Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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818
FXUS62 KFFC 051121
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
621 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016


.UPDATE...
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Area of light rain/drizzle continues across central and parts of
north GA...mainly south of a Carrollton to Atlanta to Athens line.
The northern edge will shift southward a little more early this
morning and there could be a period of time where no precip falls
this morning. Central GA...on the other hand...should see light
rain/drizzle as precip continues upstream and therefore have kept
cat pops for central GA this morning. Next round of rain will move
into the CWA this afternoon and tonight. With the wedge still in
place...will keep thunder out...at least through early this evening.

As the upper system begins fills a bit and begins moving east...the
associated surface low will deepen and move into northern
AL/southern TN by Tuesday morning. This will lift the warm front up
to the fall line but with precip continuing to fall into the
wedge...north GA should remain in the cool easterly flow. South of
the fall line instability will increase bringing the chance of
tstorms late this evening and into Tuesday morning.

This system will move rapidly out of the CWA by 18Z Tuesday with
only a few lingering showers across the mountains by Tuesday
afternoon.

Due to the wedge holding today...temperatures should remain cool.
Guidance temps appear too warm and have back off by several degrees.
With the cold front lagging behind the deep moisture...there could
be some sunshine Tuesday afternoon...enough to warm temps into the
60s/70s across much of the area.

Another 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall through 36 hours...but this
should not be enough to cause any flooding concerns and will
therefore not issue any flood watches.

17

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Medium-range models remain in general agreement concerning the large
scale pattern through the extended forecast period...however there
continues to be noticeable differences between the GFS and ECMWF
concerning the timing and depth of the smaller scale details. With
this in mind I have continued the trend of generally going with a
blend through the period. Still looking at a major cold intrusion
behind the Wednesday/Thursday system. Precipitation is expected to be
over by the time the better cold advection overtakes the region and
no wintry precipitation is included in the forecast for the mid/late
week system at this time. Both the GFS and ECMWF are a bit slower
with the onset of precipitation associated with the weekend system.
Blended POPs do not move into the northwest until late Sunday
allowing for more of a warm up. Latest temperature forecasts
Sunday night into Monday point to a liquid event at this time.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR/LIFR will continue through the forecast. Currently in a lull
in the rain although patches of drizzle will continue this
morning. Rain will move back into the forecast area by 18Z and
continue into tonight. Isolated tsra are possible late tonight in
the CSG/MCN areas. Winds will remain easterly 10 kts or less
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  50  58  44 / 100 100 100  10
Atlanta         55  51  66  45 / 100 100 100  10
Blairsville     58  45  56  40 / 100 100 100  10
Cartersville    56  52  65  42 / 100 100 100  10
Columbus        59  56  69  48 / 100 100  80  10
Gainesville     54  49  56  44 / 100 100 100  10
Macon           58  55  72  47 / 100 100 100  10
Rome            54  52  63  41 / 100 100 100  10
Peachtree City  56  55  69  44 / 100 100 100  10
Vidalia         60  60  76  51 /  90 100  80  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17



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