Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 230016
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
416 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

Cloud cover decreasing and showers diminishing late this afternoon
and evening as ridge of high pressure starts building into the
area. Southerly winds turning to Northerly with the he strongest
winds are expected along the west side of the Sacramento Valley
Sunday. Fog expected to develop in the morning but northerly
winds may keep it from becoming widespread (confined more to east
side of valley and foothills). Visibilities should decrease after
midnight then improve by noon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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