Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 012014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE IS
PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT MIX OUT THIS
MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10 INCHES. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE OVER THE SW GULF
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC HAS JUST UPGRADED THIS SYSTEM TO TD
#5. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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