Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291136
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
736 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017



.UPDATE...
Showers spreading across western GA this morning will continue to
migrate to the north and east. So have ramped up pops this
morning with the highest potential for showers and thunderstorms
still set for this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
As the surface high continues to move out to sea, a series of mid-
level impulses will be moving across the region through the short
term. This will yield waves of showers and thunderstorms moving from
southwest to northeast on Thursday and eventually west to east by
Friday. To time these waves of moisture at this point would be a
challenge, but there is a general consensus that we will see more
activity Thursday afternoon and then again early Friday morning into
the afternoon which correspond well with the best mid-level vort.
max and isentropic upglide. Based on some early estimates of
precipitation amount through this period, the highest values are
seen north of I-20, especially across the higher terrain.
Precipitation in this area is around 1.5 to 2 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. South of I-20 is under an inch or so.

With marginal instability and very low bulk shear, we do not
anticipate widespread severe weather across the region.  However,
there is the potential for some localized flooding to occur. With
hours of Pwats values over 2", Mean RH above 90% and mean Warm Cloud
depth around 13kft, am a bit concerned about the potential for
flooding. Not to mention training shower/thunderstorms possible
based on MBE velocities, especially Friday afternoon.

Temperatures will be below normal through the period, especially the
afternoon highs given cloud and precipitation coverage. Winds will
be SE to start and eventually veer to the SW by Friday.

26

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
Long term begins with an short wave pulling into the Carolinas and
a weak cold front moving southward into the Tennessee Valley. By
the weekend a fast westerly flow sets up over the the CWA. This
will slow down the front as it enters the CWA and eventually
stalling over the CWA. There will also be weak short waves moving
along the front. All this together will keep an active pattern
over the CWA with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will
be near climo through the long term.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Some MVFR ceilings will overspread the region through the
remainder of the morning. Showers will continue to move north and
east into the area with the best chance of thunderstorms during
the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR during the
evening/overnight hours. Some residual showers after sunset and
another surge of moisture possible Friday morning. East/southeast
winds, around 8-10 kts during the day. Winds should veer to the
southwest by mid-day Friday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on lower ceiling.
High confidence on all other elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  69  82  70 /  50  50  70  60
Atlanta         82  70  82  71 /  60  60  70  50
Blairsville     78  65  76  66 /  40  60  80  50
Cartersville    82  70  81  71 /  60  60  70  40
Columbus        83  72  87  73 /  90  50  60  30
Gainesville     81  68  79  70 /  50  60  80  60
Macon           84  71  86  72 /  70  60  60  40
Rome            82  70  81  71 /  60  60  70  40
Peachtree City  82  70  83  71 /  70  60  70  40
Vidalia         86  73  88  74 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26



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