Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250820
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
A line of strong showers and very isolated thunderstorms is moving
east across AL/TN and should push into the NW GA corner by 09z-10z.
This frontal system is progressing as forecast and will bring precip
to the state over the next few days. This front is expected to move
into N GA this morning and stall somewhere just north of the ATL
area. This will keep the majority of the state in continued Moist
southerly flow out ahead of this system. Instabilities do increase
a bit ahead of this front mainly across central and southern
portions of the state but still only looking at general thunder
today...No severe. This front will sink slowly south into southern
GA Monday as strong high pressure builds into the region behind this
frontal system. while this system is parked over the state today and
part of Monday we will be looking at a 2 day QPF total of a half to
1 inch of precip area wide. Temps are still expected to stay above
seasonal norms with highs in the 60s to 80s and lows in the 50s to
60s.

01

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
For the most part, Rain chances will have ended to start the long
term except for some small chances for light showers over the far
se cwa S and E of MCN Monday Evening.

A lull in the rain chances is still expected Tuesday as strong
surface high pressure moves to the eastern seaboard.

Once again, the GFS and European models are very consistent with
deep moisture returning with overrunning southerly flow kicking in
Tuesday night and for the most part, continuing Wednesday as a warm
front moves N over the area. The GFS and the European models are
now much closer with the timing of the next cold front forecast
to move across the area on Thursday with rain chances diminishing
late Thursday or Thursday evening. The best instability is forecast
late Wednesday night and Thursday associated with the cold front and
there will be a chances for thunderstorms. There is also 30-40 kts
of low level shear forecast and we will be monitoring the potential
for severe thunderstorms with future forecasts.

N GA will once again be the target of the heaviest rainfall potential
with estimated amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible for a large portion
of n GA  Wednesday and Thursday. We will be monitoring conditions for
any flooding potential with future forecasts.

Dry weather is expected Friday into Sunday as high pressure moves
to the area.

Temperatures will continue above normal this long term period until
Friday when temperatures will return closer to normal.

BDL

&&


CLIMATE...


Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967
                            1967
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR ceilings right now but they are falling and will continue as
frontal system brings rain and isolated thunderstorms to the area.
Mainly MVFR ceilings expected through the day as the front is
expected to stall somewhere just N of the ATL area then slowly
sink south through Mon. This will also keep the winds out of the
SW today then turn to the NW over night and NE by daybreak Monday.
Wind speeds should be generally 12kt or less through the period.
May see some gust in and around any stronger storms.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence Medium to High on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  56  65  48 /  70 100  90  10
Atlanta         68  55  65  49 /  70 100  90   5
Blairsville     63  50  62  39 /  90  90  80   5
Cartersville    66  52  65  45 /  90 100  80   5
Columbus        75  60  69  52 /  70 100  90  10
Gainesville     67  53  64  46 /  70 100  90   5
Macon           77  60  68  51 /  70  80  90  10
Rome            65  52  66  44 /  90  90  70   5
Peachtree City  70  56  66  48 /  70 100  90   5
Vidalia         83  63  74  54 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01



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