Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231633

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 AM MST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow along a cold front will push eastward
through eastern Arizona this morning. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop behind the front through early
evening, with snow levels around 6000 feet. Dry conditions are
expected Friday. An additional low pressure systems are possible
across the Southwest region Saturday and again early next week.


.UPDATE...The frontal band is now pushing through Navajo, Apache,
and Gila Counties. Additional showers are already developing
behind the front across Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Some of
these showers could drop an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow
above around 6000 feet elevations. Heavier showers could locally
lower the snow level to elevations of 5000 feet with little
accumulation at that level. Will make a few minor adjustments to
the forecast to account for timing of steady precip vs showers.


.PREV DISCUSSION /423 AM MST/...A low pressure system was located
just west of the area this morning. Deep moisture was pulled
northward ahead of the system yesterday evening, resulting in a
line of showers and thunderstorms through mid evening. By late
evening, snow levels had lowered to 6000 to 6500 feet in a very
persistent precipitation band that set up over Yavapai and
Coconino counties including Flagstaff and Williams. Heavy snow
continued in these areas from late evening through this morning,
and is just beginning to decrease slightly in intensity over the
past hour. Expect this band to move into eastern Arizona after 7-8
AM. By later this afternoon, convective showers are likely to
redevelop over much of northern Arizona with snow levels around
6000 feet. Temperatures will be above freezing so most locations
will see only light additional accumulation. A few areas that
experience persistent showers could see some snow accumulations of
an inch or two this afternoon and early evening.

The system moves east of the state tonight with brief ridging and
much warmer temperatures for Friday. Then next trough will affect
the area Saturday into Saturday night, bringing a chance of
precipitation mainly to areas from Flagstaff northward. At this
point, amounts appear light with snow levels 7000 to 8000 feet.
Fair and warmer conditions return Sunday into early Monday, then
more unsettled weather looks to return to the region with cooler
and showery weather possible later Monday through at least


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...A cold front will bring SHRA/SHSN
to areas east of a Four Corners - Winslow (KINW) - Payson (KPAN)
line through 19Z with periods of IFR conditions and snow levels
lowering to 6000 ft MSL. Elsewhere expect areas of MVFR CIGS through
the day with convective showers redeveloping this afternoon through
evening. Heavier showers will produce IFR conditions. Snow levels
will remain 6000-6500 ft MSL through the day. Skies clearing W to E
aft 03Z, primarily VFR returning aft 06Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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