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000
FXUS62 KFFC 231948
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RETURN TO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING POPS QUICKLY AFTER 03Z.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. AS OF
NOW...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. IN
GENERAL...EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS.

31

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKER UPPER
RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE. NO
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MIGHT
BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL FOR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

01/BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 12-16KT WITH GUSTS TO
22-26KT TODAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
/7-12KT/ OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  78  47  80 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         59  76  51  78 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  72  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    57  76  45  80 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  82  54  83 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     58  76  49  77 /  20   0   0   0
MACON           60  82  48  82 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            57  76  46  81 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  77  45  79 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         66  86  56  83 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31