Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 221245
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
403 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
A brief cooling trend through the end of the week cooling to near
normal by Friday. Breezy north winds Friday afternoon through
Saturday with increased fire danger. Warming Saturday through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California sits under upper level southwest flow between
high pressure over the southwest U.S and a low pressure system
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Onshore surface gradient a bit
stronger than 24 hours ago for a bit cooler temperatures in the
delta. Otherwise temperatures still running a little warmer this
morning. Overall airmass will be a little cooler today as the
upper trough digs slightly into the eastern Pacific so most
locations should see a little cooling. The most significant
cooling will be in the delta influenced areas were the delta
breeze will play a role but with a minimal marine layer affect
will only be a moderate cooling. Overall cooling continues on
Thursday as the upper trough begins pushing into the Pacific
Northwest and a moderate delta breeze continues. Daytime highs on
Thursday will cool to near normal for this time of year. By Friday
afternoon, the upper trough axis is expected to be east of the
forecast area. Surface high pressure nosing into the Pacific
Northwest will bring the beginnings of northerly breezes during
the day. Although relative humidity will be on the decline on
Friday...daytime highs are expected to come in fairly similar to
Thursdays highs. The northerly surface gradient maxes out
overnight Friday and early Saturday reaching about 10 mb between
Medford and Sacramento. A west to northwest upper level flow will
provide minimal upper level support so breezier winds will be
somewhat localized with valley areas likely to decouple. Surface
winds decline by Saturday afternoon as upper ridging centers over the
west coast. Daytime highs Saturday will see a significant warmup
climbing back to well above normal. Continued low RH and
lingering breezy north winds will keep fire danger elevated.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern Sunday into midweek.
Winds will generally be light except for periods of breezy
conditions in the Delta region and over ridgetops. Warming trend
expected again with high temperatures back to around 5-12 degrees
above normal. This translates to highs in the 100-105 degree range
for the Valley and 70s-80s in the mountains.

JBB/CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Generally light winds for TAF sites
around 5 to 10 kts. Occasional gusts up to 16 kts possible for
KSCK.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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