Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1000 AM MST SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect thunderstorms with cooler than normal
daytime temperatures to continue this weekend. A drying and warming
trend may start early next week, before increasing moisture and
storm chances return mid week.

.DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure is centered over far
northwestern Arizona this morning. It has been rather active to
east through south of the low center with less activity in the
center of the low. Have made some adjustments to the forecast for
today: decreased temperatures across the board, adjusted pops, and
cloud cover. Update already sent.



We have issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of Yavapai and Coconino
counties through 7 pm mst tonight.

There is a well defined upper level shortwave moving through srn
Nevada this morning. Lift from the this wave has produced a line of
strong tstorms moving eastward through Yavapai and srn Coconino
counties at 430 am. Measured rainfall has been as high as 0.50 inch
in 30 minutes, with stronger echoes not passing over a gage. CG
lightning count has been around 500 strikes per hour with this line.
Storms are redeveloping behind the line along the AZ CA NV border
now. Progs move the upper wave slowly across nrn AZ this afternoon,
bringing additional dynamic lift. We expected basins in the watch
area to see several rounds of thunderstorms through today, with
heavy rain and hail.

Didn`t have time to look beyond sunset Sunday, the previous
discussion covering next week follows - Drier and warmer weather is
forecast Monday into Tuesday with the best chance of storms near the
AZ/NM line. Later Tuesday into Thursday, a trough over the west
coast could pull deeper moisture back north into the area increasing
our thunderstorm chances.


.AVIATION...For the 18z package...Expect scattered to numerous
SHRA/TSRA today. LCL TERRN OBSCD in low CIGS. MVFR/IFR conditions
are likely under the stronger storms. After 18Z, good chances for
SHRA/TSRA spread eastward to include all of northern Arizona, with
at least isolated storms forecast through the evening and overnight
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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