Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220906
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
406 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING, WHICH IS
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS TREND. RESIDUAL STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN
COOL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE BULK OF MODEL AND MOS DO
NOT EXCEED THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
CLOUDY AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY UPTICK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE SURFACE
RESPONSE FORM THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TODAYS RAIN. LOCALIZED FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF INDICATE A SWATH OF CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NAM DOES INDICATE DECENT DEEP BULK SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WHICH IS REASONABLE WITH THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE
CAPE/SHEAR CONSIDERATIONS, ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AT THE
VERY LEAST, CONVECTION IS A MUCH GREATER POSSIBILITY THAN IT WAS
THIS MORNING. POPS ARE MUCH BETTER LATER INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE FIRST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE SATURDAY PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EVEN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
PLAY A PART IN WHAT HAPPENS LATER SATURDAY. JUST AS IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO WEEKEND EVENTS, THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A
SUBSTANTIAL RECOVERY PERIOD DURING THE DAY. FORECASTING THAT
RECOVERY IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT, SO WILL KEEP THE BROAD BRUSH
CHANCES GOING. I WOULD LEAN TO PCPN ENDING EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH.
FORECASTING MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESIDUAL PCPN
AND STRATUS.

WITH RECENT RAINS ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND COULD REQUIRE HOISTING A FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THAT POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH EJECTING S/WV`S WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST AND WILL STILL BE IN A POSITION TO BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN MONDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING NEXT
WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A PERIODIC
CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE FIRST ROUND OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS ENTERING SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT
THIS TIME AND WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 6
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
CATEGORY AS WELL OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES RAIN
COOLED. AFTER THAT, RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ENDING AT LEAST
TERMPORARILLY AT GCK AND DDC, AND EVENTUALLY AT HAYS, LEAVING MVFR
STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO BE SLOWLY ERODED BY
THE STRONG LATE MAY INSOLATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  53  66  59 /  50  60  50  50
GCK  61  53  67  57 /  40  50  40  30
EHA  65  55  71  55 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  63  56  67  58 /  40  60  50  30
HYS  59  52  64  58 /  70  50  40  50
P28  58  55  65  62 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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