Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311634
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
934 AM MST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVER
THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FGZ SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT FAVORING
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS DEVELOPING AND
DRIVING STORMS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS BUT OVERALL
EXPECT AN UPTICK OVER YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NEW
MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE POSITION OF
THE HIGH/LOW COUPLET WILL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND PRODUCE A MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IN FACT...MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF ORGANIZED UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT RARE FOR
THE MONSOON PERIOD. WHILE THE MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TOO
HIGH A GENERALLY DAMP FORECAST MAY BE RIGHT ON IF THE ORGANIZED
UPWARD MOTION MATERIALIZES (ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY). MAKE SURE AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THE
WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. MVFR VSBY AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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