Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 011720 AAA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1015 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather to continue through at least mid-week. Near
to below normal daytime highs expected Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.Discussion...
Morning raobs show a 3 to 9 degree warming trend from Sun...so we
look for a hot Labor Day with max temps equaling/exceeding 100 over
many locations in the valley...with 80s and 90s in the mtns. Today
should be the warmest day this week as a positively tilted trof
moves through the Pac NW and suppresses the strong ridging over
Norcal leading to cooling to near normal temps by mid week.

Nly gradients are forecast to weaken today/tonight as the ridge
weakens...then increase again Wed/Thu with the trof moving through
the Pac NW and offshore flow prevails in its wake. This will
suppress the marine layer and limit the Delta Breeze Tue and Thu
mornings. However...Wed morning may be a transition period as the
NAM forecasts a stratus intrusion into the Sac Vly. Will be working
on that scenario for the afternoon package.

The wind pattern will allow some smoke from the Beaver WF to affect
our Nrn zones including Shasta Co at times...but the bigger smoke
plume from the more active Happy Camp WF complex may spread more
SWwd in the short term and Swd along the coast...per the NAM Hysplit
model run. Some smoke or particulates may reach the N SFO Bay and
then spread into the Srn Sac Vly later tonite and Tue morning
according to the model.  JHM


.Previous Discussion...

A trough will gradually deepen over the west coast from the middle
of the week into next weekend. No precipitation is expected but
some synoptic cooling along with better delta influences is
expected late in the week that could lower daytime highs below
normal.

&&

.Aviation...
General VFR conds over the next 24 hours. Northerly winds over the
northern/central Sacramento Valley gusting up to 20 kt 16 through
00Z TUE, lighter elsewhere. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$








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