Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291655
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The next couple of days will be highly influenced by Great Plains
surface high, with light easterly surface winds across the area. The
NAM hints at the possibility of a little radiation fog
development where the winds go light in central Kansas early this
morning, however this is probably not likely given the current
surface dew point spreads. A cooler airmass will also lead to
highs generally in the low to mid 70s over most of the area Today.
Upper 70`s is more possible on the higher terrain, say from
Johnson to Elkhart.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Friday will be generally a similar day to Today with pleasant 70s
and generally light winds from the southeast. Models warm
temperatures slightly into the mid and upper 70s, even to around
80 in the far west with a better surface pressure gradient and
nearly breezy south winds. The warming trend continues through
Saturday before the next chance for showers or thunderstorms
returns with the models indicate a weak impulse moving through the
flow with potential to help realize convective available
potential energy. A much stronger forcing lift mechanism returns
Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a deep Pacific trough with
embedded closed upper low swings through the northern High Plains.
Precipitation probabilities are best across central Kansas during
this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this period as high pressure
aloft and at the surface continue to dominate the central High
Plains. Southerly winds could become gusty to 15-20 knots especially
at Garden City Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  47  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  48  76  51 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  77  49  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  75  49  78  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  69  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard



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