Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 012159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ADDED AN HR OR TWO OF ENHANCED TSTM WORDING ERLY THIS EVE FOR THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVR SE ME...AFT WHICH...WE XPCT DISSIPATION OF AT
LEAST THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THESE SHWRS AS SBCAPE CURRENTLY NEAR
1000 J/KG OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HRLY CLD CVR AND FCST TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD TEMPS OVR THE THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS





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