Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211111
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET WITH H25 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS AROUND
40N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS IMPINGING ON THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A PORTION OF THE JET IS DIVING SOUTH
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO MEXICO TODAY BEFORE
TURNING EAST AND MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ALBERTA INTO
MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY, AND FALLING PRESSURES IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN KANSAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY NOON AND DISSIPATE IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER FROM THE SURFACE CYCLONE INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FLOWING ACROSS TEXAS OVER
THE WARM FRONT, AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS WAS
EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE
AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE MOIST TONGUE ADVANCES OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR COVERING
KANSAS. THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
THE HRRR SOLUTION OF KEEPING MOST OF THE STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
SEEMS REASONABLE AND LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS COOL, WHILE WARM AIR OVER THE STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH MIXING. AS SUCH, THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
ERODE AND PROBABLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN WESTERN KANSAS,
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY WILL REDUCE
INSOLATION A BIT. HIGHS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK PROBABLY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE LOWER 40S. THE MOIST LAYER APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE IS MINIMAL.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES, AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE LATE IN THE DAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE MOIST, COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FROM THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STARTING WITH SATURDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.  THERE WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH LOWER LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE BARBER COUNTY AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THERE STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL WARM UP ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL PROGGED 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +10C TO
+12C ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.  THEN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, BRINGING SOME LOWER TO MID CLOUDS WITH IT AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.  SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE, AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE HAYS AND LARNED AREAS, AND INTO THE MID 50S DOWN
SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART, AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A COOL DOWN, WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH
OF I-70; A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW FROM SCOTT CITY TO PRATT; AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO DODGE CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE.  ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
THANKSGIVING, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RATHER COLD.  MAX TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S IN THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS
AREAS, THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F DEGREES FROM LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S
DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  IN THE SNOW AREAS, ONLY
0.2 TO 0.3-INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS, AND THEN TAKE A PLUNGE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING, BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CIGS MAY REDUCE TO BELOW IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME JUST AFTER SUNRISE AT KDDC AND KHYS. MVFR CIGS AROUND OVC015
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND START TO BREAK UP BY
20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z TO 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  31  60  37 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  53  26  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  56  32  64  35 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  28  62  34 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  44  28  58  37 /   0   0  10  10
P28  44  34  60  44 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE


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