Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 242205
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
305 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temperatures will continue through next week. The
Sierra crest will see a threat of thunderstorms Sunday through
much of next week and possibly as far north as the Shasta County
mountains Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Sunday)...
Heights are slowly rising over northern California as high
pressure strengthens over the western US. Breezy northerly winds
continue through Shasta County and down the Valley this
afternoon, though gusts have been decreasing to around 15 to 20 kts
as the surface pressure gradient weakens and upper level support
moves off to the northeast. Due to the warmer airmass and
northerly wind flow, temperatures have been running generally 6 to
12 degrees warmer today than this time yesterday, including many
Sierra locations.

Warming will continue for Friday and Saturday as the upper level
high builds westward. Max temperatures are expected to reach
several degrees above normal, although this is typically the
hottest time of the year for the region. Warm temperatures will
continue Sunday, though models are suggesting a slight surge of
monsoonal moisture northward as a shortwave trough skirts NorCal
from the southwest as high pressure still remains to the east.
This moisture, combined with instability and lift along the
mountains may be enough to produce isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms over the Sierra crest Sunday. Otherwise...look for
continued fair skies and daytime temperatures above normal. Shen


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Medium range models depicting little change through the extended
as upper ridge axis, from the Desert SW, remains just east of
interior NorCal with upper troughing in the EPAC. Southerly mid
level flow progged through the period with some monsoonal
moisture over the higher Sierra Nevada Monday, advecting northward
into the Western Plumas mountains Tuesday, then expanding into the
Shasta mountains Wednesday and Thursday. Elevated convection progs
suggest a slight chance of thunderstorms over these areas during
the afternoons. Fair skies forecast for the remainder of the CWA
with above normal temperatures. Highs in the Central Valley
expected from the mid 90s to around 104, hottest in the Northern
Sacramento Valley, with mainly 80s to 90s for the mountains and
foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

SWly flow alf with broad upr trof ovr NorCal. VFR conds nxt 24
hrs with mnly SKC. Isold Nly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts poss ovngt
into Fri mrng N of KUKI-KCIC-KSVE ln.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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