-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
115 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure provides dry weather conditions and a
warming trend through the end of the week. Chance for showers
along the Middle Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 900 AM Thursday...

Temperatures continue to steadily warm across the region, thus,
the Frost Advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM. The main
update to the forecast was to increase cloud cover across much
of the FA through late morning given a rather stout stratus deck
across the area. This will gradually transition into stratocu
throughout the morning as insolation/mixing begin in ernest.
Otherwise, did tweak afternoon temperatures up a degree or so
given rather dry BL conditions this afternoon/evening. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.

As of 300 AM Thursday...

Frost advisory remains in effect until 9 AM for portions of the
Middle OH valley and Wood county in WV.

High pressure extending from the Great Lakes, south into the OH
valley and WV will provide dry weather conditions today and tonight.
The relaxed pressure gradient will allow for light and variable
winds to prevail, outside afternoon breezes due to differential
heating.

Relative humidity values are expected to mix down to mid 20 to 30
percent during the afternoon, recovering over 50 percent after 10
PM. Dead and fine fuel moistures may dip below 10% during afternoon,
although winds will remain calm to light for the most part, can`t
ruled out afternoon breezes. This will lead to another day of
marginal fire weather danger.

With plenty of sunshine under dry northerly flow, expect highs to
rise into the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the
low 50s over the higher elevations. A cold airmass remains in place
tonight under clear skies, allowing for a cold night, staying above
freezing for the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1141 AM Thursday...

A strong ridge of high pressure overhead will bring high
temperatures into the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in
the mountains Saturday. Dew point temperatures will be in the 50s,
so it will feel like a comfortable warmth. Weak upper-level
vorticity flowing around the ridge may spark a few afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1141 AM Thursday...

The warming trend will continue into Sunday with most locations
reaching the 80s by the afternoon, even in the mountains. Highs
will reach the middle to upper 80s across the lowlands. Dry
weather is anticipated with not much activity aloft to trigger
thunderstorms. Near-record temperatures will be possible on
Monday, especially in Parkersburg and Elkins where the current
records are 86 (1991) and 87(1996), respectively.

A cold front will begin to approach from the west late Monday and
into Tuesday. Rain chances will begin Monday evening across
portions of southeast Ohio, spreading eastward across the
remainder of the area into Tuesday. Because this cold front
will pass Tuesday morning, it will be in the absence of peak
daytime heating. Therefore, there doesn`t appear to be much of a
severe weather threat. However, stay tuned in case things
change.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will still remain quite mild for
mid-to-late week with highs projected to be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 100 PM Thursday...

Lingering stratocu has mainly exited the area, resulting in
clear skies across much of the region amid a bit of cirrus from
time to time. Widespread VFR continues into tonight amid dry
weather. Most of the area remains mainly clear overnight.
Upslope flow may result in some MVFR CIGs across the eastern
slopes of the mountains, but this is not progged to impact any
terminals. Dry weather continues Friday morning into the
afternoon amid VFR conditions and a bit of developing diurnal Cu.

Light and variable flow is expected today, with calm to light
ENE/ESE flow expected overnight. ESE flow is progged on Friday,
strengthening as the day goes on. Gusts of 15-20 kts are possible
late tonight through the end of the TAF period in/near the
higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR CIG restrictions could occur
late tonight at BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night into
Saturday with low stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW