Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 282312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

VFR with light winds. Outside chance exists that a line of TS
(currently NW-NE of DHT) threatens PVW, CDS and LBB after
midnight. Models generally favor this complex of TS moving SSE
thru the Panhandle before decaying toward midnight, so have kept
thunder mention at bay with this TAF cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

Late afternoon and early evening precip chances look to be confined
to areas just south of the forecast area along and south of an
outflow boundary laid out by last evening`s storms. Focus for later
tonight shifts as expected to a convective complex taking shape
across western Nebraska and northwest Kansas this afternoon.
Movement of this complex will be to the south-southeast and the
western end of it may clip the far northeast corner of the forecast
area late tonight. However, models are consistently keeping precip
just east of the area. Will keep a slight chance mention in,
tapering PoPs back slightly from previous forecast. Focus then
shifts to Friday afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary for the
aforementioned complex is progged to be draped across the southern
Panhandle, although there could be some play in where that feature
ends up. Certainly worth a slight chance mention across the northern
row of counties. Otherwise, temperatures near persistence and MOS
looks fine.

Northwest flow aloft on northeast side of upper ridge will continue
to be active for a short while longer as thunderstorms grow upscale
from the central High Plains and move S/SE into the Southern Plains.
Thus blended pops of 20-30 pct across the northern half of the area
late Friday seem justified, even into early Sat morning with some
weak upper support enhanced by outflow.

Beyond Friday night/Sat morning...things get more difficult for
convection to develop as heights slowly rise. Difficult to see
reason for anything by very low pops through midweek as GFS has
ridge axis from southwest TX extending NE through NE Missouri.
Monsoon flow to become more active midweek although don`t think
much will make it into even our western counties. Not much change
from previous forecast in terms of temps...with highs fairly
persistent...from the mid 90s SW Panhandle to around 102 Rolling
Plains. James


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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