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000
FXUS64 KLUB 240422
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN EITHER TAF. ALSO OF QUESTION IS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL WITH SOME
EXPECTATION OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING LATE TONIGHT. WILL FOLLOW MODEL
LEAD FAVORING KCDS ATTM. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENING...00Z MODEL RUN OFFERING LITTLE GUIDANCE. SOME EXPECTATION
THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH DETAILS RELATED TO SFC
BOUNDARIES AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PARTICULAR STILL
FAR FROM KNOW. WILL FAVOR KLBB OVER KCDS ATTM WITH PROB30 MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED MOST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS A
MOIST 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ RIDES OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THIS WAA REGIME WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
EXCEPT NEAR WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ONE STORM THAT
DID IMPACT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT DROPPED AN IMPRESSIVE 0.80 INCH IN
A SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TRY
AND SNEAK IN FROM EASTERN NM...THOUGH IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
BREACHING THE STATE LINE ATTM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.

LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  86  60  81  60 /  30  50  30  20  20
TULIA         63  84  62  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  85  63  81  62 /  30  50  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  86  64  81  61 /  30  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  84  65  82  63 /  40  50  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  86  64  81  61 /  20  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  86  65  82  62 /  30  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  66  83  66 /  30  30  30  20  20
SPUR          67  82  66  82  64 /  50  50  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  84  67  83  68 /  50  30  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07