Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032310
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 PM MST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE
EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE COCONINO PLATEAU...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA...AND THE EASTERN RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS. WITH
FLOW ALOFT BEING SO LIGHT FROM THE EAST...STORM MOTIONS ARE SLOW
WHICH WILL MAKE IT A SLOW PROCESS FOR STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND COULD ALSO LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS GREATER. THUS FAR...WE
HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH ACTIVITY OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY AS MORNING
RAINFALL LEFT BEHIND A STABLE LAYER THAT HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION. EXPECT CHANCES OF SEEING SOME ACTIVITY THERE TO
INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS HEATING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIKELY LEFT
OVER FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LAST NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SONORA/SOUTHEAST AZ MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT.
THIS MAY KEEP RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT TO SOME EXTENT.
WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND MENTIONED THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHTNING THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

AS STORM MOTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SPEEDS INCREASE ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT THE FLOODING THREAT TO DECREASE ACCORDINGLY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME NOTABLE DRYING ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN AVIATION THREATS. THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH AN
EMPHASIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. CORRESPONDING HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...AT
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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