Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 290518
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT IS NOW EXITING ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK
ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND EXITING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 10 TO 15 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING THEN
BEGIN MOVING TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE USED A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS AND BLENDED
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT HAVE
INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND THEN LOWERED
TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THE
PRIMARY LOW WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. BY EARLY SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. BY SUN MRNG THE
GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT TO ERN ME/WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE ECMWF
HAS THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MAINE. BY MID DAY THE GFS MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...MOVING MAINE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW OF MAINE OVER QUEBEC CITY.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEST OF QUEBEC CITY. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE
COLD FRONT INTO NW ME MON MRNG. THE GFS MOVES IT INTO THE SRN GULF
OF ME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF EXTENDS IT ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST FOR HRLY TEMP/DP...WND/POP/SKY. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. USED
HPCGRIDS FOR QPF...ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THE LAST 12HRS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IN ABOUT 6 HR
BEHIND IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT. MON EVNG THE GFS
SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO SRN MAINE...A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS
NRN MAINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA ACROSS QUEBEC TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MAINE COAST...AND MOVES IT OFF
SHORE EARLY TUES MRNG. BOTH MODELS SHOW OUR WEATHER DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG WED. WED MRNG BOTH MODELS
SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WRN ME. BOTH WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MAINE FRONT A SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY...THE
ECMWF SHOWING A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. FROM HERE THE MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER. THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER MAINE...WITH IT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH FRI EVNG. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PORTLAND AREA WED
EVNG...MOVING IT NE THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK THEN ON INTO THE
MARITIMES...MOVING THE COLD FRONT TROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY THURS
MRNG. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR SAT.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
SKY CON WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. MVFR BY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW...FALLING TO IFR IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BY MORNING. SKY CON AND VSBY WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN SCA FOR WNDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/NORTON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.