Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 281616
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.
Today is likely to be the warmest day we will see for the next
week or so as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures so
far are a little warmer today north of I80 and in the mountains,
and slightly cooler in Delta influenced areas. Highs this
afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern Sacramento
Valley may see some triple digits, while the rest of the Valley
should reach the mid to upper 90s.
A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial trough passing to the north tomorrow. This will start
a gradual cooling trend. Additional waves will bring temperatures
down to around normal levels for early next week. No significant
heating events in sight.
An interesting weather fact for Downtown Sacramento, there have
been 15 100 degree or more days this summer. Only one of those has
been in August, and it looks like that may be the only one, unless
today warms up a little more than expected. The average for a
summer is 23. Triple digits have been reached as late as October
10th, so we could still see some hot weather before the year is
Dry weather is expected into next week. Models showing some clouds moving
in Friday from some remnant moisture from ex-hurricane Marie.
Models showing some mid clouds south of I80 late Friday.
12z Nam12 showing potential for sprinkles shifting further south
and east so probably will not be adding them to the forecast.
Forecast looks on track, no changes needed. EK
.Previous Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
Satellite imagery continues to show a large area of high pressure
situated over the Eastern Pacific and building over California. A
moderate onshore breeze continues to blow through the Delta, but
otherwise winds are generally light and skies clear across the
forecast area. Temperatures are running within a degree or two of
24 hours ago.
Benign weather will continue today across Northern California. A
weak shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest
later today. This may bring some clouds to the far northern
portions of the state, but otherwise will have little impact on
local weather. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to
yesterday, ranging in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the
Valley. Mountain temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 90s.
A deeper trough will move through the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing a bit more cooling. Additionally, some moisture
from former Hurricane Marie is still expected to get caught up in
the westerlies and move through NorCal Friday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the latest runs of the NAM 4km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-
NMM all suggest perhaps some sprinkles from I-80 southward Friday
afternoon or evening. Would like to see another series of model
runs before buying into this solution.
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into Monday as
deep short wave system progresses across the middle part of the
U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal. Models then show another significant
pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking across the PacNW
Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing
aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased onshore
VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.
Winds generally below 15 knots except southwest 10 to 20 knots
gusts to 25 knots through the delta.