Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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998
FXUS62 KFFC 250800
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Upper ridge centered mainly over the MS valley will continue to
dominate the forecast area today. A weak front across central GA
combined with a weak short wave should help to focus afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Afternoon heating with capes ranging from 1500
to 2500 could produce a few thunderstorms with strong winds and large
hail mainly for the area south of Columbus to Macon. Have kept slight
chance pops into the overnight hours. For Sunday...upper ridge stays
centered to our west but surface high pressure becomes centered off
the mid Atlantic coast. This puts GA in a broad low level easterly
flow. This should help moderate max temperatures for Sunday down a
few degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for today with expected
heat index values of 105 to around 107 for a portion of east and
central GA.

41


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

No real substantive changes to the extended forecast trends with
this cycle. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region through
the weekend...but as we get into the beginning of the long term
forecast period at the start of the work-week that pattern is
already transitioning into a northwest flow pattern...and eventually
evolves into broad upper troughing across the eastern U.S. by the
end of the week. As is typical for the season...best short wave
energy remains well north of the state but weaker upper forcing and
the presence of a persistent surface trough/front across the
forecast area should keep at least scattered...diurnally favored...
convection in the forecast through the period. Instability is not
expected to be extreme...and shear is limited as well...limiting the
potential for severe weather. However...with the potential for
strong thermodynamic influences each day with surface heating...a
few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out...especially
if any weak or moderate short wave interaction coincides with
maximum daily heating.

20


&&


AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR ceilings and visibility through the period. Hi-res models are
developing convection during peak heating this afternoon...but
for now, will keep any prob30s to the south of KATL. Low end gusts
around 15kt possible tomorrow also.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          99  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Atlanta         97  75  91  73 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     91  67  86  68 /  20  20  30  30
Cartersville    96  72  92  71 /  20  20  30  30
Columbus        98  76  95  74 /  30  30  40  30
Gainesville     96  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Macon          100  75  94  73 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            97  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30
Peachtree City  97  72  91  71 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         99  75  94  73 /  30  40  30  30

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Monroe...Montgomery...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...
Sumter...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41



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