Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 050212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT THEN SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW REACHES THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: ONLY SIG CHG WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT FOR THE OVRNGT HRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE STEADY RNFL
HAS ECLIPSED FROM THE GULF OF ME. OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR CHGS TO
FCST HRLY TEMPS ACROSS THE FA TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS AT 5 AM THU
BASED ON 8 AND 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THIS EVE.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY, IT WILL EJECT
A COUPLE OF UPPER SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVES
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS BY 8 PM. THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE DEFINITELY
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD.
THIS IS A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM, SO THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
EXIT TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE LOWER 40S
DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAIN
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER BETTER-DEFINED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION. AGAIN, MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. 24-HR RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE,
WHERE AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCH ARE LIKELY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
SEE A BIT MORE, PERHAPS UP TO 0.75 INCH. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, WITH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAYBE GETTING A
SPRINKLE OR TWO. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THEY
MAY EVEN SEE A PEAK OF SUN OR TWO. THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S, WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND
50 AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL BE SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM AND THE
GFS BRING THE LOW NEAR ENOUGH TO OUR REGION TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO MAINLY THE DOWNEAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN STRAYING INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. THE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK TRAILING SURFACE LOW HANGS BACK IN THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING WEAK RIDGING ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS TO BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF MOISTURE MAY STRAY INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND PULLS EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA MAY ALSO HELP TO PULL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY. SURFACE FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...WITH A SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NJ. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF NJ WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...EARLY SUN
MRNG...COMBINING ENERGY WITH A MUCH DEEPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
JAMES BAY REGION SUN MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON
TIMING...HOWEVER BOTH MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MAINE BY TUES
MRNG..WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE GFS. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH NRN MAINE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY OVER ERN QUEBEC THRU WED
MRNG...WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.
A NEW LOW OVER SRN ILL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE N
ATLANTIC ACROSS CAPE COD...THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MAINE...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE NRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREA A WEAK HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FIRST AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (22Z)
AND LATER AT THE NORTHERN SITES (05Z) RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING, WITH KBGR AND KBHB MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN DOWNEAST ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SOME SPOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



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