406
FXUS65 KFGZ 161140
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will stick
around today, mostly across eastern Arizona. Warmer and drier
weather looks to return Friday through the weekend, with winds
gradually increasing each afternoon. Unsettled weather likely to
return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The trough that brought scattered showers and
thunderstorms yesterday will continue to push eastward into New
Mexico today. As this disturbance progresses to Isolated SHRA with
brief MVFR remain possible across northern AZ overnight. Light
winds overnight become W to NW at 10-20 kts on Thursday. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA east of a KSOW - KRQE line Thursday afternoon with
isolated SHRA/TSRA as far west as KFLG. Very brief MVFR
conditions and wind gusts up to 40 kts possible in/near shower
activity.
the east, precipitation chances will become more focused along
the Mogollon Rim and the AZ/NM border. The HREF most unstable CAPE
solution shows sufficient instability this afternoon, so isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated later today too. Similar to
yesterday, overall rainfall amounts are fairly minimal, but we
cannot rule out the possibility of some storms producing brief
heavy rainfall.

An area of high pressure will begin to build over Arizona on
Friday, bringing warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
Afternoon highs will quickly climb 2-10 degrees above normal
through the weekend. This ridge will gradually be weakened by a
trough pushing down from the Northwest. As this low swings
southward, pressure gradients will tighten across northern
Arizona. As a result, wind speeds will steadily increase through
the weekend gusting near 30 mph by Sunday. Winds should remain
below any advisory/warning thresholds over the weekend. Chances
for near-critical fire weather conditions will likely become
elevated with lower RH values and increased winds. We`ll continue
to monitor the need for any fire weather related products.

Model guidance continues to suggest a low developing off the
California Coast that will move inland at the beginning of next
week. Confidence is low on any details regarding the track and
timing, so we`ll share more information as we progress towards
next week. For now, gusty winds look to be the main impact with
this system, but there is still time to hash out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 16/12Z through Friday 17/12Z...SFC winds become
W to NW at 10-20 kts after 16Z...then light after 02Z. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA east of a KSOW - KRQE line today with isolated
SHRA/TSRA as far west as KFLG. Very brief MVFR conditions and wind
gusts up to 40 kts possible in/near shower activity.

OUTLOOK...Friday 17/12Z through Sunday 19/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected with SW to W winds 10-20 kts each afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...Showers and thunderstorms
will mostly be along and south of a Flagstaff to Window Rock line
today. Winds will become west to northwest today. Erratic outflow
winds up to 40 mph possible in or near showers and storms. Dry
conditions return on Friday. South to west winds 10-20 mph with
afternoon RH values between 10-20%.

Saturday through Monday...Warmer and drier weather conditions
through the weekend. Southwest to west winds 15-25 mph gusting 30-35
mph, increasing to 35-40 mph on Monday. Afternoon RH values will
range between 5-15%, increasing to 10-20% on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff