Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 010120
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
920 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move
east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:20 PM Update...Diurnal Cu has rapidly dissipated across the CWA
early this evening. There have been some hints at fog along the
parts of the coast based mainly on web cam images and the limited
coastal observations. Have added some patchy fog along the coast.
Otherwise, the ongoing forecast is in fine shape with only some
very minor tweaks based on the 9 pm observations.

Previous discussion...
Skies will clear this evening as a weak upper ridge builds in
from the west. Tonight will then be clear with light winds. Some
patchy fog is possible in a few low lying areas, especially where
the ground has been moistened from rain. Friday will then be sunny
and very warm as surface high pressure slides to our south and the
upper level ridge slowly moves to our east. A southerly breeze
will increase in the afternoon as a new trough of low pressure
approaches from the west and clouds will begin to increase from
the west very late in the afternoon. Some showers may stray into
far western areas at the end of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An occluded front will cross the region Friday night through early
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold front
will cross the region Saturday afternoon while an upper level low
approaches northwest areas. Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday
afternoon along with steepening mid level lapse rates which will
increase instability. An upper level disturbance rotating around
the upper low will cross the region during the afternoon along
with the surface cold front. Any diurnal heating will also
increase afternoon instability and thunderstorm potential. Strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms could occur across the region
Saturday afternoon into the evening. The upper low will then track
north of Maine Saturday night, keeping mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers across northern areas. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies Downeast Saturday night. The upper low will
exit across the maritimes Sunday, with a surface trof crossing
the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north
and mountains Sunday with isolated to scattered showers.
Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast Sunday.
Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels Saturday.
Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of right now, it looks like most of the area should have a
decent Independence Day on Monday as ridging builds in from the
west and heights rise. There are some hints of potential shower or
thunderstorm activity up north on a few recent model runs, but
kept POPs under 25 percent for the most part. While neither the
ECMWF or the GFS have any significant weather features affecting
the state through Day 8, they both take very different solutions.
The ECMWF is decidedly the `wetter` solution, with a couple
upper-level shortwaves pushing disturbances and showers through
the CWA. The GFS, on the other hand, is much drier courtesy of a
stronger and more durable upper ridge. For now, mostly kept POPs
under 25 or 30 percent until the models can hopefully come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
and Friday. The only possible exception may be some patchy fog in
some spots before dawn on Friday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the
region Friday night into early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. Occasional MVFR to LIFR conditions with showers
and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas Saturday night with
VFR conditions across the remainder of the forecast area.
Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through
Friday. A southerly breeze will increase Friday afternoon and a
few gusts may reach 15 to 20 kt late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be
reduced in fog Friday night into Saturday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still a chance
of showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Norcross


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