Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221709

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditons this week. Breezy
to windy conditions will return to the region Thursday and Friday.


.DISCUSSION... Forecast from previous discussion is still expected
to prevail through the period. In the morning update, made slight
changes to sky cover to adjust down for current conditions.
Through the period, expect warm dry conditions with temperatures
generally at or around 5-10 degrees above normal. Temperatures
cool toward the end of the period around 5-10 degrees with
increasing winds.


.PREV DISCUSSION /410 AM MST/...A weak s/wv passed through
southern Utah late Sunday afternoon, bringing a few high-based
showers to our northern zones. This s/wv is now over south-
central Colorado and will brush a weak trough across the White
Mtns today. There may be enough mid-level cooling with this
feature to squeeze out another shower or two over zone 17, that
is about it.

Elsewhere, dry northerly flow on the eastern side of a high
amplitude Pacific ridge will dominate the weather today. The ridge
axis then moves across the state by Tuesday and Wednesday. This
means a few warm and sunny days are on tap, with light winds.

The ridge begins to break down later this week and into next
weekend, with 5-10 degrees of cooling and a significant increase
in southwesterly winds. At this time, the area looks to remain
dry under this pattern.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions to continue over
the next 24 hrs with NW winds 10-20 kts during the daytime hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers are possible in the
White Mountains this afternoon. Wetting rains are not expected.
Otherwise, expect dry and warm weather through Tuesday with typical
afternoon breezes.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect warm and dry conditions Wednesday.
Southwesterly winds will gradually increase Thursday and Friday with
relatively cooler temperatures.






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