Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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703
FXUS63 KDDC 281417
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
917 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Visibility has fallen to 1/4 mile in fog at places, including
here at Dodge City. Decided to not issue a dense fog advisory at
this point, as increasing rain should improve visibility. But will
monitor and cover on social media. Impressive widespread elevated
convection across the TX/OK panhandles is heading our way, with
lightning already just south of Elkhart. Have thunder mentioned in
the southern zones already this morning, and will need to monitor
for elevated hail potential across the southern zones through
this afternoon. 12z NAM continues to depict an intense mesoscale
heavy rain band across the western CWA this afternoon, and along
the US 283 corridor by 5-7 pm. Rainfall amounts near one inch are
expected from this line. Will also need to monitor burn scars this
afternoon, with heavy rainfall expected to lead to rapid runoff.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Ongoing fog will continue across much of western Kansas through
late morning. Along with the fog there may be some areas of
mist/drizzle but little or no accumulation is expected. The NAM,
GFS, and ECMWF were all in good agreement with moisture and lift
improving in the 700mb to 500mb level early this morning as an
upper low slowly moves east across New Mexico. The drier air below
the 700mb level will then begin to saturate and by late morning
rain showers will be likely west of Dodge City. This precipitation
will then increase in coverage as it expands eastwards towards
central Kansas late today. By evening widespread rain showers can
be expected. These showers will then continue during the overnight
as the upper low approaches the panhandle of Texas. The east
winds today will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range as an area
of low pressure at the surface deepens over eastern New Mexico.

Increasing low level moisture may help temperatures warm some
today under cloudy skies and developing widespread precipitation.
Will trend to undercut guidance for highs in all locations but
south central Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight ahead of a
400mb PV anomaly as it lifts northeast towards southwest Kansas.
Ahead of this wave improving 850mb warm air advection and 700mb to
500mb lapse rates will increase to around 7.5C/km. Periods of
steadier and heavier rainfall may also be possible with these
storms, especially near an area of enhancing 850mb frontogenesis
that is forecast to develop overnight across western Kansas. Even
taking into account this period of heavier rainfall over western
Kansas tonight it does not appear that water issues will be a
problem given how dry it has been.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

On Wednesday as the upper low moves out into the Texas Panhandle
there should still be some mid level instability under the upper
low so have kept a mention of thunder going through the day on
Wednesday as the ongoing occasional rain continues. The best
forcing during the day should stay near the 850mb frontogenetic
band and near the upper level deformation zone on the northwest
side of this upper level system as it lifts northeast. Little
diurnal change in temperatures again are expected given the
expected clouds and precipitation. Highs on Wednesday will likely
stay only in the 45 to 50 degree range across western Kansas. In
addition to these unseasonably cool temperatures the easterly
winds are expected to increase given the deepening surface low as
it crosses from the Panhandle of Texas to northwest Oklahoma.

Total rainfall from this event on average should easily range
between 1 and 2.5 but over 3 inches is not out of the question
given the enhanced forcing expected Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. At this time the exact location of where the steadier
and heavier rainfall will occur is still somewhat unclear so will
not get too detailed on where the highest amounts of rainfall will
occur.

From Wednesday night into early Thursday this upper low will open
up as it lifts northeast towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. As
this system moves east into eastern Kansas Wednesday night the
northeasterly winds will begin to usher in some cooler air into
southwest Kansas. The precipitation will be tapering off from
southwest to northeast during the overnight period and despite
some cooler air returning to southwest Kansas early Thursday the
models soundings continue to support only liquid precipitation
through early Thursday morning.

On Thursday clearing skies are expected and given the warming
forecast in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs Thursday should
climb easily into the 50s. A few 60s are not out of the question
in extreme southwest Kansas.

On Friday the next upper level system will begin to dig into the
southwestern United States. As it does an area of low pressure a
the surface will again develop over northeast New Mexico and a
southeasterly flow will develop over southwest Kansas. This will
once again draw more humid air back into western Kansas Friday
night into Saturday and set the stage for our next chance for
convection

Confidence is not high when it comes to precipitation chances
over the weekend given the differing solutions on track and timing
of this deepening low. Will therefore stay close to persistence
and follow the latest guidance from Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Poor flight conditions for the TAF pd. This is in association with morning
fg/br and then heavy rainfall that will move over the terminals later
today and continuing into tonight. LIFR/IFR conditions will dominate
much of the TAF pd. Winds will be SE/S 10-20 kt today and then eventually
become more easterly by tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  45  51  38 / 100  90  90  60
GCK  48  44  48  36 / 100  90  90  70
EHA  51  41  47  35 /  80  80  90  60
LBL  49  45  51  37 / 100  90  90  60
HYS  51  45  48  39 / 100  90  90  70
P28  59  52  60  43 /  70  90  80  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden



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