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000
FXUS62 KFFC 231539
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. HOURLY FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AND HAVE MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN GA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. SOME
LINGERING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA TODAY BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...NORTH GA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 06Z. OTHERWISE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE STABLE
AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY TODAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS WERE CLOSE
AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AND FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS N AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT
THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
COMPROMISE. NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL
FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR TODAY...AFTER SOME MVFR AND IFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF BY
14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15KT AFTER WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  58  80  46 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         84  59  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     79  53  73  40 /  20  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    85  56  77  44 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        87  63  84  55 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     83  58  79  48 /  20  10   0   0
MACON           88  59  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            85  56  78  46 /  10  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  84  56  78  46 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         88  65  87  56 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31