Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 012010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016
A stronger upper level shortwave trough will move from Four Corners
region and into western Kansas tonight. Another MCS (Mesoscale
Convective Complex) will likely move out of Colorado and and across
much of western Kansas tonight with several upper level waves.
Current models however forecast the best QPF and best heavy rain
chances north of Dodge City with the area from around Syracuse to
near Garden City and LaCrosse and north. Will graduate rainfall
chances with that in mind. Severe chances look minimal tonight with
maybe some small hail and strong winds to 40 to 50 mph. Very heavy
rainfall is expected wherever the MCS tracks with precipitable water
values from 1.5 to near 2 inches. Lows tonight will range in the mid
to upper 60s.
For Saturday, the strong shortwave will continue to move across
western Kansas with an attendant cold front. The cold front is
forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by mid afternoon
with the best chances for storms near and east of the front.
Strong to severe storms are possible mainly along and east of the
cold front with 2000 to 3000 J/kg CAPE and strong mid level
shear. Highs will be around 90 east of the front and low to mid
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016
For Saturday night, a cold front will continue to move east into
central Kansas with lingering strong to severe thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City into parts of south central Kansas.
Then for Sunday into next Friday, a mainly dry period is forecast
with a warming trend. Highs warm from the 80s Sunday and around 90
for Monday, the 4th of July, into the mid to upper 90s from
Tuesday into next Friday, as warmer upper level ridging builds
into the Central Plains. Overnight lows will gradually warm also
from 60s into the 70s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016
Expect VFR conditions for KDDC and KGCK with some IFR/MVFR in
thunderstorms at KHYS after 06Z. The main cluster of thunderstorms
is now forecast to be north of the Dodge City area overnight and
mainly up along the I-70 corridor.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 85 64 82 / 40 50 40 20
GCK 67 83 63 83 / 40 40 40 10
EHA 68 87 63 87 / 40 50 40 10
LBL 68 88 65 85 / 40 50 40 10
HYS 63 79 62 78 / 70 50 50 20
P28 69 91 69 84 / 30 60 70 30