Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 011838
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31





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