Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 291701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS LATEST
UPDATE. STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP ON RADAR JUST ON
GRAY`S SIDE OF THE CWA BORDER, SO HAVE LEFT OUR CURRENT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING ALONE. OTHERWISE, MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
SKY AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH/COASTAL
AREAS THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH
TODAY BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. WILL USE THE BIAS
CORRECT MOSG25 FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM POINT TO TSTM
POTENTIAL W/STORMS GOING SEVERE. SB/MU CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO 2000+ JOULES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
W/DECENT HEATING POTENTIAL ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
OTHER PARAMETERS POINTING TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM BY THE AFTERNOON W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6.
PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 1.5+ INCHES W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 65-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 30 KTS ALONG W/THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BELOW 0. THIS WOULD POINT TO STRONG WINDS
BEING A THREAT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
HAIL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO 13.5K FT, BUT SOME STRONGER CELLS HITTING ABOVE 45K FT COULD
ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND A K INDEX
OF 35+ PLUS LOADING OF MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS
W/THE SSW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. MULTICELLULAR STORMS W/LINE
SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN STRUCTURE FOR THIS EVENT.

ATTM, THE AREA MOST PRONE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AS SSE WINDS VEER TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, SSE
WIND HOLDING IN LONGER COULD KEEP LLVLS STABLE LONGER TO OFFSET
SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SPC EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO COVER
PENOBSCOT AND NORTH- CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. WILL ADD THE
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E AND THINGS STABILIZE.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME COOLING IN THE BLYR WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY, SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY W/SUNSHINE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SB CAPE OF 500+ JOULES
ACROSS THE N AND W AS WELL AS SOME MODEST SHEAR IN LLVLS. THE
LACKING FEATURES TO KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 800MBS AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE, WENT W/30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND CARRIED GENERAL TSTMS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIP FREE AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL A LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. ATTM, WILL GO W/GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS
SINCE WE ARE OUT IN DAY 4 AND 5. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL.

THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE E AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDING APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/MORE TSTMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THEN VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GO VFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AND IFR TO RETURN W/SHRA&TSRA
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE N OF KBHB W/STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/FOG
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR MAINLY FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY W/SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/11
SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.... LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL RESULT IN INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO
3-4 FEET/9-10 SECONDS LATER TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SE SWELL TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS STATED IN THE
NEAR TERM W/3-4 FT AND A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SSW LATER THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND W/A SOUTHERLY SWELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT


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