Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 301043
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST CLD CVR BASED ON LATEST SAT
IMG DEPICTION OF WHERE LOW CLDNSS AND FOG HAS PROGRESSED INTO OUR
FA AND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON 5-6 AM
OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: WE DO XPCT MORNG FOG OVER CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH A POSSIBLE XCPTN ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. OTHERWISE...SPC UPGRADED THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE FOR THE NW AND FAR NE TO A SLGT
RISK. WE ARE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH ML CAPES...WHICH MAX OUT
TO ABOUT 600 J/KG TO LCLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY PUTTING A BREAK
ON UPDRAFT SPEEDS EVEN OVR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE FAR NW.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS NOT TO FAR ALF...HEAVIER RNFL FROM ANY
TSTMS THAT DO GET GOING WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG THIS MOMENTUM TO THE
SFC IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE MAX CAPE AXIS
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 200J/KG AFT 00Z...SO WE DROP ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING AFT 00Z AND GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GENERAL STRATIFORM
RNFL AFT MDNGT WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING MORE OF AN ANA-FRONT
APPEARANCE. THE CNTR OF THE MAIN RNFL BAND WILL THEN TRANSITION
SWRD FROM NRN ME DURG THE OVRNGT HRS TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME BY
ERLY SUN MORN.

FCST AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT LOWER TO EVE A FEW MID 80S
FOR HI TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH
A SW SFC WIND...TO COOLER 70S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...TO
ONLY 60S ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE THE LLVL AIR
MASS IS MODIFIED BY WINDS ADVECTING OFF THE GULF OF ME. OVRNGT
LOWS WILL BE COOLER OVR THE N WHERE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE ALG
OR EVEN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EVENING.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAINY DAY FOR BANGOR
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DOWN EAST WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL INVERSION ARRIVES AND
DROPS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONT...THE LOWER
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO PERSIST. THIS WILL NET A RELATIVELY COOL...CLOUDY AND DRY
DAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO BANGOR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE COAST. THE FRONT
STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL MITIGATE THE
FROST RISK...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY WITH STEADIER OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST. A COOL EAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TOWARDS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE SPORADIC AND ALLOW HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MONDAY AND KEEPS THE PROLONGED OVERRUNNING EVENT
GOING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL ALSO TEND TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM IN THE AREA OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING TUESDAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN
THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE CONTINUING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE STEADIER RAINS WILL END.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST AND FOG AT MOST TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORN...WITH KBHB TAKING
LONGEST TO IMPROVE. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER NW TO SE TO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SHWRS AND GENERAL RNFL...WITH MORE MARINE FOG FOR
DOWNEAST SITES LOWERING CLGS/VSBYS TO LIFR.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF
HUL. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
IFR SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RETURNS
MONDAY AND WILL BE A PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO CHGS TO CURRENT SCA TO GO IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS AND SEAS...MARINE FOG REDUCING VSBYS BLO A MILE
ATTMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...SPCLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE 5 FOOT CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY
MORNING AND RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



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