Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 172210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A weak cold front will cross the region late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure from the Ohio
valley will cross the region later Wednesday...then settle
south of the region for the late week.


6:10 PM Update...A mid level deck of clouds around 5-7K ft agl
has spread across roughly the northern half of the CWA early
this evening. To the south of Greenville and Lincoln it remains
clear. Area radars showing a few returns across northern
Aroostook County, and an isolated shower could be reaching the
ground in a few spots in far western Aroostook County. The lower
levels of the atmosphere will continue to moisten this evening
as the first of two disturbances cross the region. The chance of
a few showers will increase later this evening and overnight as
a second weak disturbance/cold front works across the region.
Other than very minor adjustments to the hourly grids early this
evening (based on the latest observations and radar trends), no
significant changes are planned at this time.

Previous discussion...
Initial cld cvr ahd of the s/wv complex arriving from Cntrl Can
has eroded somewhat as it crossed over int NW ME from QB, but
now shows signs of holding ovc ovr NW ME durg the mid aftn.
This cld cvr will cont to cross the rest of Nrn ME by erly eve.
Latest model guidance is little further S with the lift and cld
cvr ovrngt for our FA than shown ystdy by the models for this
tm. Subsequently, we went with chc PoPs across the NW and far NE
and slgt chc across N Cntrl areas. Models indicate two axises
of moisture, the first for erly to mid eve which will serve to
moisten the mid to lower atmosphere with little if any
measurable rnfl with shwrs and then a second axis for the late
ovrngt hrs where the potential of lgt measurable rnfl with sct
shwrs will be higher.

All shwrs and most of the cld cvr will move E of the Rgn durg
the erly morn hrs allowing for some decoupling of winds and a
narrow window of radiational cooling for msly broad NW vly
lctns. Otherwise, ovrngt lows will be sig milder across the Rgn
due to cld cvr and a SW breeze, which will become NW by erly Wed
morn as a weak cold front crosses the Area behind the passage of
the upper s/wv-trof axis. Whats left of any cool air behind this
cold front will be quickly moderating during the day Wed as weak
cool llvl advcn becomes neutral to weak warm advcn by Wed aftn
under msly sunny skies, allowing aftn hi temps to reach a few
deg warmer than this current aftn with a Wrly breeze.


Warm front lifts north of the area Wednesday evening. Expect
mainly clear skies Wednesday night. Light south winds will keep
overnight lows milder than the previous few nights. Thursday is
mainly dry and unseasonably warm ahead of an approaching cold
front from Quebec. Southwest winds in advance of the approaching
front will result in afternoon high temperatures a good 10 to
15 degrees above normal for this time of year! A few showers
could make their way into the far northwest toward sunset.

The cold front will cross the region Thursday night, with a few
showers expected north of the Katahdin region. The best chance
for measurable will be across the far north and Saint John
Valley, where best dynamics will exist with the approaching
upper trof. Otherwise, it will remain dry down east.

Friday is shaping up as a dry in the wake of the cold front, as
high pressure builds toward the region from the west. Forecast
soundings indicating a rather deep mixed layer during the day
which will lead gusty northwest winds. Friday will be a cooler
day, with highs across the north ranging from the low to mid
50s and upper 50s to lower 60s central and down east.


Dry and unseasonably mild weather can be expected through the
weekend as high pressure builds toward the region. The high will
move east of the mid atlantic region later in the weekend with a
milder return flow setting up, with above normal temperatures
expected into the beginning of next week. The next chance for
any measurable rain will come late Monday and Tuesday as the
next trof approaches the region.


NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR across the TAF sites thru Wed with a pd
of MVFR clgs possible across Nrn TAF sites ovrngt associated
with sct rn shwrs, spcly KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR through the period outside of any brief MVFR
conditions across the northern terminals Thursday night in any


NEAR TERM: No chgs to the current SCA tm frame for our outer
MZs050-051, with winds/seas xpctd to reach SCA conditions by
mdngt with a short SW wind fetch then cont into Wed morn. Winds
and seas will be just below SCA thresholds ovr the inner
bay/harbor MZ052. All of our waters will then be below SCA as
winds turn offshore and diminish somewhat and wvs slowly
subside Thu aftn. Kept close to blended WW3/NWPS wv ht guidance
with primary wv pds ranging initially arnd 10 sec in swell this
eve to arnd 5 to 7 sec with a shorter wind fetch ovrngt into

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas could reach small craft advisory levels
Thursday and Thursday night in the southwest flow ahead of an
approaching cold front.


Month to date it has been the 3rd warmest October at Caribou,
and the 4th warmest at Bangor.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050-051.



Near Term...CB/VJN
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
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