Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE QPF UPWARD THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT WAS
ALREADY FALLEN PER SOME REPORTS COMING IN. EASTPORT IS CLOSING IN
ON 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 48 HRS. RADAR SHOWED A LARGE
AREA NOT SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE
IS ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH HAS RECEIVED OVER 3.5
INCHES AND CLIMBING. FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY. NO REPORTS OF ANY SERIOUS
FLOODING JUST SOME PONDING ON ROADS AND STANDING WATER. SOME
SMALLER STREAMS ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL.

SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS
WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED W/SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS REMAINED UP AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT STARTING
TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.