Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 051121
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
621 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Area of light rain/drizzle continues across central and parts of
north GA...mainly south of a Carrollton to Atlanta to Athens line.
The northern edge will shift southward a little more early this
morning and there could be a period of time where no precip falls
this morning. Central GA...on the other hand...should see light
rain/drizzle as precip continues upstream and therefore have kept
cat pops for central GA this morning. Next round of rain will move
into the CWA this afternoon and tonight. With the wedge still in
place...will keep thunder out...at least through early this evening.
As the upper system begins fills a bit and begins moving east...the
associated surface low will deepen and move into northern
AL/southern TN by Tuesday morning. This will lift the warm front up
to the fall line but with precip continuing to fall into the
wedge...north GA should remain in the cool easterly flow. South of
the fall line instability will increase bringing the chance of
tstorms late this evening and into Tuesday morning.
This system will move rapidly out of the CWA by 18Z Tuesday with
only a few lingering showers across the mountains by Tuesday
Due to the wedge holding today...temperatures should remain cool.
Guidance temps appear too warm and have back off by several degrees.
With the cold front lagging behind the deep moisture...there could
be some sunshine Tuesday afternoon...enough to warm temps into the
60s/70s across much of the area.
Another 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall through 36 hours...but this
should not be enough to cause any flooding concerns and will
therefore not issue any flood watches.
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Medium-range models remain in general agreement concerning the large
scale pattern through the extended forecast period...however there
continues to be noticeable differences between the GFS and ECMWF
concerning the timing and depth of the smaller scale details. With
this in mind I have continued the trend of generally going with a
blend through the period. Still looking at a major cold intrusion
behind the Wednesday/Thursday system. Precipitation is expected to be
over by the time the better cold advection overtakes the region and
no wintry precipitation is included in the forecast for the mid/late
week system at this time. Both the GFS and ECMWF are a bit slower
with the onset of precipitation associated with the weekend system.
Blended POPs do not move into the northwest until late Sunday
allowing for more of a warm up. Latest temperature forecasts
Sunday night into Monday point to a liquid event at this time.
IFR/LIFR will continue through the forecast. Currently in a lull
in the rain although patches of drizzle will continue this
morning. Rain will move back into the forecast area by 18Z and
continue into tonight. Isolated tsra are possible late tonight in
the CSG/MCN areas. Winds will remain easterly 10 kts or less
through the forecast.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 54 50 58 44 / 100 100 100 10
Atlanta 55 51 66 45 / 100 100 100 10
Blairsville 58 45 56 40 / 100 100 100 10
Cartersville 56 52 65 42 / 100 100 100 10
Columbus 59 56 69 48 / 100 100 80 10
Gainesville 54 49 56 44 / 100 100 100 10
Macon 58 55 72 47 / 100 100 100 10
Rome 54 52 63 41 / 100 100 100 10
Peachtree City 56 55 69 44 / 100 100 100 10
Vidalia 60 60 76 51 / 90 100 80 10