sun aftn and evening.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Hewitt
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Farrar
Marine...CB/Hewitt/Farrar



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