133
FXUS64 KMEG 171150
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
650 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A showery pattern with a few thunderstorms will continue today and
Saturday along with mild temperatures. A warming trend and dry
conditions will return Sunday and continue until Midweek. Highs
Monday and Tuesday could approach 90 degrees. Our next chance of
showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday as another cold
front approaches from the west. Highs after midweek are expected
to be in the low to middle 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An occluded front is currently located along a line from Union
City, TN to Forest City Arkansas, into northeast Louisiana. This
feature should push across the remainder of the Midsouth by
Sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler today featuring highs in the
middle 70s across most of the area.

We will remain in southwest flow with an active 100-110kt
subtropical jet stretching from south Texas, across the ArkLaTex,
into Middle Tennessee. This pattern will not change much until a
trough shifts across the Mississippi River Valley midday Saturday.
As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the Midsouth. The threat of strong or severe storms should
be minimal today and tomorrow although frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall is common with any thunderstorms this time
of year. Rainfall totals have trended a bit lower. Portions of
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northern portions of
west Tennessee may see slightly over an inch of rain with one
quarter to one half on an inch expected across the remainder of
the Midsouth. A flood watch remains in effect for northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northern portions of west
Tennessee through 7PM this evening.

After the trough shifts east of the Tennessee River, Sunday into
early next week, should be dry with warming temperatures. A fairly
high amplitude ridge will shift across the region Sunday and
Monday with its axis shifting across the middle Mississippi River
Valley Monday night. This feature should keep us dry. However,
the NBM, along with other numerical guidance, has backed off a
bit on the widespread 90 degree temperatures early next week. As a
result, we lowered temperatures back into the upper 80s across
most of the area. A few 90 degree readings still look possible in
north Mississippi.

By midweek, a broad trough developing over the western half of
the CONUS will put us back under weak southwest flow. High
temperatures will cool back into the low to middle 80s with a
return of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Confidence
in the forecast Wednesday through Friday is low due to
significant differences in guidance. However, the overall trend
certainly looks cooler and wetter for the 2nd half of the work
week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Pretty grim aviation weather this TAF period. A few lingering
showers and BR remain along several shortwaves through the
morning. A brief lowering to IFR conditions looks to occur as this
lingering precipitation moves through. Ceilings are then expected
to lift to MVFR/VFR through the day. Vicinity showers are
expected to return at MEM around 02Z before fog and reduced vsbys
move over MEM. Calm winds and decent radiational cooling will
result in fog this evening through around sunrise tomorrow at
JBR/MKL/TUP. Fog looks to become more widespread around 08Z where
vsbys look to drop to 2sm across all terminals. Ceilings are also
expected to lower to IFR conditions with the movement of this fog
tomorrow morning.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ009-018.

MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH