Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 301945
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF ATL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDS MORNING BRINGING SCT IFR TO LOW
MVFR. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  70  88 /  30  50  50  70
ATLANTA         70  86  70  85 /  40  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        71  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  30  60  60  70
MACON           70  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  50  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW


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