Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 310242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10PM UPDATE: DID BUMP TEMPS DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS; CHANGES WERE MOSTLY THROUGH 06Z, BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT IN SOME SPOTS - MAINLY THE NRN CWA. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
POPS THROUGH MONDAY, AS 00Z NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE
IDEA OF ANY RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z, THEN EXITING TO THE
EAST BY AROUND 21Z OR PERHAPS A BIT SOONER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI


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