Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
318 AM MST Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the southwest through
mid-week with above average high temperatures. A slightly cooler
airmass will move into the region Friday and over the weekend
behind a trough of low pressure that is expected to pass to the


.DISCUSSION...Above normal temperatures and locally gusty
northeast to east winds will be the main story through mid week.
Favored areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim will be most
likely to experience these gusty winds. High temperatures will be
roughly 10 degrees above normal, but are expected to fall just shy
of daily records for this period.

Latest model guidance is coming into better agreement later in the
week with a trough diving southeastward toward the region. The
ECMWF has trended towards both the GFS and GEM with tracking the
trough farther to the northeast with less of an impact on northern
Arizona. This feature will most likely result in a modest increase
in west winds Thursday and a slight cool down Friday into the
weekend as winds shift back northerly. At this time, there are no
signs of any precipitation falling over the area through the end of
the month.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hrs. North to northeast winds are forecast across the majority of
northern Arizona, with some light afternoon breezes. However,
favored locations along and south of the Mogollon Rim will
experience speeds near 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt at times,
especially after 06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions
will persist Monday and Tuesday as a strong ridge of high pressure
builds in to the region. East to northeast winds will continue in
most areas, gusty at times along and south of the Mogollon Rim.

Wednesday through Friday...Above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected Wednesday with light winds. An approaching
dry cold front will bring increasing west winds Thursday, then
cooler temperatures and a shift to northerly winds Friday.





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