Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 060412
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST THU MAR 05 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY KEEPING COLD
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WELL NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS. WARMING AIR UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE COLD AIR AND THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF ARIZONA. THIS
RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK PACIFIC STORMS FROM MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE UNDER THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE AND MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. HOWEVER THE WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE POSE NO
REAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND
OVER THE LONGER TERM EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH NO
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS PATTERN AND THIS GIVES US A HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS MILD
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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