-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1133 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating rain exits southeast this morning, a few additional
showers this afternoon. Dry and warming for the rest of the
work week. Chance for showers arrive late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 815 AM Wednesday...

Forecast appears to be largely on track, so no major changes
were needed with the morning update.


As of 610 AM Wednesday...

Made some minor tweaks to temperatures to better reflect current
observations, otherwise the forecast was on track for
accumulating rain to exit southeast this morning.

As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Light rain continues to work across the region this morning along
and ahead of a surface cold front. Wide dew point depressions ahead
of this line have yielded some initial gustiness 20-35 mph before
the surface layer works toward saturation. Accumulating rainfall is
expected to exit to the southeast near or shortly after daybreak
this morning. Cooler air advects in behind the front on north-
northwesterly flow keeping daytime highs generally in the upper 50s
to upper 60s, coolest north. Cooler air aloft will set up some
decent low low level lapse rates, and at least some upstream
moisture connection the Great Lakes will exist. This could yield
some additional low topped showery activity through late this
afternoon, mainly near the mountains.

Overnight tonight, light northerly flow and at least some initial
presence of clouds will help to limit frost formation. Could see
temperatures nudging down toward freezing across some of our Ohio
counties, but probabilities of below 32 degrees have dipped some
over the last forecast cycle. May eventually need a frost or
possibly even freeze warning for some of these locations, but
forecast confidence is not there to expand on our neighboring
watches for now. Based on initial collaboration it also seems as
though those neighboring watches will remain watches for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1129 AM Wednesday...

A warm front will lift north of the region Friday with winds
shifting out of the south in the afternoon. This will mark the
return of warmth across the region with temperatures making it
back into the middle 70s across the lowlands by the afternoon.
Most should remain dry, but a spotty shower cannot be ruled out,
mainly across northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio, closer to
the warm front. An upper-level ridge will also build over the
middle Ohio Valley, reinforcing the warmer pattern.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1131 AM Wednesday...

A large upper-level ridge will reside over the eastern 1/3 of the
country this weekend and into early next week with surface high
pressure over the Atlantic, which will pump warm and humid air
northward into our region. This weekend will certainly feel
summerlike with highs climbing into the mid-80s by Sunday across the
lowlands. Near-record temperatures will be possible Monday at
Parkersburg and Elkins, where the records currently sit at 86
(1991) and 87 (1996), respectively.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will return late Monday
and into Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. At this
time, there are no alarming signs of severe weather for the
long-term period. Things could change, so stay tuned.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

Initial cold front exits southeast this morning taking
accumulating rainfall with it. Cool air advection in the wake
of the cold front will yield a period of MVFR ceilings at the
onset of the TAF period, improving to VFR through late morning
or early afternoon. A few additional instability showers will
be possible this afternoon, mainly near CKB or EKN but
confidence too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Patchy fog may develop overnight, mainly in the mountain
valleys, contingent on how quickly clouds clear this evening.

Winds shift more northwesterly through late morning and
eventually northerly by this evening 8-12KTs with gusts up to
20KTs through the late afternoon. Winds become light and
northerly overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers could affect EKN or CKB this
afternoon. Fog may develop in the mountain valleys toward
daybreak Thursday.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP