Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170640
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  67 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  65 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  93  64  92  66 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  67 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  69 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE



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