Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 301142
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK FRONT VICINITY OF NORTH GA TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE BEST POPS FOR
NORTH WITH LOWER POPS CENTRAL. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY SEEMS NOT AS OBVIOUS...HOWEVER THE MODELS
HINT AT A WAVE CROSSING THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO CHANCE POPS
LOOK OKAY FOR SUNDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY. MAV/MET TEMPS LOOK OKAY BUT
CIRRUS FROM LOWER MS VALLEY STORMS COULD AFFECT THE MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

41


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT ACTIVE PATTERN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN
OVER THE STATE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT CHANCE TO GOOD
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IMPACT THE REGION. INITIALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LIFT TO THE NE...LEAVING A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULSES
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BY MID WEEK...A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW
WILL DROP INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE
STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. FOR
NOW...POPS TAPER OFF QUICKLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC. UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE POSITION OF BEST POPS AND THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY
STILL EXIST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS RECEIVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE...KEEPING
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MOTHERS DAY
WEEKEND.


31


&&

.CLIMATE...
AT THIS TIME NO CLIMATE RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED
OR BROKEN...BUT FOR REFERENCE THE RECORD TABLE IS INCLUDED BELOW.

RECORDS FOR 04-30...TODAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     52 1999     68 1970     37 2008
                            1949
   KATL      89 1987     56 1999     68 1970     40 1969
                1942                                1908
   KMCN      94 2012     52 1999     68 1984     40 2008
                                                    1992
   KCSG      94 2012     60 1999     69 1970     42 2008




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

SHOULD BE VFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY 3 TO 5SM IN FOG.
SCT CUMULUS 035 TO 045 DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z TODAY WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS. CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AT MOST ANY TIME TODAY
BUT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BEST CHANCES
WILL PROBABLY BE NORTH OF KATL NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER AT
LEAST A PROB30 IS REASONABLE FOR THE TAFS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 14Z...WITH SOME SWING TO SOUTHWEST
POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON THUNDER POTENTIAL AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40
ATLANTA         85  66  81  65 /  40  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     81  61  78  59 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  81  63 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        88  67  84  66 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     83  64  80  63 /  40  50  50  40
MACON           89  66  86  65 /  20  30  40  40
ROME            84  64  81  62 /  40  50  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  85  64  82  62 /  30  30  50  40
VIDALIA         90  69  86  68 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...41



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