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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241040
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST U.S THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE VERY NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR MEMORIAL DAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEPTH/TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS
TUE/WED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DAYS ARE NEAR 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...BREEZY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP 16Z-18Z AND CONTINUE TO 01-03Z
SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH ONLY MODERATE OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES AND ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG WITH VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS MAY APPROACH
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND APPROACHES ARIZONA ON TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF