Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1003 AM MST Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A vigorous weather system will brush Arizona today.
Winds will increase again this morning, especially from Winslow
eastward as a cold front moves across northern Arizona.
Associated with the front there is a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Arizona. Generally fair weather
will return for Wednesday and Thursday before colder and wetter
system impacts the northland Friday and Saturday.


Updated forecast to better account for the eastward moving cloud
shield associated with the low pressure trough. Otherwise no
significant changes to the forecast as winds begin to develop and
move across the area again today.


.PREV DISCUSSION /314 AM MST/...A vigorous shortwave trough and
associated cold front will sweep across northern Arizona today.
There is a bit more moisture/instability than expected with this
system so there is a good chance of showers and even isolated
thunderstorms for the area along and east of a Page to Winslow
line where the coldest air aloft and best dynamics for upward
motion exists. The Chuska mountains will see showers much of the
day with even snow at the very highest elevations. In addition,
strong winds will be associated with the frontal passage. The
strongest winds will be from about Winslow east and southeastward
where wind gusts approaching 50 mph will be possible. Another
area where isolated winds gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected
is from the Mogollon Rim southward where funneling around terrain
features is likely to produce localized strong wind gusts.
Otherwise, high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than on Monday
under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

For Wednesday and Thursday...Daytime temperatures will warm a bit
as a milder air mass moves across the state. Breezy afternoon
conditions will continue with winds shifting to a more
northwesterly direction. Another passing shortwave trough will
produce just a slight chance of showers across the four corners
region Wednesday evening.

On Friday and Saturday...The GFS and European model forecasts
continue to show a stronger trough and cold front. High
temperatures are expected to dip from 10 to 20 degrees below
normal with the potential for showers and even some snow in the
mountains. The latest models runs have backed of the precipitation
but much cooler and windy conditions look nearly certain for this
period. Continue to stay tuned as the precipitation potential
comes more into focus.

Fair weather returns for Sunday and early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect extensive cloudiness
today with a chance of showers east of a KPGA-KINW-KSOW line.
Chances for precipitation dwindle after 03Z Wednesday. West winds
will increase through the afternoon, becoming 15-25KTS with gusts
of 30-40KTS at most locations. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...West winds will be quite gusty again today but
minimum humidities are not expected to drop below critical values
for a lengthy duration. A chance for showers, especially in
northeast Arizona, will also develop today.

Thursday through Saturday...Unsettled conditions with breezy west
winds each day. Increasing chance of showers and cooler for Friday
and Saturday.


this evening FOR AZZ004>012-015-018-037>040.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ013-014-016-017.




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