Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210747
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A WEAK VORTMAX IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTHWARD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AT DODGE CITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A 900MB FRONTOGENETICAL
ZONE SETS UP WITH THE COLD FRONT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM, WITH
SMALL HAIL, MAY ALSO DEVELOP, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF DODGE
CITY IN THE PRATT TO MEDICINE LODGE AREA, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND 40S DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. FORECAST CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR DODGE CITY AND NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD MAKE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S PER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND
SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIME FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

BY TUESDAY EVENING, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LOW. OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, THE GREAT LAKES
LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE REX PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AS
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KANSAS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES OVER A WEAK SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S LIKELY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION GETS
EJECTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS MAINLY IN THAT THE GFS
TENDS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM MODEL SOLUTIONS.
WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, WHERE THE BETTER 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE FOCUSED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
RESPITE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES, THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL
SHIFT AND INCREASE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 15-25KT AROUND AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  42  64  45 /  10  20  40  20
GCK  74  40  64  45 /  10  20  30  20
EHA  74  44  66  48 /  10  30  30  30
LBL  75  44  65  48 /  10  30  30  20
HYS  72  37  62  43 /  10  10  20  20
P28  75  45  64  47 /  10  30  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE


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