Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022146
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUSTAIN LOW
GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER
AND NEAR THE EASTERN RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.
WHILE THERE IS MUCH VARIANCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY DECREASING THE
STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE WILL BE SENSED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...AND
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY
ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AND SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OR DEEP OUTFLOW FROM STORM COMPLEXES OVER THE VALLEY
COULD QUICKLY BRING GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM PAYSON-WINSLOW-KAYENTA. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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