Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 240000 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS PERSISTS DURING THE SHORT TERM
ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT BROADER AND WEAKER. ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
KEEP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
VARYING AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. FOR TONIGHT...THINK SOME SCATTERING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. MORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW DRYING
ALOFT...BUT WITH SOME AMOUNT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN SKY COVER FORECAST. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR THE EAST CENTRAL
ZONES MAINLY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER THE BULK
OF ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST. EASTERLY FLOW IS
STABLE SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS RUNNING A
BIT BELOW NORMAL MOST PLACES.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEGINS WITH PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENING UP
INTO A BROAD TROUGH BUT REMAINING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
EFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. MOST OF THE TIME IN
SUCH PATTERNS...THE SHOWERS REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODELS
SUGGEST AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND LIMIT AREAL
COVERAGE TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT IN GENERAL.

INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POP AXIS BECOMING
ELONGATED MORE WEST TO EAST BUT REMAINING LARGELY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS ACTS TO BRING A DEEP AND VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY SPREADING UP AND OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXCELLENT ADIABATIC
OMEGA PROFILE DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH JUST TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. DESPITE THE DECENT AGREEMENT...FORECAST
REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SETUP OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WITHIN A LARGE UPPER HIGH. MOVEMENT OF LOW COULD REALLY BE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS CHANGE
SEVERAL TIMES ON THIS SOLUTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT VARIOUS POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD
EVENTUALLY YIELD TO THE SAME RESULTS WHICH WILL BE A GOOD
ISENTROPIC PROFILE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES). HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD WIND UP BEING
MON INTO TUE IF YOU BELIEVE THE EURO. CLEARING CONDITIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND USED A BCCONSALL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

DEESE

01


&&


.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST
AT 6-10KT THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT AFTER WITH GUSTS
16-20KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  77  60  81 /   5   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  77  61  80 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  76  52  79 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    56  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        61  80  63  82 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     57  76  61  80 /   5   0   5   5
MACON           58  78  61  82 /   5   5   5  10
ROME            54  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  79  58  81 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         62  80  64  83 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41







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