612
FXUS64 KMEG 191548
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1048 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

12Z upper-air analysis this morning shows an elongated ridge axis
stretching from New England back through the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, 15Z surface analysis shows a 1017 mb ridge of high
pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is
resulting in mostly sunny skies and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT
in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the Mid-South. 925 mb
temperatures should warm to around 21-22C, translating to
afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80s. Will make some
adjustments to this afternoon`s high temperature. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast is in great shape.

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in affect for portions of West
Tennessee, Northeast Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel through
the early morning hours resulting in to potential dangerous driving
conditions. High pressure will settle across the Mid-South later
this morning leading to benign weather with increasing temperatures
into the upper 80s to lower 90s to begin our workweek. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase again early Wednesday
and will extend into Memorial Day weekend as a unsettled weather
pattern develops across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Current temperatures at this hour are in the lower 60s to lower 70s
with mostly calm winds at the surface, and clear skies areawide.
Excess moisture from yesterday afternoon`s convection combined with
clear skies and calm winds has lead to a pretty foggy morning. Many
sites along the Tennessee River, extending west are reporting 1/4 SM
visibilities leading to a need for a Dense Fog Advisory over
portions of West Tennessee, Northeast Mississippi, and the Missouri
Bootheel. Fog should begin to lift shortly after sunrise as winds
begin to increase across the region.

Surface and upper level ridging continue to build in across the Mid-
South, and will eventually settle later this morning. As a result,
pretty benign weather through will prevail through for the beginning
of the workweek. South winds and the aforementioned ridge will usher
in warm, dry from the southwest leading to a pretty warm start to
the beginning of the week with many areas across the region seeing
near 90 degree temperatures. Come late Tuesday, an upper level low
looks to form over the Upper Great Lakes region while a surface low
looks to form over Missouri with an attached cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms will begin to form along this cold front early
Wednesday morning. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
continues to grow for Wednesday as time draws closer. Long range
models are hinting at a 50-70% chance of 1000 J/kg of surface based
CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear in areas along and west of the
Mississippi River with the movement of convection Wednesday. Though
confidence remains on the lower end for our area as greater
potential for severe weather remains displaced to our northwest over
the Middle Mississippi Valley.

By Friday morning, the aforementioned cold front looks to move north
as a warm front giving lift to continued showers and thunderstorms.
We are keeping 30-60% chance PoPs in the forecast through Friday.
Another cold front looks to dip down from the Middle Mississippi
Valley Saturday morning leading to continued shower and thunderstorm
chances (25-40%) through Memorial Day Weekend.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Fog at MKL should diminish within the next 2 hours, but may
redevelop again tonight in northeast Mississippi and near the
Tennessee River in west Tennessee. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS