Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 071453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0950 AM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR
THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS INTO DOWN EAST
ZONES...BUT THE LINE HAS WEAKENED FROM THE STRENGTH EXHIBITED
EARLIER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL WITH WHITE-OUTS/WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS WILL SLOWLY FALL ALL DAY. IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE
ISLE AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND
SLOWLY FALL. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY FALL. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH
LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE
DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE FAR NW MAY DROP TO
20 BELOW OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD, BUT
DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY POTENT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH TWO SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE TWO SURFACE
LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, THE FIRST
ONE MONDAY PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SECOND ONE TUESDAY
BEING CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER, ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL EXIST FOR DECENT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING MAINLY
DOWNEAST, SPREADING NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PROLONGED
SNOW EVENT FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 8 INCHES DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY MIGRATES OVER OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY BE
AROUND ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND AROUND 10 DOWNEAST.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF VLIFR IN A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL EARLY THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI TO KFVE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 12-13Z THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS AROUND THE MVFR/IFR BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY DOWNEAST AND PROGRESS NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY DOWNEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY.  EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6
AM MON MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING, WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/MCW/FOISY
MARINE...CB/MCW/FOISY


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