Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 151636
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
936 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal high temperatures continuing into Monday. Breezy
northerly winds tonight into Wednesday.  A slight chance of
showers over the mountains Thursday evening into Friday, with the
best chance over Shasta County.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Upper level ridge of high pressure building over the Eastern
Pacific and into Northern California into Wednesday. Daytime
temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s for the
Valley and mid 50s to low 70s for the mountains which is about 10
degrees above normal for mid April. Although, low clouds made it
into the Delta area to around Cordelia this morning but should
dissipate by 11 am and will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s
today. Northerly surface gradient increased to around 9 mb
Wednesday morning as surface high pressure builds into the Pacific
Northwest and the Great Basin. This will bringing breezy northerly
winds tonight into Wednesday...especially along the North end of
the Sacramento Valley and the west side of the Central and
Southern Sacramento Valley. 925 mb winds around 25 kts Wednesday
morning around 8 am which may bring some stronger gusts.
Little change in high temps is expected as the Cold air advection
will be offset by downslope warming from the northerly winds on
Wednesday.

The ridge shifts to the east Thursday with and approaching upper
level trough. The trough moves through the area Thursday night
into Friday. This will bring cooler temperatures Thursday and
Friday along with some clouds. There is some moisture with this
system with precipitable water values around an inch Thursday
afternoon into Friday. Showers are possible over the mountains
with this system and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm along the
Sierra. Snow levels are expected to be around 9000 ft.


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Mostly dry and benign weather is on tap for this weekend. A few
weak shortwaves could trigger a shower or two over the Sierra Crest,
but otherwise dry weather will continue. Highs looks to continue
the current above-normal stretch, with readings about 10 degrees
above normal for the Central Valley.

After several weeks of quiet weather along the West Coast, a
change may be in store next week. All extended models are now
showing a deep and cold closed low swinging into NorCal sometime
early next week. We`ll be keeping on eye on this potential pattern
change, particularly if models show consistency in future runs.
For now, have introduced a chance of showers for much of interior
NorCal, along with cooler temperatures. -DVC

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue for interior NorCal for the next 24
hours. Generally light winds of 10 kts or less expected for
Central Valley TAF sites. 25 kt SW winds can expected over Sierra
ridges this afternoon. Northerly winds increasing after 12z Wed for
mainly the western side of the Sacramento Valley, gusting up to 30
kts after 15z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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