Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 230739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
239 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017


The upper level low dominating much of the CONUS weather pattern has
moved only slightly southward into central MN this morning. Cyclonic
flow was driving a cold front southward through the Rockies and
Central Plains, and this feature was just entering the northern TX
Panhandle as of this writing. Convection was firing along the
frontal boundary with light shower activity behind the front as
well. Moving out of the forecast area was an area of showers and
thunderstorms that had formed along a shortwave this afternoon.
While much of the forecast area stayed dry, Aspermont was a big
winner with approximately 1.5" of rain.

The cold front will be moving through the forecast area this
morning, bringing yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms to
those who missed out yesterday. Short-range models are indicating
coverage will be better than yesterday, but as dry air works in
behind the front later today, the tap will quickly turn off for
several days. Enjoy the cool, somewhat damp day, because as the edge
of a ridge starts to build in tomorrow, temperatures will rise
quickly. By Thursday, WSW flow at the surface and aloft will usher
in a large amount of hot dry air, causing temperatures to soar to
the upper 90s for all but the southwestern TX Panhandle, which won`t
be too far behind. A few triple degree highs will most likely be see
Thursday as well as Friday. A new Canadian low will attempt to push
a cold front through on Saturday, but models are in great
disagreement on the strength of this initial push, so have opted to
stay with the warmer highs for Saturday. Better agreement lies in
the cooler air making it through on Sunday, though that only brings
us back to seasonal norms thanks to the extreme heat of the previous
days. The position of the low for the weekend will be approximately
the same as the one currently creating our weather, however, this
time, rain chances from this system are looking a bit suspect.
Copious amounts of dry air will have been advected into the region
Thursday through Saturday, leaving little recovery time for moisture
return. It is possible as moisture returns early next week and the
low pushes into the Great Lakes region, we could see precipitation
chances increase aided by northwest flow aloft. This is quite far
out, so we`ll have to see if the models keep any continuity with
this feature.




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