Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222216
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
316 PM MST MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS ACROSS NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
ACROSS ARIZONA. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EAST OF A
FOUR CORNERS TO WINSLOW LINE...DIMINISHING AFT 01Z. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WHITE MTNS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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