831
FXUS64 KMEG 200441
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1141 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A very busy night across the Central Plains this evening as a pair
of severe MCSs continue to accelerate eastward across eastern
Kansas and central Oklahoma at this hour. Downstream of this
system and over the Lower Mississippi Valley, cloud-free and
nearly calm conditions are ongoing due to an expansive area of
surface high pressure in place. Temperatures are in the 70s
areawide with numerous airports reporting calm winds. Dewpoint
temperatures remain steady in the mid 60s, so low temperatures
will likely bottom out in the mid to upper 60s by tomorrow
morning. Some light patchy fog is possible across the much of the
Mid-South, especially near lakes and river valleys.

No big changes were made to the forecast.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm and dry weather will continue across the Mid-South through
Tuesday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A ridge of high pressure is
expected to weaken across the Lower Mississippi Valley by mid-
week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday
afternoon and continue into the Memorial Day weekend as a cold
front weakens and stalls out across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Surface and upper-level ridging in place across the Lower
Mississippi Valley has resulted in a dry day with mostly sunny
skies, and temperatures in the middle 80s across many locations.
Strong to severe thunderstorm potential for mid to late week is
the primary concern in this afternoon`s forecast issuance.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will bring a
continuation of dry weather to the Mid-South through Tuesday. 925
mb temperatures are expected to rise to between 22-24C,
translating to afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. NBM
guidance has been slightly too cool and blended high temperatures
towards the NBM 50th/75th percentiles.

Mid-range operational and ensemble model runs indicate the upper-
level ridge will begin to weaken across the Lower Mississippi
Valley late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Upstream convection may
begin to drop into the Mid-South towards sunrise Wednesday.
However, confidence isn`t particularly high with a strong capping
inversion expected to be initially in place across the area. This
capping inversion is expected to weaken later Wednesday afternoon
as modest mid-level height falls begin to spread into the region.

Surface-based CAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk
Shear values in excess of 35 kts, moderately-steep to steep mid-
level lapse rates, and favorable upper-level divergence produced
by the right entrance region of a 130 kt 250 mb upper-level jet
streak may be sufficient for the development of organized severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary severe weather
threat. This convective threat will continue to be monitored in
subsequent model runs. Stay tuned...

Long range ensemble model trends show mid to upper level flow
becoming nearly zonal across the Mid-South late next week into the
Memorial Day weekend. This will result in continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during peak
heating.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as a midlevel ridge
builds in. Light winds overnight should pick up to 6-9kts from
the south/southeast by mid morning Monday.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CAD