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000
FXUS64 KLUB 081522
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
922 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. THEREFORE...MIXING AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/

AVIATION...
THIS MORNING...MVFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECKS ENSUED AT KCDS AND KLBB
RESPECTIVELY. WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING AT KLBB AND
EARLY AFTN AT KCDS. FURTHERMORE...VISIBILITIES HAVE BECOME
RESTRICTED TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB /PS6M AT KCDS/...BUT CAN
DETERIORATE FURTHER BEFORE SUNRISE AT BOTH TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN...AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DIMINISHES.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...VFR FOG AND MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL
RETURN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WILL
CONTINUE ITS EWRD TREK TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SUCH...BEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THOUGH SRLY SFC WINDS
AND SLIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE  RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND
OF -FZDZ AND FLURRIES THAT AFFECTED SOME LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK LAST
NIGHT. EARLIER REPORTS OF CAR ACCIDENTS ACROSS WRN ZONES WERE
COURTESY OF THIS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. THIS BAND HAS MOVED OVER WFO
LUBBOCK A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WITH NIL PRECIP...AND PER RADAR
ANALYSIS...WAS RATHER HARD TO DISTINGUISH GIVEN VERY LIGHT ECHO
RETURNS...WAS PROBABLY EAST OF LUBBOCK COUNTY. A FEW CALLS TO
EMERGENCY PERSONNEL ACROSS ERN LUBBOCK COUNTY AND POINTS EAST HAVE
ALSO RESULTED IN NIL PRECIP REPORTS...WHICH COULD BE A RESULT OF
DEBILITATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ON THE CAPROCK AND PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AS TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2 DEGREES C OR
LESS. IN FACT KLBB AND KPVW WERE REPORTING VFR AND MVFR FOG
RESPECTIVELY...AND A PHONE CALL TO FLOYDADA EMERGENCY PERSONNEL
CONFIRMED FOGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
INCREASING...VISIBILITIES COULD DETERIORATE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS MORNING. IF
TRAVELING EARLY THIS MORNING...TAKE EXTRA TIME AND CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR BLACK ICE.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PROMOTE SFC LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTN. SRLY SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER FURTHER TO THE SW
BY THIS AFTN...WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NWRN ZONES COINCIDING WITH THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
COLD AIR WILL BE TEMPORARILY DISLODGE AND REPLACED WITH TEMPS
FINALLY ABOVE FREEZING /UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S/ WITH CLEARING
SKIES...ALBEIT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. THIS EVENING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER /ALTHOUGH DRY/ COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THUS ANOTHER SHOT
OF CAA AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL THEREFORE PLUMMET INTO
THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
COLD AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND WHAT WILL BE THE LATEST
DUMP OF COLD AIR DOWN THE PLAINS. QUITE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD WHILE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS FROM THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTN OR NIGHT. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS IN REGARD TO QPF WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN RATHER DRY. MAY YET NEED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PRECIP IN
THE FCST...BUT FAVORING DRIER RUNS ATTM WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
AGAIN THIS MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN AN DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WEEK TROUGHS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM AS WELL
AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY. WEDNESDAYS
FRONT LOOKING A BIT COLDER IN THE 00Z RUNS AND HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
DOWN AS A RESULT. MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEEK SHOULD KEEP COLDEST
AIR LOCKED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  13  26  16  41 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         43  13  26  15  41 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     42  13  27  16  40 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     43  16  29  18  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       44  16  29  18  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   45  17  29  21  40 /   0   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    44  17  30  21  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     42  16  28  19  37 /  10   0   0  10   0
SPUR          41  16  29  19  39 /  10   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     41  16  29  20  37 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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