Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 301209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
709 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Another in a string of early mornings whereas western convective
cirrus blow off has thwarted any significant areawide lowering of
flight category ceilings/visbies. There are a few rural hubs
(CXO, LBX) where thinner cirrus have allowed the lowering of
visbies. After a couple of days of no thunder...this may be the
day that many more interior hubs experience a brief late afternoon
thunderstorm. An unstable and increasingly more moist regional air
mass will likely pop thunder once surface temperatures exceed 86
F. Far interior convection may occur once again late this
afternoon into the evening but this TAF advertises less cirrus
than in previous mornings...thus anticipating higher chances for
MVFR-IFR decks and MVFR lowering to (L)IFR visbies. 31



Large storm complex extending from central to north central Texas is
edging to the east and southeast early this morning. At this time, do
not think this system`s showers and thunderstorms will make it into
Southeast Texas. Low rain chances are in the area`s forecast today to
cover any boundary development from this system, and for any daytime
heat induced storms. Will start to raise area rain chances just a little
bit on Tuesday as weak mid/upper disturbances move across the area.
Better rain chances enter the picture beginning on Wednesday and persist
through the end of the week and on into the weekend as the mid/upper
level low currently in Southern California works its way into Texas
and stalls. Look for a series of slow moving disturbances associated
with this low to move across the state and help to generate periods
of showers and thunderstorms. Some strong/severe storms could accompany
this activity, but of more concern due to our area`s recent heavy rainfall
is the rising precipitable water values in combination with increasingly
favorable upper level wind patterns will have the potential to produce
periods of locally heavy rainfall. Any of this rain falling on already
very wet/saturated grounds and elevated rivers/bayous will lead to an
increasing threat for flooding.  42

A tranquil Memorial Day across the local bay and gulf waters as the
weather is currently being influenced by southeastern U.S.-based
high pressure. Light onshore winds over low seas and slightly choppy
bay waters. Lowering western plains and lower Rio Grande Valley
pressures will tighten the mid-week pressure gradient enough to
slightly strengthen southerlies. Increasing chances that a late week
developing Texas coastal bend trough of low pressure will pick up
rain and storm chances. The forecast passage of this surface low
over the northwestern Gulf will create moderate chances for more
continuous showers and storms next weekend. During this late week
period...general east-southeast winds/seas will be relatively
weak/low but higher storm chances will generate a greater threat for
localized strong winds and more violent seas within the vicinity of
any thunderstorm. 31


College Station (CLL)      87  70  85  71  83 /  20  10  30  30  70
Houston (IAH)              87  71  88  72  86 /  20  10  20  10  40
Galveston (GLS)            83  76  85  77  84 /  10  10  10  10  20




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