Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for synopsis, short term and long term discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern plains by
Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and briefrains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms
will be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing
during this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch


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