Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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966 FXUS63 KDDC 170329 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1029 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer weather can be expected for Friday through Monday. Temperatures could reach the upper 90s across far southwest Kansas Sunday. - The best chance of thunderstorms (10-40%) is Sunday afternoon and evening. These isolated to scattered storms could produce very large hail. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 As an upper trough progresses eastward away from Kansas, a pressure trough on the high plains will lead to south to southwest boundary layer winds with downslope warming. Highs will reach into the mid to upper 80s Friday. An upper level trough progressing across the northern plains will push a weak front into southwest Kansas Saturday before stalling. Afternoon highs will reach into the 80s to lower 90s, with the warmest readings ahead of the front along the Oklahoma state line. There is a small chance that post frontal upslope flow will lead to thunderstorms on the western high plains Saturday evening and these could drift into west central Kansas around Lakin and Scott City Saturday night. There is a very small chance that an isolated t-storm or two could form along the stalled front in southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Upper level troughing will develop across the western United States Sunday and approach the western high plains Monday. Sunday afternoon looks volatile in the exit region of a subtropical jet across central and southwest Kansas. Ahead of this feature, high dewpoints over the southern plains will advect northward into Kansas ahead of a dryline. The dry line will probably stretch from WaKeeney to Cimarron to Meade, but the location of the dry line could vary by 30-50 miles so that storms could form a little farther west. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will form by 4 to 5 pm and move eastward, with the most likely initiation zone from WaKeeney to Dodge City. Given the steep lapse rates and veering wind profile, very large to giant hail is possible with these storms. It is too early to ascertain the tornado potential since this is strongly dependent on the amount of low level shear; but one or two can`t be ruled out given the listed ingredients. Of course, any high-end severe weather will be localized so that the vast majority of locales will not be directly impacted. We are entering the peak of the central and southwest Kansas severe weather season so the occurrence of high-end severe weather shouldn`t be surprising, if it happens. Temperatures will be hot to the west of the dry line Sunday where downslope flow and very deep mixing will be present, with upper 90s possible. Cooler upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected in central Kansas in the absence of downslope flow and where rich moisture will prevent deep mixing. There are also severe storm chances across the plains Monday as the upper trough approaches. However, the low level moisture axis may shift a little to the east so that most of central and southwest Kansas may be west of any severe weather. Given the isolated to scattered nature of the precipitation Sunday and Monday, widespread beneficial rains are unlikely. The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means indicate average rains of .1" to .25" across central Kansas, with close to no precipitation across the southwest corner of Kansas. Of course, average precipitation doesn`t tell us much when we are dealing with localized thunderstorms that could dump an inch of rain in short order. However, this is still several days away and a lot could change with the timing and location. The passage of the upper level trough will also lead to a frontal passage Monday night, with cooler air advecting into southwest Kansas. High temperatures will fall into the 70s for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 There are also severe storm chances across the plains Monday as the upper trough approaches. However, the low level moisture axis may shift a little to the east so that most of central and southwest Kansas may be west of any severe weather. However, this is still several days away and a lot could change with the timing and location. The passage of the upper level trough will also lead to a frontal passage Monday night, with cooler air advecting into southwest Kansas. High temperatures will fall into the 70s for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Turner