Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. STILL EXPECTING EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR KGCK/KDDC. WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GOING
FOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS
IF +TSRA DEVELOPS/MOVES RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL. WILL TREND ALL TO VFR
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SE/S 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  30  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  60  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  60  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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