Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 261952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN


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