Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 281740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Daytime heating will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms
but the air mass has begun to dry a little bit. Coverage is less
than the past few days. Light east winds will persist for the
afternoon and winds will decouple overnight. Could get some
showers near the coast late tonight and IFR/LIFR cigs possible
over the northern TAF sites late tonight. Convective temps are
warmer on Thursday so showers will likely develop later in the day
except near the immediate coast. 43


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

Morning soundings and PW imagery supportive of a tight moisture
gradient along the upper TX coast. Have trimmed PoPs a little up
north, but kept chance to likely rain chances across coastal
counties, and perhaps a tier inland. That being said convective
temps will be met area-wide so still some chances of development
across sern TX- just higher near the Gulf. All in all, current
forecast in pretty good shape.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

MARINE... Mid level circulation helping to focus scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this
morning. As the coastal trough meanders around and in from the
coast expect the storms to continue develop and spread inland.
During the afternoon hours may see a lull over the coastal waters
before it fires up again tonight. Winds this morning 15 to 20
knots and will keep a SCEC going through 7 am then let it come
down only to come back up in the eastern waters late this
afternoon as gradient tightens back up. Elevated tide levels will
continue with the persistent coastal troughing. Beach hazard
statement extended through 7 pm but will likely need extending
through tonight with increase in winds. Rip current stronger today
and probably begin to see some overwash on 87 near High Island
during the high tide this afternoon with these same conditions
tonight and Thursday. For what it is worth the ARW core and TT-WRF
both focus showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this
afternoon/tonight with the potential for stronger winds. Will
need to keep an eye on future runs for some consistency and if so
may warrant bumping up winds 5-15 knots. 45

Aviation... Tough forecast today. VLIFR at UTS this morning with
BKN001 and showers streaming into the the coastal areas. How far
the showers make it inland this morning is a tough call. Expecting
as the nocturnal elevated winds relax may see a break focusing
showers closer to the coast then jumping inland with a little
heating. GFS soundings look to be too dry in the LL at 12z so have
trended toward NMM/NAM/HRRR solutions which show an increase in
coverage around 15z for SGR/LVJ/HOU/LBX areas then very slowly
expanding northward in the afternoon and clearing near the coast.
Overnight expect to see SHRA redevelop over the waters and spread
inland along the length of the coast around 06-08z. 45


College Station (CLL)      74  91  77  92  77 /  10  30  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)              75  89  78  90  78 /  30  60  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  87  82  88  81 /  50  70  30  40  10


     through Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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