Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
LOCAL WEBCAMS SHOW SOME VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MAINE, BUT TEXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PROHIBIT THE FOG
FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE STARTING TO POP
UP ACROSS PISCATAQUIS AND FAR WESTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THE
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED, SO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
MEASURABLE RAIN. THE SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD US OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THAN ON
SATURDAY. FOR HIGHS, WE ARE LOOKING AT MAINLY MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. PARTLY
CLOUDY SATURDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. WE
WENT A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS SHOW FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS, AS WHEN ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED MORE THAN A
COUPLE DAYS OUT, IT IS COMMON FOR MOS GUIDANCE TO TREND TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY. PLUS, MIXING DOWN THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT MODELS
ARE PROGGING SUGGESTS THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

SO HOW WARM ARE WE TALKING? WE ARE EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY, BUT NOT TERRIBLY SO.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND WE GET INTO MORE
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER, MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN
TO RUN AGREEMENT FALLS APART BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY
IF WE WILL STAY VERY WARM WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, OR IF A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL
COOL DOWN AND DRY OUT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.


SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL EASILY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HASTINGS/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/FOISY







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