Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 262237
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
337 PM PDT Tue May 26 2015
Gradually warmer temperatures this week with some afternoon and
evening mountain showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.
Strengthening high pressure brings warmer weather with high temps
peaking at 5 to 10 degrees above normal Thursday into Saturday.
Sunny skies today over most of the area this afternoon, with
temperatures similar to what we saw yesterday. An upper level low
centered over the Pacific Northwest is gradually shifting
eastward, with some weak shortwave energy brushing through. Some
mountain showers are once again developing, though thunderstorm
activity so far (as of 3 pm) has been limited to Nevada or well
to the southeast in Mono County. Some towering cumulus clouds are
developing over the Sierra crest, so could see some thunderstorm
development there and eastward later this afternoon. Overall it
looks like a much less active day than was the case over the
weekend and Memorial Day. Convection looks even weaker for Wednesday/Thursday
afternoons, with just a few showers or isolated thunderstorms over
the Coastal Range and western Plumas County/Lassen NP.
A cool Delta breeze is expected overnight into Wednesday morning.
An atmospheric profiler along the coast at Fort Ord is showing the
marine layer around 3200 feet high, and this will spread inland by
early Wednesday morning. Marine stratus brought overcast skies this
morning to much of the Delta and into the Sacramento metro area,
as well as into the central Sacramento Valley along the I5
corridor, and this is likely to return to those same areas on
Wednesday. These low clouds should burn off by late morning, with
sunny skies developing.
Temperatures could reach the low 90s for the
northern Sacramento Valley on Wednesday. The rest of the Valley
could see temperatures around 90 for Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging builds into the region. EK
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
High pressure ridge will shift east on Saturday and Sunday into
the Great Basin in advance of next low pressure system. Dry
weather, mostly sunny skies, and above normal temperatures will
continue for the weekend. Daytime highs will be a few degrees
cooler from Saturday to Sunday as ridge axis shifts east. Next
system, currently around 150W, will slowly shift southeast into NorCal
by Monday. Models in better agreement over past few runs with best
chances for any precip across northern mountains and have
introduced slight shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday.
This should bring cooler temperatures for the start of
the work week, with daytime highs near or slightly below normal.
VFR conditions expected over next 24 hours across the valley. A
few showers and thunderstorms across higher terrain this
afternoon/evening may lead to brief MVFR restrictions. Delta
breeze will continue to cause locally gusty winds with gusts to
30 kts. Marine stratus will again intrude into the Delta and
Sacramento sites towards morning with locally MVFR cigs.